title: Simulated effects on dairy cattle health of extending the voluntary waiting period with recombinant bovine somatotropin.
abstract: We simulated the effect of extending the voluntary wait period by 100 days on disorder-frequency measures that were based on cow-years (from lactations completed during the 4-year simulation horizon), metric tons of milk yield, and lactational incidence risks. A dynamic stochastic discrete-event simulation model that focuses on clinical and subclinical intramammary infections (IMI), plus clinical metabolic (left-displaced abomasum, ketosis, milk fever) and reproductive (cystic ovarian disease, dystocia, retained placenta, twinning, uterine infection) disorders in dairy herds was used. Although the voluntary wait period was increased by 100 days (50 vs. 150), the predicted difference in simulated days to conception was only 89 days for the extended voluntary wait-period group (which we attributed to higher fertility later in lactation). Herds that had a voluntary wait period of 150 days (compared to the control herds' voluntary wait period of 50 days) were predicted to have significantly lower rates of metabolic and reproductive disorders and clinical mastitis on both cow-year and milk-yield bases. Simulated control herds, on average, produced 8539 kg of milk in an average lactation of 325 days and simulated herds with a 150-day voluntary wait period 10893 kg of milk in an average lactation of 409 days. There was a significantly lower predicted rate and risk of culling for reproductive failure in the extended voluntary wait period group. The predicted lactational incidence risks for subclinical IMI were 18% higher for the extended voluntary wait period group - but extending the voluntary wait period by 100 days was predicted not to increase the risk of any of the other 10 disorders.
authors.affiliation: Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA. hga1@cornell.edu
authors.forename: H G
authors.initials: HG
authors.lastname: Allore
authors.forename: H N
authors.initials: HN
authors.lastname: Erb
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000822:Animal Husbandry / Q000379:methods*; D000818:Animals; D001947:Breeding; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005260:Female; D013006:Growth Hormone / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D008414:Mastitis, Bovine / Q000517:prevention & control; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D013006:Growth Hormone