The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention.
We estimated the possible effects of the next influenza pandemic in the United States and analyzed the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions. Using death rates, hospitalization data, and outpatient visits, we estimated 89,000 to 207,000 deaths; 314,000 to 734,000 hospitalizations; 18 to 42 million outpatient visits; and 20 to 47 million additional illnesses. Patients at high risk (15% of the population) would account for approximately 84% of all deaths. The estimated economic impact would be US$71.3 to $166.5 billion, excluding disruptions to commerce and society. At $21 per vaccinee, we project a net savings to society if persons in all age groups are vaccinated. At $62 per vaccinee and at gross attack rates of 25%, we project net losses if persons not at high risk for complications are vaccinated. Vaccinating 60% of the population would generate the highest economic returns but may not be possible within the time required for vaccine effectiveness, especially if two doses of vaccine are required.
Meltzer
M I
MI
National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. qzm4@cdc.gov
Cox
N J
NJ
Fukuda
K
K
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000553:Ambulatory Care / Q000191:economics; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000191:economics; D006292:Health Priorities; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007252:Influenza Vaccines / Q000191:economics*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008875:Middle Aged; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D012307:Risk Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
D007252:Influenza Vaccines