Ophthalmology's future in the next decade: a historical and comparative perspective.
OBJECTIVE
To gain a historical and comparative perspective about the future of ophthalmology within the profession of medicine.


METHODS
A literature search is made of disciplines other than medicine (history, sociology, philosophy, economics, and ethics) in order to assess factors responsible for survival and healthiness of a profession. The "learned" professions (medicine, law, and theology) are assessed. Other "professional" careers valued by society (sports and classical music) are reviewed.


RESULTS
From the perspective of other disciplines, the future of ophthalmology is seen as vulnerable and fragile. Survival of professions, be they classically or economically defined, is linked to societal needs, a profession's unique commitment and ability to provide services to society, and the profession's maintenance of knowledge as well as skill-based services. Historical evidence has shown erosion of a profession's power consequent to capitalist influences, government influences, access of skills by less trained individuals, and elitist posturing by a profession. Comparative evidence has shown societal acceptance of an escalation of salaries for designated superstars, increasing roles and influence of managerial personnel, and trivialization of values other than economic ones.


CONCLUSIONS
Attention to historical and comparative trends by individual ophthalmologists as well as associations representing ophthalmologists is mandatory if ophthalmology as we know it is to survive within the profession of medicine.
Day
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Department of Ophthalmology, California Pacific Medical Center, San Francisco, USA.
D004501:Education, Medical / Q000266:history / Q000639:trends; D005544:Forecasting; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049691:History, Medieval; D049711:History, Modern 1601-; D009885:Ophthalmology / Q000193:education / Q000266:history / Q000639:trends*; D012955:Societies, Medical / Q000266:history / Q000639:trends; D014481:United States