[Leprosy epidemiology in a cohort of household contacts in Rio de Janeiro (1987-1991)].
This study aimed to identify factors influencing the development of leprosy (Hansen's disease) in household contacts. A dynamic cohort was analyzed from 1987 to 1991 at the Hansen's Disease Department of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation in Rio de Janeiro. The incidence rate was 0.01694 person-years of follow-up. Nevertheless, for subjects at the end of the first year of follow-up the incidence rate was 0.06385 (end of second year, 0.03299; end of third year, 0.02370; end of fourth year, 0.018622; and end of observation period, 0.01694). A stepwise multivariate logistic regression model was proposed to study the risk of developing leprosy, including co-prevalent cases, totaling 758 contacts. In the final model, the risk was associated with a negative Mitsuda skin test (OR = 3.093; CI 95% = 1.735-5.514), prior BCG vaccination (OR = 0.3802; CI 95% = 0.2151-0.66719), and multibacillary primary clinical form (OR = 2.547; CI 95% = 1.249-5.192). The results showed that both multibacillary leprosy and specific immune status are significant indicators for developing the disease in a cohort of household contacts.
de Matos
H J
HJ
Departamento de Informática Médica, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Av. Prof. Manoel de Abreu 148, 20 andar, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 20560-000 Brasil.
Duppre
N
N
Alvim
M F
MF
MachadoVieira
L M
LM
Sarno
E N
EN
Struchiner
C J
CJ
D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007918:Leprosy / Q000145:classification / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D016015:Logistic Models; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors