[The cyclicity and prognosis of shigellosis morbidity in Russia].
The epidemic process (EP) of shigellosis morbidity proceeds in cycles. As shown in this study, cyclic curves are the sum of polyharmonic fluctuations, being the axis of EP. The duration of one cycle is 18 years, and its configuration is stably retained for a long time. In Nizhny Novgorod shigellosis morbidity is strongly correlated with air temperature is summer at the peak of cyclic rises and moderately correlated in the years of low morbidity. In some cities of the Russian Federation fluctuations of air temperature have been found of occur synchronously with disturbances of the magnetic field of the earth. The character and stability of EP cycles provide grounds for the prognostication of shigellosis morbidity. The current cycle will end in the year 2000, and then natural preconditions for a new cyclic rise will appear.
Kartsev
A D
AD
Military Medical Institute, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia.
D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004405:Dysentery, Bacillary / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D010507:Periodicity; D011379:Prognosis; D012426:Russia / Q000453:epidemiology; D014586:USSR / Q000453:epidemiology; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
Tsiklichnost' i prognozirovanie zabolevaemosti shigellezami v Rossii.