title: Recent trends in environmental and ecological modelling.
abstract: The paper outlines the history of modelling and presents a status of ecological modelling: what is the modelling effort of various ecosystem and various environmental problems. Typical validation results and prognosis validation results of a eutrophication model are applied as an illustration of what models can do in environmental management. Structural dynamic modelling which considers parameters that are changed currently by optimisation of a so-called goal function is presented as one of the recent development to overcome one of the most crucial problems in modelling, namely to consider adaptation. Two case studies are presented to illustrate this approach, namely application of biomanipulation and eutrophication of a shallow lake. Forecast on the directions of development is finally presented.
authors.affiliation: DFH, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: S E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Jørgensen
mesh_terms: D017753:Ecosystem; D004777:Environment; D005068:Eutrophication; D005618:Fresh Water; D008954:Models, Biological