title: Predictors for recurrence of epileptic seizures in a general epilepsy population.
abstract: The aim of our study was to identify predictors for recurrence of epileptic seizures in a large county hospital population. We identified 956 patients (18-67 years) with ICD 9 code 345 as primary diagnosis, seen at the Central Hospital of Akershus over 7 years (1987-1994). The diagnosis of epilepsy was confirmed for 696 of the patients. These were divided into two groups: (1) no seizures during the previous year (n = 485) and (2) seizures during the previous year (n = 184). To identify predictors for recurrence of seizures, we used neurologic deficit, number of AEDs used, CT-scan findings, EEG findings, aetiology, gender, age below and above 50 years and comorbidity as independent variables in a logistic regression model. In a univariate analysis, the strongest predictors for recurrence of seizures were: age above 50 years (OR = 5.2;P < 0.0001), known aetiology (OR = 1.4;P = 0.04) and use of two or more AEDs (OR = 5. 7;P < 0.0001). In the multivariate analysis age, more than 50 years (OR = 1.7;P = 0.0216) and use of two or more AEDs (OR = 5.6;P < 0.0001) were the only predictors for recurrence of epileptic seizures.
authors.affiliation: HELTEF-Foundation for Health Services Research, Department of Neurology, Central Hospital of Akershus, Nordbyhagen, Norway. mlossius@sia.akershus-f.kommune.no
authors.forename: M I
authors.initials: MI
authors.lastname: Lossius
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Stavem
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Gjerstad
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D004569:Electroencephalography; D004827:Epilepsy / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000534:rehabilitation; D005260:Female; D006760:Hospitalization; D006766:Hospitals, County; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012008:Recurrence; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed