title: A decade of spontaneous long-term course of psychogenic impairment in a community population sample.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Our epidemiological study demonstrates the spontaneous long-term course of predominantly psychosocially influenced ("psychogenic") disorders (neurotic spectrum disorders, personality disorders, stress reactions and somatoform disorders) in a representative community sample of the normal adult population of Mannheim, an industrial and university town in Germany. The natural spontaneous course of these disorders in a population sample over a long period remains largely unknown.
  
  
  METHODS
  Beginning in 1979 (nt1 = 600) a random population sample was investigated three times over a mean period of approximately 11 years. The last follow-up study ended in 1994 (nt3 = 301). The follow-up sample was representative of the t1 sample. Psychodynamically trained and clinically experienced interviewers used a semi-structured interview and standardized clinical and psychometric instruments. Psychogenic impairment was assessed using a standardized expert rating (Impairment Score, IS).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean sum-score of psychogenic impairment after 11 years exceeded the value at t1. The case rate (point prevalence, ICD diagnosis + clinical cut-off/IS) increased from 21.6% at t1 to 26.2% at t3 in the investigated follow-up sample. Intra-individual correlation of psychogenic impairment between t1 and t3 was high (r = 0.55). We found strong evidence for an unfavorable long-term course of psychogenic impairment and only a weak tendency (23.1%) for spontaneous remission of clinically relevant psychogenic impairment. Within a regression model clinical variables, childhood development conditions and personality traits at t1 predicted psychogenic impairment at t3.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  All clinical variables conclusively indicate an unfavorable spontaneous long-term course of psychogenic impairment. Together with the well-known high prevalence of psychogenic disorders in the normal population, this underlines the need for early therapeutic and preventive intervention.
authors.affiliation: Clinical Institute of Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy, Heinrich-Heine-University Duesseldorf, Germany. matthias.franz@uni-duesseldorf.de
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Franz
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Lieberz
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Schmitz
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Schepank
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008605:Mental Health Services; D011159:Population Surveillance; D015995:Prevalence; D011613:Psychotherapy; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013001:Somatoform Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000628:therapy; D013997:Time Factors