[The prediction of the cancer incidence and mortality rates in Spain for the year 2000].
OBJECTIVE
To forecast the cancer incidence and mortality rates in Spain for the year 2000, and to estimate the number of new cases and the number of dead patients due to the cancer for this year.


METHODS
Ecological study with time series analysis.


METHODS
Cancer mortality rates in Spain was obtained from 1905 to 1995.


RESULTS
Brow method was applied in order to forecast cancer mortality rates for the year 2000. An estimation of the incidence rates in Spain was obtained from the incidence/mortality rate (1.49 for males and 2.07 for females), given by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). INE's publications were used in order to estimate the number of new cases and the number of dead patients due to the cancer for the year 2000. The forecasting about cancer mortality rates in Spain for the year 2000 were 312.93 in men and 180.56 in women. An increasing in mortality will be produced in the following years. 90,000 men and 75,000 women will be diagnosed with cancer; 61,000 men and 36,000 women will be died due of this disease.


CONCLUSIONS
The trends in cancer incidence and mortality are increasing. These results could be interesting in health policy in order to plan different actions in the future.
Ocaña-Riola
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R
Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública, Granada. ricardo@easp.es
Martínez-García
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C
D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D017678:Sex Distribution; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D013223:Statistics as Topic / Q000379:methods