title: [Demographic and curative factors of need for rehabilitation--possibilities and limits of simple time series models].
abstract: Regarding rehabilitation demands, macro-analytical time-series models outline a method for the estimation of effective rehabilitation needs and for explaining the magnitude of the requirements. Their range is limited, in so far as they are unable to clarify the rehabilitation requirement regarding individual micro-level behavioural aspects. For the moment the rehabilitation requirements are hidden units in the models. Differing macro-dimensions have been gradually included in the analysis. The demographic parameters of the potential patients in need of rehabilitation are the fundamental starting point. Rehabilitation requirements are increasingly modelled by the magnitude of the curative requirements. These are characterised in the rehabilitation as "preliminary or follow up". Two examples of simple time-series models in rehabilitation--for the development of rehabilitation demand--illustrate empirically, which possibilities and boundaries are set in view of demographic and curative requirements by the interpretative range of the macro-concepts. What is methodically interesting with it, is how the analytical borders of such time-series models can experience a recognisable theoretical broadening, through a projection in real logistical facts--here in the interaction between prognosis and retrospection.
authors.affiliation: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Abt. Versorgungssystemforschung und Qualitätssicherung.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Spyra
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Müller-Fahrnow
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hansmeier
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bentz
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Tittel
mesh_terms: D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000534:rehabilitation; D003710:Demography; D005858:Germany; D006302:Health Services Research / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009313:National Health Programs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D020380:Needs Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012046:Rehabilitation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012050:Rehabilitation, Vocational / Q000706:statistics & numerical data