title: Beyond valence in the perception of likelihood: the role of emotion specificity.
abstract: Positive and negative moods have been shown to increase likelihood estimates of future events matching these states in valence (e.g., E. J. Johnson & A. Tversky, 1983). In the present article, 4 studies provide evidence that this congruency bias (a) is not limited to valence but functions in an emotion-specific manner, (b) derives from the informational value of emotions, and (c) is not the inevitable outcome of likelihood assessment under heightened emotion. Specifically, Study 1 demonstrates that sadness and anger, 2 distinct, negative emotions, differentially bias likelihood estimates of sad and angering events. Studies 2 and 3 replicate this finding in addition to supporting an emotion-as-information (cf. N. Schwarz & G. L. Clore, 1983), as opposed to a memory-based, mediating process for the bias. Finally, Study 4 shows that when the source of the emotion is salient, a reversal of the bias can occur given greater cognitive effort aimed at accuracy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus 43210, USA. ddesteno@lynx.neu.edu
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: DeSteno
authors.forename: R E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Petty
authors.forename: D T
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Wegener
authors.forename: D D
authors.initials: DD
authors.lastname: Rucker
mesh_terms: D000704:Analysis of Variance; D000786:Anger; D003071:Cognition; D003463:Cues; D004644:Emotions; D006240:Happiness; D006801:Humans; D007092:Imagination; D007600:Judgment; D016014:Linear Models; D011939:Mental Recall; D008960:Models, Psychological; D009820:Ohio; D011582:Psychological Theory