title: Statistical mechanic prediction of non-Gomperzian ageing in extremely aged populations.
abstract: Observations of large populations of ageing organisms have suggested that the exponential increase in the rate of age-related mortality (Gompertz rule) declines in extreme old age, and that the mortality of the extremely long-lived is independent of age. I show that this phenomenon is an expected outcome of ageing being the effect of stochastic failure of highly interconnected networks of elements with constant failure rates, and does not require the postulation of a separate 'long-lived' population of individuals.
authors.affiliation: Amedis Pharmaceuticals, London, UK. william@bains.u-net.com
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Bains
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over / Q000502:physiology*; D000375:Aging / Q000502:physiology*; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D009026:Mortality