Comparison of forced-choice and subjective probability scales measuring behavioral intentions.
Three surveys compared the accuracy of predictions based on forced-choice and subjective probability scales. The latter produced significantly more accurate election predictions and significantly reduced the percentage of undecided, or "Don't Know" responses, compared to forced-choice scales in all three surveys. Analysis indicates subjective probability scales decrease sampling error and confirms there is an inherent source of error in traditional forced-choice questions about voting intentions not attributable to sampling error. The results are discussed with respect to (1) sampling and measurement errors in forced-choice and subjective probability scales measuring behavioral intentions, (2) their practical application, and (3) cognitive theory, especially support theory.
Flannelly
L T
LT
School of Nursing, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu 96822, USA. flannel@hawaii.edu
Flannelly
K J
KJ
McLeod
M S
MS
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001290:Attitude; D002755:Choice Behavior; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009042:Motivation; D010555:Personality Inventory / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011594:Psychometrics; D015203:Reproducibility of Results