The impact of smoking on future pancreatic cancer: a computer simulation.
BACKGROUND
We studied the impact of several smoking cessation-based scenarios on future pancreatic cancer incidence in the European Union by means of computer simulation.


METHODS
Among other data, published data on pancreatic cancer incidence rate and smoking prevalence in ten member states of the European Union, and on the relative risk of smoking were entered into a simulation model. Four different scenarios were simulated: one reference scenario, one based on theoretically maximal smoking reduction and two feasible scenarios based on WHO's Health for All targets. In each scenario, pancreatic cancer incidence was computed from 1994 up to the year 2020. Results were extrapolated to the European Union as a whole.


RESULTS
When the percentage of smokers remains unchanged, 627,000 and 588,000 newly diagnosed pancreatic cancer cases among males and females respectively will arise in the European Union up to 2020. Theoretically, if all smokers would give up smoking instantly, this number can be reduced by 133,000 cases among men and 43,000 cases among women. In more feasible scenarios up to 35,500 male and 32,500 female pancreatic cancer cases can be prevented.


CONCLUSIONS
Giving up smoking substantially reduces future burden of pancreatic cancer up to almost 68,000 patients in the European Union up to the year 2020.
Mulder
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I
Department of Chronic Disease Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. ina.mulder@rivm.nl
van Genugten
M L
ML
Hoogenveen
R T
RT
de Hollander
A E
AE
Bueno-de-Mesquita
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HB
D003198:Computer Simulation; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D012042:Registries; D012737:Sex Factors; D016540:Smoking Cessation