title: Lifetime health and economic benefits of weight loss among obese persons.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study estimated the lifetime health and economic benefits of sustained modest weight loss among obese persons.
  
  
  METHODS
  We developed a dynamic model of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and the risks and costs of 5 obesity-related diseases: hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke. We then calculated the lifetime health and economic benefits of a sustained 10% reduction in body weight for men and women aged 35 to 64 years with mild, moderate, and severe obesity.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Depending on age, gender, and initial BMI, a sustained 10% weight loss would (1) reduce the expected number of years of life with hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and type 2 diabetes by 1.2 to 2.9, 0.3 to 0.8, and 0.5 to 1.7, respectively; (2) reduce the expected lifetime incidence of CHD and stroke by 12 to 38 cases per 1000 and 1 to 13 cases per 1000, respectively; (3) increase life expectancy by 2 to 7 months; and (4) reduce expected lifetime medical care costs of these 5 diseases by $2200 to $5300.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Sustained modest weight loss among obese persons would yield substantial health and economic benefits.
authors.affiliation: Policy Analysis, Inc (PAI), Brookline, Masso 02445, USA. goster@pai2.com
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Oster
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Thompson
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Edelsberg
authors.forename: A P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Bird
authors.forename: G A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Colditz
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D002561:Cerebrovascular Disorders / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D005260:Female; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006801:Humans; D006937:Hypercholesterolemia / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D006973:Hypertension / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017059:Models, Econometric; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications / Q000191:economics / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D012307:Risk Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D015431:Weight Loss