title: Rate of incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with compensated viral cirrhosis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Cirrhosis of viral etiology due to hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The current study evaluated the rate of incidence of HCC in patients with compensated cirrhosis of viral etiology.
  
  
  METHODS
  Two hundred fifty-nine cirrhotic patients (66 hepatitis B surface antigen [HBsAg] positive, 166 HCV positive, and 27 HBsAg/HCV positive) were longitudinally examined every 6 months by serum alpha-fetoprotein test and liver ultrasonography. The rates of incidence of HCC were calculated by the person-years method. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative probability of HCC development. Differences in survival time were evaluated by a log rank test. Independent predictors of HCC development were estimated by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During a mean follow-up of 64.5 months, HCC developed in 51 (19.7%) patients: in 34 of 166 HCV positive subjects (20.5%) (mean follow-up, 66.3 months), in 6 of 66 of those HBsAg positive (9.1%) (mean follow-up, 55.06 months), and in 11 of 27 of those with dual HBsAg/HCV infection (40.7%) (mean follow-up, 76.4 months). The rate of incidence of HCC per 100 person-years of follow-up was 3.7 in HCV positive subjects, 2.0 in those HBsAg positive, and 6.4 in those with dual infection. Cumulative HCC appearance rates in HBsAg positive, HCV positive, and HBsAg/HCV positive subgroups were 10%, 21%, and 23% at 5 years, 16%, 28%, and 45% at 10 years, and 16%, 40%, and 55% at 13 years, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that age >50 years (hazard risk [HR], 4.5; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.1-9.4), male gender (HR, 2.8; 95% CI = 1.1-5.3), and HBsAg/HCV coinfection (HR, 2.3; 95% CI = 1.1-4.6) were independent predictors of HCC development.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These findings confirm that male gender and more advanced age (>50 years) are risk factors for HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Furthermore, the data indicate that subjects with dual HBsAg/HCV infection are at highest risk for HCC. Surveillance programs for early detection of HCC should focus especially on these patients.
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000821:virology; D005260:Female; D006509:Hepatitis B / Q000150:complications*; D006526:Hepatitis C / Q000150:complications*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000150:complications / Q000821:virology*; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000821:virology; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012737:Sex Factors