[Surveillance of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and studies on its predictive indices in Jiangsu Province].
OBJECTIVE
To study its predictive significance of the direct use of surveillance data of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) collected in Jiangsu province, and find an indicator of choice for qualitative prediction.


METHODS
A correlation analysis between the HFRS incidence rate and surveillance data collected in the past 12 years since 1986 was applied.


RESULTS
There was significant relationship between HFRS incidence rate and indoor density of rattus norvegicus (Rn), proportions of mixed species of rats and Rn with HFRS virus, indices of mixed species of rats and Rn with virus in the spring Relationship between HFRS incidence rate and densities of outdoor mixed species of rats and Apodemus agrarius (Aa), and proportions of mixed species and Aa with virus was all significant in autumn and winter. And, there was significant relationship between HFRS incidence rate during the whole year and annual average density of rats, proportion of rats with virus, index of rats with virus. There was no significant relationship between HFRS incidence rate and human inapparent infection rate. The coefficients of correlation between HFRS incidence rate in the spring and indices of indoor mixed species of rats and Rn with virus were 0.8637 and 0.8295, respectively (P < 0.001). And, those between HFRS incidence rate and indices of outdoor mixed species of rats and Aa were 0.7089 and 0. 7258 in the autumn and winter, respectively (P < 0.01). The coefficients of correlation between HFRS incidence rate in the next spring and indices of outdoor mixed species and Aa with virus in the autumn were 0.7118 and 0.7113, respectively (P < 0.01). The coefficient of correlation between HFRS incidence rate during the whole year and annual average index of rats with virus was 0.9207 (P < 0.001).


CONCLUSIONS
The index of rats with virus was an indicator of choice for qualitative prediction of HFRS, and the density of rats may be the secondary choice.
Zu
R
R
Jiangsu Provincial Health and Anti-epidemic Station, Nanjing.
Wu
Y
Y
Zhu
F
F
D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D005544:Forecasting; D006480:Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D009115:Muridae / Q000821:virology*; D051381:Rats; D012621:Seasons