title: [Actuarial follow-up after percutaneous mitral valvulotomy. Incidence and event-predicting factors].
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The goal of this study is to analyse the follow-up of patients who underwent percutaneous mitral valvuloplasty and the predicting factors of event-free survival.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analysed 220 consecutive valvuloplasty performed between 1988 and 1996 in order to establish the incidence of events (death, restenosis, mitral valve surgery, New York Heart Association class IV, new valvuloplasty or systemic embolia) and the baseline and postprocedural characteristics predicting events, during a mean follow-up of 42 months (range 1-96 months).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Overall survival was 94.7%, and event-free survival was 59.2% at 96 months. We analyzed the baseline characteristics in order to predict the mid-term outcome (actuarial survival Kaplan-Meier method) that atrial fibrillation (p < 0.01), age > or = 56 years (p < 0.005), and echocardiographic score > or = 9 (p < 0.005) were baseline characteristics related to adverse events in follow up. An index based on the number of adverse factors in the baseline characteristics provided a significant difference in concerning the number of follow up to even-free between the group without baseline adverse characteristics and the group with two (p = 0.008, OR = 4.5), or three adverse characteristics (p = 0.005, OR 6.4). Among the postprocedural characteristics, while patients with mitral valve area after valvuloplasty > or = 1.5 cm2 had an event-free survival of 72.9% at 96 months, those with postprocedural mitral valve area < 1.5 cm2 had an event-free survival of 10.5% (log-rank test p < 0.0001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Mid-term event-free survival after percutaneous mitral balloon valvuloplasty can be predicted by baseline and postprocedural characteristics. Age > or = 56, echocardiographic score > or = 9 and atrial fibrillation are baseline factors related with adverse events. Patients with 0 or 1 baseline adverse factors do not have significant differences concerning mid-term outcome while, those with 2, and above all, 3 adverse baseline characteristics have a poorer event-free survival. Mitral valve area > or = 1.5 cm2 is the only postprocedural independent predictor of event-free survival.
authors.affiliation: Servicio de Cardiología, Hospital Regional Carlos Haya, Málaga.
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Hernández García
authors.forename: J L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Castillo Castro
authors.forename: J H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Alonso Briales
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Alvarez de Cienfuegos Rivera
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bullones Ramírez
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Alvarez Rubiera
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rubio Alcaide
authors.forename: J J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Gómez Doblas
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: de Mora Martín
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zafra Sánchez
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Urda Valcárcel
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Conejo Muñoz
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Malpartida de Torres
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D002404:Catheterization / Q000401:mortality; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008943:Mitral Valve / Q000601:surgery*; D012008:Recurrence
vernacular_title: Seguimiento actuarial tras valvulotomía mitral percutánea. Incidencia y factores predictores de eventos.