title: The relative influence of secondary versus primary prevention using the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel II guidelines.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study was undertaken to project the population-wide effect of full implementation of the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) II guidelines of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP).
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  The ATP II has proposed guidelines for cholesterol reduction, but the long-term epidemiologic influence of its components has not been fully examined.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used a calibrated, validated simulation of the U.S. population, aged 35 to 84 years to estimate the potential for the NCEP guidelines, under varying assumptions, to reduce coronary heart disease morbidity and mortality and overall mortality from the years 2000 to 2020.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Primary prevention would yield only about half of the benefits of secondary prevention despite requiring nearly twice as many person-years of treatment. The projected increase in quality-adjusted years of life per year of treatment for secondary prevention was 3- to 12-fold higher than for primary prevention. To yield population-wide epidemiologic benefits equivalent to NCEP recommendations for secondary prevention, primary prevention would require a nearly sixfold increase in the number of persons treated compared with NCEP recommendations. All benefits of universal success of the NCEP primary prevention "screen and treat" guidelines could be achieved by a 11 mg/dl (8%) population-wide reduction in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels among persons without preexisting coronary heart disease.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The NCEP guidelines for targeted primary prevention can be a useful component of a rational public health strategy, but only as a complement to the more appealing strategies of secondary prevention and "across-the-board" programs to lower all cholesterol levels.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, School of Medicine, 94143-0120, USA. goldman@medicine.ucsf.edu
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Goldman
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Coxson
authors.forename: M G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Hunink
authors.forename: P A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Goldman
authors.forename: A N
authors.initials: AN
authors.lastname: Tosteson
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mittleman
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: M C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Weinstein
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002784:Cholesterol / Q000097:blood*; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000097:blood / Q000178:diet therapy / Q000517:prevention & control; D005260:Female; D006266:Health Education; D006801:Humans; D006937:Hypercholesterolemia / Q000097:blood / Q000178:diet therapy / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017410:Practice Guidelines as Topic; D011322:Primary Prevention / Q000379:methods; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D012307:Risk Factors; D014481:United States
chemical_list: D002784:Cholesterol