What predicts change in marital interaction over time? A study of alternative models.
This is a report on what predicts the deterioration of affective marital interaction over a 4-year period. Four models were compared for their ability to predict Time-2 dysfunctional marital interaction (a set of reliable predictors of marital dissolution). These four models were: (1) baseline physiology at Time-1; (2) interaction physiology at Time-1; (3) a balance model based on the ratio of positivity to negativity at Time-1; and, (4) cognitions about the relationship operationalized from our coding of the Oral History Interview. All four models predicted Time-2 dysfunctional marital interaction. All four models were also able to predict change, operationalized as predicting Time-2 interaction, controlling for Time-1 interaction, that is, using a covariance regression analysis. The most powerful model in predicting change was the balance ratio model.
Gottman
J M
JM
Department of Psychology, University of Washington, Seattle 98195, USA. johng@u.washington.edu
Levenson
R W
RW
D000328:Adult; D001143:Arousal / Q000502:physiology; D003071:Cognition / Q000502:physiology; D003220:Conflict, Psychological; D004243:Divorce / Q000523:psychology; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007398:Interpersonal Relations; D008297:Male; D008393:Marriage / Q000523:psychology*; D011582:Psychological Theory; D013997:Time Factors