title: A model for predicting chronic TMD: practical application in clinical settings.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Substantial cost is associated with the treatment of chronic temporomandibular disorders, or TMDs, and patients with TMDs often experience significant psychosocial distress. Early intervention based on identified risk factors has potential financial and functional benefits.
  
  
  METHODS
  Two hundred four patients with acute TMD were evaluated via an assessment battery that included physical, psychological and social measures. All participants were diagnosed as having TMD on the basis of the research diagnostic criteria for TMD, Axis I. At the six-month follow-up assessment, patients were considered to have chronic TMD if they continued to have TMD pain. This resulted in 144 of the patients being classified in the chronic group and 60 being classified in the nonchronic group.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A comparison of the acute TMD data demonstrated that the group that went on to develop chronic TMD and the group that did not differed significantly in their scores on numerous biopsychosocial indexes. Although several biopsychosocial measures were found to differentiate these two groups before the onset of chronic TMD, logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a two-variable predictive model consisting of the presence of a muscle disorder and characteristic pain intensity (that is, the mean of these three ratings: patient's report of current pain, worst pain in the last three months and mean pain in the last three months) accurately classified 91 percent of the subjects who went on to develop chronic TMD.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  During the acute phase of TMD, two variables allowed for an accurate prediction rate of 91 percent among patients who went on to develop chronic TMD.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This model provides clinicians with the opportunity to identify at-risk patients early and initiate adjunctive or alternative treatments, thus reducing the likelihood of the development of TMD chronicity.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, Division of Psychology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas, USA.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Epker
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Gatchel
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Ellis
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002908:Chronic Disease; D005157:Facial Pain; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007407:Interviews as Topic; D016015:Logistic Models; D008950:MMPI; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009209:Myofascial Pain Syndromes / Q000175:diagnosis; D010147:Pain Measurement; D010554:Personality Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis; D010808:Physical Examination; D011594:Psychometrics; D011602:Psychophysiologic Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013705:Temporomandibular Joint Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000523:psychology