title: [13 years old scenarios for this year].
abstract: This article examines two scenarios, published in 1987, for the future development of Norwegian health care towards the year 2000. The scenarios emphasize different external forces and priorities. The 1987 scenarios are then assessed in the light of actual developments during the period. Scenario I describes a picture characterised by reduced economic growth 1987-2000 compared to previous decades, resulting in a year 2000 health care system with limited resources and hard priorities, focus on cost containment, increased efficiency, and search for alternative solutions. In Scenario II, the year 2000 health care system had more resources; however, the demand for services was as high or higher than in the 1980s. Instead of improvements in efficiency, alternative modes of financing health care and social security had evolved. Increasing knowledge among consumers, dissatisfaction and new technology had driven up costs, and health care professions tried to take advantage of the situation. This scenario is characterized by people wanting more, and getting more.
authors.affiliation: Stiftelse for helsetjenesteforskning (HELTEF), Sentralsykehuset i Akershus, Nordbyhagen. knut.stavem@klinmed.uio.no
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Stavem
mesh_terms: D003659:Decision Making, Organizational; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D017598:Efficiency, Organizational; D006285:Health Planning / Q000639:trends; D006291:Health Policy / Q000639:trends; D006295:Health Resources / Q000639:trends; D009664:Norway; D010934:Planning Techniques