title: Resampling and multiplicity in cost-effectiveness inference.
abstract: We compare published methods for placing statistical confidence limits around incremental cost-effectiveness ratio statistics and show that only a nonparametric, bootstrap approach using polar angles gives completely reasonable results when neither treatment has significant advantages in cost or effectiveness. We also discuss alternative ways to report analytical results using plots, confidence or tolerance limits, and quadrant acceptability fractions. Finally, we use simulation to study the multiplicity bias that can be introduced into ICER confidence limits when only the most favorable results are reported over several possible choices of numerator cost measure and denominator effectiveness measure.
authors.affiliation: Statistical and Mathematical Sciences, Eli Lilly and Company, Lilly Research Laboratories, Indianapolis, Indiana 46285, USA.
authors.forename: R L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Obenchain
mesh_terms: D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D017850:Economics, Pharmaceutical; D017048:Health Care Costs; D017059:Models, Econometric; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric