title: [Is the estimation of the progression of valvular aortic stenosis possible?].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  It is of great importance to assess progression of aortic valvar stenosis (AVS) when cardiac surgery is planned for other indications when established criteria for aortic valve replacement are not fulfilled at that moment. These considerations have often been ignored in prospective planning of treatment, necessitating a second cardiac surgical intervention just a few years later. The aim of this study was to establish criteria for estimating the rate of progression of AVS.
  
  
  METHODS
  Clinical, echocardiographic and haemodynamic data were analysed for 169 patients with aortic valvar stenosis (169 men, 88 women; mean age at first cardiac catheterization [CC] 55.2 +/- 15.7 years, at second CC 63.4 +/- 15.6 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The degree of AVS increases exponentially in relation to the extent of calcification (graded 0-3) and the fall in transaortic gradient (TG), from a TG > 0.6 mmHg/ml stroke volume and can be sufficiently predictable for clinical purposes. But neither age, sex nor the aetiology/pathology of the valvar defect have a sustained influence on the progression of AVS.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These data indicate that knowing the current reduction in TG and the degree of calcification makes it possible to assess the likely progression of previously asymptomatic AVS and thus greatly facilitate the decision of whether or not to combine aortic valve replacement with another indicated cardiac operation.
authors.affiliation: Kardiologische Klinik, Herzzentrum Nordrhein-Westfalen, Ruhr-Universität, Bad Oeynhausen. cpiper@hdz-nrw.ruhr-uni-bochum.de
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Piper
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Bergemann
authors.forename: H D
authors.initials: HD
authors.lastname: Schulte
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Körfer
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Horstkotte
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001021:Aortic Valve / Q000473:pathology; D001024:Aortic Valve Stenosis / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology / Q000601:surgery; D002114:Calcinosis / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology; D002648:Child; D002932:Cineangiography; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018450:Disease Progression; D004452:Echocardiography; D005260:Female; D006439:Hemodynamics; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies