Incubation period of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in human growth hormone recipients in France.
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the statistical distribution of the incubation period of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in human growth hormone (hGH) recipients in France.


BACKGROUND
Published papers suggest that the median incubation period of hGH-related CJD is approximately 15 years, but there are as yet no statistical data that support this assertion.


METHODS
Of the 1,361 hGH recipients who were included in this study, 55 had developed CJD at the time of the study. Individual data on hGH treatment history were available. Different mathematical models were used to estimate the statistical distribution of the incubation period. One main feature of the models was to take into account the occurrence of future CJD cases.


RESULTS
Models showed that the mean incubation period was 9 to 10 years, and the 95th percentile of the distribution was 15 to 16 years. Data and models indicated that the incubation period was significantly shorter in homozygotes at codon 129 of the prion protein gene than in heterozygotes.


CONCLUSIONS
The short mean incubation period of CJD in French hGH recipients may be due to high infectivity in hormone lots. Estimates of the 95th percentile indicate that the number of hGH-related CJD cases may continue to increase in the coming years.
Huillard d'Aignaux
J
J
Unité de Recherches Epidémiologiques en Neurologie et Psychopathologie, INSERM U360, Paris, France.
Costagliola
D
D
Maccario
J
J
Billette de Villemeur
T
T
Brandel
J P
JP
Deslys
J P
JP
Hauw
J J
JJ
Chaussain
J L
JL
Agid
Y
Y
Dormont
D
D
Alpérovitch
A
A
D007562:Creutzfeldt-Jakob Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D019382:Human Growth Hormone; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008959:Models, Neurological; D013997:Time Factors
D019382:Human Growth Hormone