[Population projections: goals, methods, hypotheses].
Population projections generally use the component method which consists in adapting sample size by age and sex from mortality, fertility and migration hypotheses. This exercise is not always aimed a providing projection data, but may also serve to analyze factors changing in the population. Comparatively long-term demographic forecasts, particularly for mortality, can be made due to the major inertia of demographic phenomena. However, the quality of such predictions depends on the quality of knowledge of past evolution in the demographic factors and on the capacity to forecast their future evolution.
Dittgen
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Institut de Démographie de l'Université Paris I (IDUP), Centre PMF, 90 rue de Tolbiac, 75634 Paris cedex 13.
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003710:Demography; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D005602:France; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D011157:Population Dynamics; D018401:Sample Size; D012737:Sex Factors