title: Improved Weather and Seasonal Climate Forecasts from Multimodel Superensemble.
abstract: A method for improving weather and climate forecast skill has been developed. It is called a superensemble, and it arose from a study of the statistical properties of a low-order spectral model. Multiple regression was used to determine coefficients from multimodel forecasts and observations. The coefficients were then used in the superensemble technique. The superensemble was shown to outperform all model forecasts for multiseasonal, medium-range weather and hurricane forecasts. In addition, the superensemble was shown to have higher skill than forecasts based solely on ensemble averaging.
authors.affiliation: Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA. Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India.
authors.initials: TN
authors.lastname: Krishnamurti
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Kishtawal
authors.initials: TE
authors.lastname: LaRow
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Bachiochi
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Williford
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Gadgil
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Surendran