title: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with hepatic cirrhosis: clinical course and mortality prediction.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We conducted this study to describe the complications and validate the accuracy of previously reported prognostic indices in predicting the mortality of cirrhotic patients hospitalized for upper GI bleeding.
  
  
  METHODS
  This prospective, observational study included 111 consecutive hospitalizations of 85 cirrhotic patients admitted for GI bleeding. Data obtained included intensive care unit (ICU) admission status, Child-Pugh score, the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), organ failure, and inhospital mortality. The performances of Garden's, Gatta's, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II prognostic systems in predicting mortality were assessed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Patients' mean age was 48.7 yr, and the median APACHE II and Child-Pugh scores were 17 and 9, respectively. Their ICU admission rate was 71%. Organ failure developed in 57%, and SIRS in 46% of the patients. Nine patients had acute respiratory distress syndrome, and three patients had hepatorenal syndrome. The inhospital mortality was 21%. The APACHE II, Garden's, and Gatta' s predicted mortality rates were 39%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, and their areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.78, 0.70, and 0.71, respectively. The AUC for Child-Pugh score was 0.76.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  SIRS and organ failure develop in many patients with hepatic cirrhosis hospitalized for upper GI bleeding, and are associated with increased mortality. Although the APACHE II prognostic system overestimated the mortality of these patients, the receiver operating characteristic curves did not show significant differences between the various prognostic systems.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, University of Florida Health Science Center, Jacksonville, USA.
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Afessa
authors.forename: P S
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Kubilis
mesh_terms: D018806:APACHE; D019540:Area Under Curve; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D003422:Critical Care; D005189:False Positive Reactions; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006471:Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage / Q000145:classification / Q000150:complications* / Q000503:physiopathology; D006530:Hepatorenal Syndrome / Q000209:etiology; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D007902:Length of Stay; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000145:classification / Q000150:complications* / Q000503:physiopathology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010343:Patient Admission; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012128:Respiratory Distress Syndrome / Q000209:etiology; D015996:Survival Rate; D018746:Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome / Q000209:etiology