title: Survival of patients with a new diagnosis of heart failure: a population based study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To describe the survival of a population based cohort of patients with incident (new) heart failure and the clinical features associated with mortality.
  
  
  METHODS
  A population based observational study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Population of 151 000 served by 82 general practitioners in west London.
  
  
  METHODS
  New cases of heart failure were identified by daily surveillance of acute hospital admissions to the local district general hospital, and by general practitioner referral of all suspected new cases of heart failure to a rapid access clinic.
  
  
  METHODS
  All patients with suspected heart failure underwent clinical assessment, and chest radiography, ECG, and echocardiogram were performed. A panel of three cardiologists reviewed all the data and determined whether the definition of heart failure had been met. Patients were subsequently managed by the general practitioner in consultation with the local cardiologist or admitting physician.
  
  
  METHODS
  Death, overall and from cardiovascular causes.
  
  
  RESULTS
  There were 90 deaths (83 cardiovascular deaths) in the cohort of 220 patients with incident heart failure over a median follow up of 16 months. Survival was 81% at one month, 75% at three months, 70% at six months, 62% at 12 months, and 57% at 18 months. Lower systolic blood pressure, higher serum creatinine concentration, and greater extent of crackles on auscultation of the lungs were independently predictive of cardiovascular mortality (all p < 0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In patients with new heart failure, mortality is high in the first few weeks after diagnosis. Simple clinical features can identify a group of patients at especially high risk of death.
authors.affiliation: Cardiac Medicine, Imperial College School of Medicine at the National Heart and Lung Institute, London SW3, UK. m.cowie@abdn.ac.uk
authors.forename: M R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Cowie
authors.forename: D A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Wood
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Coats
authors.forename: S G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Thompson
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Suresh
authors.forename: P A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Poole-Wilson
authors.forename: G C
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: Sutton
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001794:Blood Pressure; D003404:Creatinine / Q000097:blood; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000401:mortality* / Q000503:physiopathology; D006801:Humans; D008131:London / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011379:Prognosis; D012135:Respiratory Sounds; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate
chemical_list: D003404:Creatinine