title: Suicide in psychiatric hospital in-patients. Risk factors and their predictive power.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Psychiatric hospital in-patients are known to be at high risk of suicide, yet there is little reliable knowledge of risk factors or their predictive power.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To identify risk factors for suicide in psychiatric hospital in-patients and to evaluate their predictive power in detecting people at risk of suicide.
  
  
  METHODS
  Using a case-control design, 112 people who committed suicide while in-patients in psychiatric hospitals were compared with 112 randomly selected controls. Univariate analysis and multivariate analyses were used to estimate odds ratios and adjusted likelihood ratios.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The rate of suicide in psychiatric in-patients was 13.7 (95% CI 11.7-16.1) per 10,000 admissions. There were five predictive factors with likelihood ratios > 2, following adjustment: planned suicide attempt, 4.1; actual suicide attempt, 4.9; recent bereavement, 4.0; presence of delusions, 2.3; chronic mental illness, 2.2; and family history of suicide, 4.6. On this basis, only two of the patients who committed suicide had a predicted risk of suicide above 5%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although several factors were identified that were strongly associated with suicide, their clinical utility is limited by low sensitivity and specificity, combined with the rarity of suicide, even in this high-risk group.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Warneford Hospital.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Powell
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Geddes
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Deeks
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Goldacre
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hawton
mesh_terms: D000704:Analysis of Variance; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007297:Inpatients / Q000523:psychology*; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008297:Male; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000523:psychology*; D016017:Odds Ratio; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000592:standards; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013405:Suicide / Q000523:psychology*