Modelling the nursing homes system: bed growth, patient turnover and the availability of nursing home places.
This paper uses two simple mathematical models to quantify the potential impact of policy changes on the operation of the nursing home system. The first model shows that the effect of bed growth on admission rates can be substantial and that consequently a slowdown of bed growth can result in a significant decrease in the number of beds becoming available. The second model shows the effect that the balance of high and low turnover patients amongst admissions can have on patient composition and on aggregate admission rates. It is demonstrated that decreasing the proportion of low turnover patients amongst admissions and increasing the turnover of the low turnover group are the most effective ways of increasing the availability of nursing home places. Moreover, such increased availability can be achieved without any increase in bed numbers.
D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia; D001509:Bed Occupancy; D006297:Health Services Accessibility; D006801:Humans; D007902:Length of Stay; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009735:Nursing Homes / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D010343:Patient Admission