title: Does polio eradication succeed meeting the target year of 2000?
abstract: The global polio eradication program is under way with the target year of 2000. We reviewed the program progress, in perspective, from the experience of the global smallpox eradication, which is at present a sole disease ever eradicated by orchestrated global efforts. We concluded that despite substantial efforts being made by the World Health Organization and member states with the current progress, it would require additional some three years, namely 2002. This would safe-guard the success. As of January 2000, there are still at least 22 endemic states in Indian Subcontinent and sub-Saharan Africa. Experiences in smallpox eradication, although the disease is different, indicated that to stop transmission in such a large number of endemic states took more than three years, assuming that further support would come toward the final goal.
authors.affiliation: Agency for Cooperation in International Health, Kumamoto 862-0901, Japan. acih@msa.biglobe.ne.jp
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Arita
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Nakane
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs / Q000639:trends*; D011051:Poliomyelitis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D012899:Smallpox / Q000517:prevention & control; D014944:World Health Organization