Subcritical endemic steady states in mathematical models for animal infections with incomplete immunity.
Many classical mathematical models for animal infections assume that all infected animals transmit the infection at the same rate, all are equally susceptible, and the course of the infection is the same in all animals. However for some infections there is evidence that seropositives may still transmit the infection, albeit at a lower rate. Animals can also experience more than one episode of the infection although those who have already experienced it have a partial immune resistance. Animals who experience a second or subsequent period of infection may not necessarily exhibit clinical symptoms. The main example discussed is bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) amongst cattle. We consider simple models with vaccination and homogeneous and proportional mixing between seropositives and seronegatives. We derive an expression for the basic reproduction number, R(o), and perform an equilibrium and stability analysis. We find that it may be possible for there to be two endemic equilibria (one stable and one unstable) for R(o)<1 and in this case at R(o)=1 there is a backwards bifurcation of an unstable endemic equilibrium from the infection-free equilibrium. Then the implications for control strategies are considered. Finally applications to Aujesky's disease (pseudorabies virus) in pigs are discussed.
Greenhalgh
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Department of Statistics and Modelling Science, University of Strathclyde, Livingstone Tower, 26 Richmond Street, Glasgow, UK. david@strath.stams.ac.uk
Diekmann
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O
de Jong
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MC
D000818:Animals; D000914:Antibodies, Viral / Q000097:blood; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology* / Q000635:transmission; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000662:veterinary; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D005260:Female; D011558:Herpesvirus 1, Suid / Q000276:immunology / Q000472:pathogenicity; D018448:Models, Immunological; D011557:Pseudorabies / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology* / Q000635:transmission; D018357:Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology / Q000662:veterinary*; D018112:Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Bovine / Q000276:immunology* / Q000472:pathogenicity; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology* / Q000635:transmission; D014611:Vaccination / Q000662:veterinary
D000914:Antibodies, Viral