title: Multivariate analysis-based prediction rule for pulmonary embolism.
abstract: The diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE) is still an unresolved problem. The aim of this prospective observational study was to derive and validate a prediction rule (PEscore) by which PE can be diagnosed by easily obtainable and rapidly available investigations. Included were consecutive patients with a clinical suspicion of PE admitted to a community hospital. Risk factors and clinical and instrumental investigations were registered. PE was diagnosed by angiography, scintigraphy, or autopsy. In 168 patients, PE was either diagnosed (angiography, n = 28; autopsy, n = 18) or excluded (angiography, n = 12; scintigraphy, n = 99; autopsy, n = 11). Based on the results of clinical and instrumental findings, a PEscore was derived by a multiple regression analysis, calculated as: [0.29 x proven leg vein thrombosis (0 = no, 1 = yes)] + [0.25 x ECG right heart strain (0 = no, 1 = yes)] + [0.22 x neck vein distension (0 = no, 1 = yes)] + [0.20 x dyspnoea (0 = no, 1 = yes)] + [0.13 x suspicious chest X-ray (0 = no, 1 = yes)] - [0.17 (constant)]. The PEscore was tested further in 139 subsequent cases. In these patients, the PEscore was 0.65+/-0.17 (diagnosed PE, n = 47) and 0.18+/-0.17 (excluded PE, n = 92), respectively (p = 0.0001). Depending on a given PE-score, the level of probability of PE can be assessed. Calculation of the PEscore can be helpful in clinical decisions when PE is suspected.
authors.affiliation: 2nd Medizinische Abteilung, Krankenanstalt Rudolfstiftung, Vienna, Austria. claudia.stoellberger@pips.co.at
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Stöllberger
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Finsterer
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Lutz
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Stöberl
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kroiss
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Valentin
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Slany
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000792:Angiography; D001185:Artificial Intelligence; D001344:Autopsy; D003936:Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007866:Leg / Q000098:blood supply; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010690:Phlebography; D010991:Plethysmography; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011655:Pulmonary Embolism / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D020246:Venous Thrombosis / Q000175:diagnosis