Is defense or offense more important for professional football teams? A replication study using data from the 1998-1999 regular football season.
The purpose of the present investigation was to replicate Onwuegbuzie's 1999 study by identifying which variables best predict a team's winning percentage in the 1998-1999 regular professional football season. Findings gave a model containing five variables: (1) turnover differential (which explained 54.4% of the variance), (2) total number of rushing yards conceded by the defense (which explained 21.3% of the variance), (3) total number of passing first downs attained by the offense (which explained 9.4% of the variance), (4) percentage of third-down plays that produce a first down (which explained 4.1% of the variance), and (5) total number of penalties conceded by the opponents' defense resulting in a first down (which explained 4.1% of the variance). These variables combined to explain 93.3% of the total variance in winning percentage for the 1998-1999 season. That the first two variables, which explained more than 75% of the variance, were characteristics of the defense supports Onwuegbuzie's conclusion that defensive gains are better predictors of success than are offensive gains.
Onwuegbuzie
A J
AJ
Department of Educational Leadership, Valdosta State University, GA 31698, USA. TONWUEGB@VALDOSTA.EDU
D000124:Achievement; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D003163:Competitive Behavior; D016002:Discriminant Analysis; D005538:Football / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011336:Probability; D012044:Regression Analysis