title: Sensitivity analysis on a chance node with more than two branches.
abstract: Sensitivity analysis is an essential part of decision analysis. The literature on medical decision analysis suggests the use of two-branch chance nodes in decision trees to avoid logical inconsistencies during sensitivity analysis. The authors show that the two-branch decomposition is not appropriate for sensitivity analysis when multiple outcomes from a single state cannot be disentangled into a sensible sequence of events. They recommend retaining the natural structure of the tree and propose two sensitivity-analysis methods for use on chance nodes with three or more branches.
authors.affiliation: Internal Medicine Outpatient Department, University of Basel, Switzerland. psendi@swissline.ch
authors.forename: P P
authors.initials: PP
authors.lastname: Sendi
authors.forename: R T
authors.initials: RT
authors.lastname: Clemen
mesh_terms: D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D003663:Decision Trees; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000145:classification; D006801:Humans; D008722:Methods; D011336:Probability; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity