title: Predictive markers of clinical outcome in vertically HIV-1-infected infants. A prospective longitudinal study.
abstract: We have investigated the relationship between disease progression and several immunologic and virologic markers of HIV infection. Plasma samples from infants born to HIV-1-infected mothers were collected at birth and at 1, 2, 4, 6, 9, 12, 15, and 18 mo of age and subsequently were assayed every 6 mo for viral load, viral phenotype, and lymphocyte populations. A cutoff level of 25% indicative of a preserved immunologic status, both of CD4+ and CD8+ blood T cells, was associated with significant differences in disease progression (p = 0.04 and 0.02, respectively). Infants with median CD4+ T cells <25% had a relative risk of progression to AIDS 3.35-fold higher than those with CD4+ above this level (p = 0.05). The relative risk of progression to AIDS for infants with median CD8+ <25% was 4.95-fold higher than for those with CD8+ percent above this threshold (p = 0.03). Similarly, a cutoff level of viral load of 5.5 log10 copies/mL was indicative of a worse prognosis. Infants with median viral load >5.5 log10 copies/mL had a relative risk of progression to AIDS 23.72-fold higher (p = 0.0001) than those with median viral load below this threshold. Interestingly, changes from a slow replication and low titer to a rapid replication and high titer of virus and from nonsyncytium-inducing to syncytium-inducing viral phenotype were indicative of progression to AIDS. Our results indicate that biologic phenotype of viral isolates and CD8+ T-lymphocyte percentages in peripheral blood as well as viral load and CD4+ T-lymphocyte percentages could predict rapid progression to advanced HIV-1 disease in HIV-1-infected infants.
authors.affiliation: Division of Immunology, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Resino
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Gurbindo
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Cano
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sanchez-Ramón
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Muõz-Fernández
mesh_terms: D015415:Biomarkers; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D018414:CD8-Positive T-Lymphocytes / Q000276:immunology; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000276:immunology*; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000302:isolation & purification; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D019562:Viral Load
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers