Lifetime health and economic benefits of weight loss among obese persons.
OBJECTIVE
This study estimated the lifetime health and economic benefits of sustained modest weight loss among obese persons.


METHODS
We developed a dynamic model of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and the risks and costs of 5 obesity-related diseases: hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke. We then calculated the lifetime health and economic benefits of a sustained 10% reduction in body weight for men and women aged 35 to 64 years with mild, moderate, and severe obesity.


RESULTS
Depending on age, gender, and initial BMI, a sustained 10% weight loss would (1) reduce the expected number of years of life with hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and type 2 diabetes by 1.2 to 2.9, 0.3 to 0.8, and 0.5 to 1.7, respectively; (2) reduce the expected lifetime incidence of CHD and stroke by 12 to 38 cases per 1000 and 1 to 13 cases per 1000, respectively; (3) increase life expectancy by 2 to 7 months; and (4) reduce expected lifetime medical care costs of these 5 diseases by $2200 to $5300.


CONCLUSIONS
Sustained modest weight loss among obese persons would yield substantial health and economic benefits.
Oster
G
G
Policy Analysis, Inc (PAI), Brookline, Masso 02445, USA. goster@pai2.com
Thompson
D
D
Edelsberg
J
J
Bird
A P
AP
Colditz
G A
GA
D000328:Adult; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D002561:Cerebrovascular Disorders / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D005260:Female; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006801:Humans; D006937:Hypercholesterolemia / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D006973:Hypertension / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017059:Models, Econometric; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications / Q000191:economics / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D012307:Risk Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D015431:Weight Loss