Pleural fluid pH as a predictor of survival for patients with malignant pleural effusions.
OBJECTIVE
To assess the accuracy of pleural fluid (PF) pH in predicting duration of survival of patients with malignant pleural effusions.


METHODS
Analysis of patient-level data from nine sources retrieved from a MEDLINE search and correspondence with primary investigators.


METHODS
Published and unpublished studies that report PF pH values and duration of survival of patients with malignant pleural effusions.


METHODS
Primary investigators supplied patient-level data (n = 417), which was examined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, logistic regression, and survival time modeling to determine the utility of PF pH for predicting survival compared with other clinical factors. The primary investigations were graded for study design.


RESULTS
Median survival (n = 417) was 4.0 months: PF pH (p < 0.0039) was an independent predictor of survival duration. A PF pH test threshold < or = 7.28 had the highest accuracy for identifying poor 1-, 2-, and 3-month survivals. The predictive accuracies of PF pH (area under the ROC curve range, 0.571 to 0.662) and a PF pH-high-risk tumor (lung, soft tissues, renal, ovary, gastrointestinal, prostate, and oropharynx) model (odds ratio range, 2.91 to 6.67), however, were modest for predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-month survival. Only 54.4% and 62.7% of patients identified by PF pH < or = 7.28 or the PF pH-high-risk tumor model to die within 3 months were correctly classified. Weaknesses of the primary data were identified.


CONCLUSIONS
PF pH has insufficient predictive accuracy for selecting patients for pleurodesis on the basis of estimated survival.
Heffner
J E
JE
Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC 29425, USA. heffnerj@musc.edu
Nietert
P J
PJ
Barbieri
C
C
D001826:Body Fluids / Q000378:metabolism*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006863:Hydrogen-Ion Concentration; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio; D016066:Pleural Effusion, Malignant / Q000378:metabolism / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D018700:Pleurodesis; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D015996:Survival Rate; D013997:Time Factors