title: Some properties of an estimator for the basic reproduction number of the general epidemic model.
abstract: In this paper some properties of a convenient estimator, derived from a martingale estimating function, for the basic reproduction number of the general epidemic model are given for both finite and large samples. These properties give some guidelines for using this convenient estimator. It is shown that it underestimates the parameter and that the bias tends to zero when the population size and the initial number of infectives are increased simultaneously. The bias cannot be removed for a fixed number of introductory infectives. However, the estimator is asymptotically unbiased, conditional on a major outbreak. A simulation study shows that the central limit theorem applies for moderate population sizes.
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences, Wembley WA, Australia. quanxi.shao@cmis.csiro.au
authors.forename: Q X
authors.initials: QX
authors.lastname: Shao
mesh_terms: D015982:Bias; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008954:Models, Biological