Should endovascular surgery lower the threshold for repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms?
OBJECTIVE
Because endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is less invasive, some investigators have suggested that this increasingly popular technique should broaden the indications for elective AAA repair. The purpose of this study was to calculate quality-adjusted life expectancy rates after endovascular and open AAA repair and to estimate the optimal diameter for elective AAA repair in hypothetical cohorts of patients at average risk and at high risk.


METHODS
A Markov decision analysis model was used in this study. Assumptions were made on the basis of published reports and included the following: (1) the annual rupture rate is a continuous function of the AAA diameter (0% for <4 cm, 1% for 4.5 cm, 11% for 5.5 cm, and 26% for 6.5 cm); (2) the operative mortality rate is 1% for endovascular repair (excluding the risk of conversion to open repair) and 3.5% for open repair at age 70 years; and (3) immediate endovascular-to-open conversion risk is 5%, and late conversion rate is 1% per year. The main outcome measure in this study was the benefit of AAA repair in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The optimal threshold size (the AAA diameter at which elective repair maximizes benefit) was measured in centimeters.


RESULTS
The benefit of endovascular repair is consistently greater than that of open repair, but the additional benefit is small-0.1 to 0.4 QALYs. For men in average health with gradually enlarging AAAs with initial diameters of 4 cm, endovascular surgery reduces the optimal threshold diameter by very little: from 4.6 to 4.6 cm (no change) at age 60 years, from 4.8 to 4.7 cm at age 70 years, and from 5.1 to 4.9 cm at age 80 years. For older men in poor health, endovascular surgery reduces the optimal threshold diameter substantially (8.1 to 5.7 cm at age 80 years), but the benefit of repair in this population is small (0.2 QALYs).


CONCLUSIONS
For most patients, the indications for AAA repair are changed very little by the introduction of endovascular surgery. Only for older patients in poor health does endovascular surgery substantially lower the optimal threshold diameter for elective AAA repair.
Finlayson
S R
SR
VA Outcomes Group, Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, White River Junction, VT, USA.
Birkmeyer
J D
JD
Fillinger
M F
MF
Cronenwett
J L
JL
D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D017544:Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery*; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D017558:Elective Surgical Procedures / Q000401:mortality / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004724:Endoscopy / Q000401:mortality / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D018579:Patient Selection; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014656:Vascular Surgical Procedures / Q000379:methods* / Q000401:mortality