title: Predictive value of the HIV paediatric classification system for the long-term course of perinatally infected children.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To compare the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) paediatric classification system with the long-term course of perinatal human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective study on 366 perinatally infected children followed-up from birth and checked at least every 2 months. Survival, smoothed hazard, adjusted hazard ratio of death, and transition probabilities in clinical and immunological categories were outcome measures.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Survival was 49% (95% CI : 40-58%) at 8 years. The risk of death was high before the age of 2, relatively low between ages 2 and 7, and contained thereafter. Children did not advance through the categories sequentially. Survival at 8 years was 61.7% (95% CI : 49.8-73.6%) in those children who had passed through clinical category A; the hazard ratio of death was 2.5 (95% CI : 1.7-3.8) for 175 (47.9%) children who skipped this category. Transition probability in clinical category B was 39.9% (95% CI : 32.3-45.6%) after one year, but 59.1% (95% CI : 51.4-66.8%) after 5 years. Before 2 years of age, the probability of entry into category C (40%; 95% CI : 35-45%) was higher than that of entry into immunological category 3 (28%; 95% CI : 22-34%). Conclusions The classification system stands comparison with the clinical reality, but the CD4-positive cell thresholds in infancy should be adjusted and category B indicator diseases better distributed to improve their predictive value.
authors.affiliation: Department of Paediatrics, University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Galli
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: de Martino
authors.forename: P A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Tovo
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Gabiano
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zappa
mesh_terms: D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000145:classification* / Q000401:mortality* / Q000635:transmission; D015497:HIV-1; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016019:Survival Analysis