title: Predicting marital stability and divorce in newlywed couples.
abstract: A longitudinal study with 95 newlywed couples examined the power of the Oral History Interview to predict stable marital relationships and divorce. A principal-components analysis of the interview with the couples (Time 1) identified a latent variable, perceived marital bond, that was significant in predicting which couples would remain married or divorce within the first 5 years of their marriage. A discriminant function analysis of the newlywed oral history data predicted, with 87.4% accuracy, those couples whose marriages remained intact or broke up at the Time 2 data collection point. The oral history data predicted with 81% accuracy those couples who remained married or divorced at the Time 3 data collection point. This study offers support for causal linkages between perceptual biases and selective attention on the path of marriage.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Washington, Seattle 98195, USA. carrere@u.washington.edu
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Carrère
authors.forename: K T
authors.initials: KT
authors.lastname: Buehlman
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Gottman
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Coan
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ruckstuhl
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D004243:Divorce / Q000523:psychology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008393:Marriage / Q000523:psychology*; D010552:Personality Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011594:Psychometrics; D015203:Reproducibility of Results