title: Factors associated with nursing-home entry for elders in Manitoba, Canada.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  As the population ages, a greater demand for long-term care services and, in particular, nursing homes is expected. Policy analysts continue to search for alternative, less costly forms of care for the elderly and have attempted to develop programs to delay or prevent nursing-home entry. Health care administrators require information for planning the future demand for nursing-home services. This study assesses the relative importance of predisposing, enabling, and need characteristics in predicting and understanding nursing-home entry.
  
  
  METHODS
  Proportional hazard models, incorporating changes in needs over time, are used to estimate the hazard of nursing-home entry over a 5-year period, using health and sociodemographic characteristics of a representative sample of elderly residents from Manitoba, Canada.
  
  
  RESULTS
  After age, need factors have the greatest impact on nursing-home entry. Specific medical conditions have at least as great a contribution as functional limitations. The presence of a spouse significantly reduces the hazard of entry for males only.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results suggest that the greatest gains in preventing or delaying nursing-home entry can be achieved through intervention programs targeted at specific medical conditions such as Alzheimer's disease, musculoskeletal disorders, and stroke.
authors.affiliation: Health Analysis and Modelling Group, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tomiak
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Berthelot
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Guimond
authors.forename: C A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Mustard
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006707:Homes for the Aged; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008350:Manitoba; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009735:Nursing Homes; D010343:Patient Admission; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012307:Risk Factors