title: Predicting deterioration in previously healthy infants hospitalized with respiratory syncytial virus infection.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the incidence of clinical deterioration leading to intensive care unit transfer in previously healthy infants with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection hospitalized on a general pediatric unit and, to assess the hypothesis that history, physical examination, oximetry, and chest radiographic findings at time of presentation can accurately identify these infants.
  
  
  METHODS
  A virology database was used to identify and determine the disposition of all children </=1 year of age admitted to the Children's Hospital at Strong (CHaS) with RSV infection during the 1985 to 1994 respiratory seasons. Index patients were all previously healthy, full-term infants admitted initially to the general inpatient services at CHaS or Rochester General Hospital, a second University of Rochester teaching hospital, whose clinical deterioration led to transfer to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). These infants were matched retrospectively (for year and date of infection, sex, chronologic age, and race) with two hospitalized controls who did not require PICU transfer. Chest radiographic findings, respiratory rate (RR), O(2) saturation, and presence of wheezing at time of presentation to the emergency department (ED) were compared.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the study years, 542 previously healthy, full-term infants were admitted to the general pediatric unit at CHaS with proven RSV infection. Ten (1.8%; 95% confidence interval, 0.9%, 3.4%) were transferred subsequently to the PICU, primarily for close monitoring of progressive respiratory distress. Data for these patients and 7 patients transferred from Rochester General Hospital to the PICU at the CHaS were compared with those for control patients. The mean RR in the ED (63 vs 50), and O(2) saturation in the ED (88% vs 93%) were modestly abnormal in cases compared with controls. Wheezing on examination at time of presentation and chest radiographic findings did not differ between the two groups. A RR >80 and an O(2) saturation <85% at time of presentation each had a specificity >97% for predicting subsequent deterioration. Each parameter, however, had a sensitivity </=30%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Clinical deterioration requiring PICU admission is an uncommon occurrence in previously healthy infants admitted to a general pediatric inpatient unit with RSV infection. Extreme tachypnea and hypoxemia were both associated with subsequent deterioration; however, only a small proportion of patients who clinically deteriorated presented in this way. The clinical usefulness of these parameters, therefore, is limited. respiratory syncytial virus, deterioration, healthy infants, prediction.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital at Strong, University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, New York, USA. jazbrooks@msn.com
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Brooks
authors.forename: J T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: McBride
authors.forename: K M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: McConnochie
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Aviram
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Long
authors.forename: C B
authors.initials: CB
authors.lastname: Hall
mesh_terms: D016022:Case-Control Studies; D005260:Female; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D015278:Intensive Care Units, Pediatric; D008297:Male; D010808:Physical Examination; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D018357:Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018570:Risk Assessment