Mortality one-year postdischarge from a Veterans Affairs geriatric evaluation and management unit: assessing mortality risks.
OBJECTIVE
To assess at Geriatric Evaluation and Management Unit (GEM) admission factors that affect mortality 12-months postdischarge and to develop a preliminary risk scoring protocol to guide targeting of GEM care.


METHODS
A 24 bed-GEM at a Veterans Affairs (VA) Medical Center.


METHODS
Relative risks (RR) were assessed using prospective data; a risk protocol from 1988-1989 data was tested on 1990-1991 patients.


METHODS
A total of 283 male patients, aged 60 to 102, discharged over 4 years.


RESULTS
Age at GEM admission did not correlate with death (r = .14; P = .145), but did correlate with risk scores (r = .33, P < .001). The risk protocol had a sensitivity of .67 and specificity of 1.00. High and low risk patients had mortalities of 51% versus 20%, a Wilcoxon (Gehan) statistic of 15.22, df = 1, and P < .001. Differences in mortality ceased about 100 days postdischarge. Three univariate RR exceeded 1.00 at a 99% Confidence Interval (CI): IADL score (RR: 1.12; CI, 1.03-1.21); nursing acuity score (RR: 1.78; CI: 1.02-3.11); and a primary diagnosis of pneumonia/sepsis (RR: 3.95; CI, 1.60-9.78). Four RRs exceeded 1.00 at a 90% CI: dementia (RR: 1.78; CI, 1.02-3.09); transfer into the GEM from a medical service (RR: 1.47; CI, 1.02-2.12); deconditioning/functional decline (RR: 1.67; CI, 1.12-2.48); and use of a Foley catheter (RR: 2.22; CI, 1.11-4.45). Thirteen other potential risk factors were found in a multivariate analysis.


CONCLUSIONS
The point estimates of risk factors may help clinicians target GEM care, but the development of a useable risk protocol requires additional work. Causal models may be needed to assess patient conditions related to successful treatment in GEMs.
Williams
A R
AR
Cookingham Institute of Public Affairs, University of Missouri at Kansas City, 64110-2499, USA.
Meuleman
J M
JM
Shaw
M M
MM
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D016002:Discriminant Analysis; D005431:Florida / Q000453:epidemiology; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006757:Hospital Units; D006787:Hospitals, Veterans; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009730:Nursing Assessment; D010351:Patient Discharge; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014481:United States; D014493:United States Department of Veterans Affairs