Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: a comparison of three actuarial scales.
The study compared the predictive accuracy of three sex offender risk-assessment measures: the RRASOR (Hanson, 1997), Thornton's SACJ-Min (Grubin, 1998), and a new scale, Static-99, created by combining the items from the RRASOR and SACJ-Min. Predictive accuracy was tested using four diverse datasets drawn from Canada and the United Kingdom (total n = 1301). The RRASOR and the SACJ-Min showed roughly equivalent predictive accuracy, and the combination of the two scales was more accurate than either original scale. Static-99 showed moderate predictive accuracy for both sexual recidivism (r = 0.33, ROC area = 0.71) and violent (including sexual) recidivism (r = 0.32, ROC area = 0.69). The variation in the predictive accuracy of Static-99 across the four samples was no more than would be expected by chance.
Hanson
R K
RK
Offender Behaviour Programmes Unit, Her Majesty's Prison Service, London, England.
Thornton
D
D
D000206:Actuarial Analysis / Q000379:methods*; D000328:Adult; D002170:Canada; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D012372:ROC Curve; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000523:psychology; D006113:United Kingdom; D014754:Violence / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000523:psychology