title: A simulated surveillance program for bovine paratuberculosis in dairy herds in Norway.
abstract: Monte Carlo simulation models were used to evaluate the feasibility and potential results of a proposed national survey of the prevalence of bovine paratuberculosis (PTB) in dairy herds in Norway. The expected herd prevalence was assumed to be 0.2% in the simulations. The low sensitivity of the ELISA test, the assumed low herd prevalence, the typical low within-herd prevalence of PTB and the small herd sizes all present problems in detection of the disease. Simulations with 500, 1000, 2500 and 6000 herds tested were done. Our results suggest that a national survey would not be feasible at present, due to the low probability of detecting infected herds and because of the high number of false-positive reactions that would be expected to occur.
authors.affiliation: National Veterinary Institute, PO box 8156 Dep., N-0033, Oslo, Norway. lpa@svs.dk
authors.forename: L G
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Paisley
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Tharaldsen
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Jarp
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D003612:Dairying; D004797:Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay; D005260:Female; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D009664:Norway / Q000453:epidemiology; D010283:Paratuberculosis / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D011159:Population Surveillance; D015995:Prevalence; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity