title: Validation of outcome prediction in elderly patients.
abstract: We recently described an equation for predicting the 1-year survival of critically ill patients aged over 70 years. The aim of this study was to check the performance of this equation in a validation group of 555 patients. The required demographic details (age, diagnosis, acute physiology score) of all elderly patients admitted between 1/4/95 and 31/9/96 were recorded and patients were followed for 1 year. One hundred and six patients died on the intensive care unit (19% mortality) and a further 134 died within 1 year (43% total 1-year mortality). The performance of the predictive equation was modest; the goodness-of-fit p-value was 0.04 and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75. For both groups, the combined 1-year survival of all critically ill elderly patients was 55% but the outcome of patients aged over 85 years remains poor (37%).
authors.affiliation: Critical Care Complex, Norfolk & Norwich Hospital, Norwich, UK.
authors.forename: A K
authors.initials: AK
authors.lastname: Jandziol
authors.forename: S A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Ridley
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D016638:Critical Illness / Q000401:mortality*; D019468:Disease Management; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D015996:Survival Rate