title: Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere
abstract: Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14 degrees C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1 degrees C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.
authors.affiliation: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA. NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD 20910,
authors.initials: BD
authors.lastname: Santer
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Wigley
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Gaffen
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Bengtsson
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Doutriaux
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Boyle
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Esch
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Hnilo
authors.initials: PD
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Meehl
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Roeckner
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Taylor
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Wehner