title: Markers of inflammation and prediction of diabetes mellitus in adults (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study): a cohort study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Type 2 diabetes mellitus and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease have common antecedents. Since markers of inflammation predict coronary heart disease and are raised in patients with type 2 diabetes, we investigated whether they predict whether people will develop type 2 diabetes.
  
  
  METHODS
  12,330 men and women, aged 45-64 years, were followed up for a mean of 7 years. We analysed the association between different markers of acute inflammation and subsequent diagnosis of diabetes. In a subgroup of 610 individuals selected originally for an unrelated atherosclerosis case-control study, we also investigated diabetes associations with total sialic acid and orosomucoid, haptoglobin, and alpha1-antitrypsin.
  
  
  RESULTS
  1335 individuals had a new diagnosis of diabetes. Adjusted odds ratios for developing diabetes for quartile extremes were 1.9 (95% CI 1.6-2.3) for raised white-cell count, 1.3 (1.0-1.5) for low serum albumin, and 1.2 (1.0-1.5) for raised fibrinogen. In the subgroup analysis, individuals with concentrations of orosomucoid and sialic acid of more than the median had odds ratios of 7.9 (2.6-23.7) and 3.7 (1.4-9.8), respectively. Adjustment for body-mass index and waist-to-hip ratio lessened the associations; those for white-cell count (1.5 [1.3-1.8]), orosomucoid (7.1 [2.1-23.7]), and sialic acid (2.8 [1.0-8.1]) remained significant.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Markers of inflammation are associated with the development of diabetes in middle-aged adults. Although autoimmunity may partly explain these associations, they probably reflect the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes.
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Medicine, School of Medicine, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil. bbduncan@orion.ufrgs.br
authors.forename: M I
authors.initials: MI
authors.lastname: Schmidt
authors.forename: B B
authors.initials: BB
authors.lastname: Duncan
authors.forename: A R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Sharrett
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Lindberg
authors.forename: P J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Savage
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Offenbacher
authors.forename: M I
authors.initials: MI
authors.lastname: Azambuja
authors.forename: R P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Tracy
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Heiss
mesh_terms: D015551:Autoimmunity; D015415:Biomarkers; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood* / Q000276:immunology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007249:Inflammation; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009961:Orosomucoid / Q000032:analysis; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012794:Sialic Acids / Q000097:blood
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D009961:Orosomucoid; D012794:Sialic Acids