Future demand for dental care in Norway; a macro-economic perspective.
The future demand for dental care in Norway is discussed on the basis of economic theory. During the next 30 years gross national income will increase substantially due to a marked increase in national income from the sale of oil and gas. On the basis of the model we predict that this increase in income will lead to an increase in demand for dental services in the short run, say for the next 10-15 years. To a large extent this increase in demand is supported by evidence from dental epidemiology. In particular, an increasing proportion of elderly dentate people will demand more services. This picture is different in the long run, say from the year 2010-15 and onwards. Evidence from dental epidemiology indicates that at that stage there will be a fairly high proportion of disease-free individuals in the population who will demand less dental care. Such a trend is also supported by economic theory as long as disease-free individuals consume less dental care irrespective of their income.
Grytten
J
J
Institute of Community Dentistry, University of Oslo, Norway. josteing@odont.uio.no
Lund
E
E
D003363:Cost Control / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D003729:Dental Care / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D009664:Norway; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors