title: The potential effect on hip fracture incidence of mass screening for osteoporosis.
abstract: With ageing of the Australian population, treatment of osteoporosis-related hip fractures will impose an increasing burden on the healthcare system. Based on current age-adjusted hip fracture incidence and population projections for New South Wales, we estimated a 90% increase in hip fractures by the year 2021. Contributing significantly to this increase will be the number of men reaching the high risk age group for osteoporotic hip fractures. A suggested solution--screening and appropriate therapy for individuals at high risk of osteoporosis--may have only a modest impact. Our calculations show that, even with optimistic screening and therapy compliance rates, hip fractures could still increase by over 50%. Other approaches need to be further explored.
authors.affiliation: Department of Nuclear Medicine and Bone Densitometry, St Vincent's Hospital, Sydney, NSW. n.pocock@unsw.edu.au
authors.forename: N A
authors.initials: NA
authors.lastname: Pocock
authors.forename: N L
authors.initials: NL
authors.lastname: Culton
authors.forename: N D
authors.initials: ND
authors.lastname: Harris
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D018890:Chemoprevention; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening; D009517:New South Wales / Q000453:epidemiology; D010024:Osteoporosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D010343:Patient Admission / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D010349:Patient Compliance; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors