title: Early prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis by urinary trypsinogen activation peptide: a multicentre study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  There is a pressing clinical requirement for an early simple test of severity in acute pancreatitis. We investigated the use of an assay of trypsinogen activation peptide (TAP).
  
  
  METHODS
  We undertook a multicentre study in 246 patients (172 with acute pancreatitis [35 with severe disease], 74 controls). We assessed the predictive value of urinary TAP concentrations measured by a validated competitive immunoassay. We compared the results with those for plasma C-reactive protein and three clinicobiochemical scoring systems. TAP and C-reactive protein concentrations were analysed at set times after symptom onset and compared with the clinicobiochemical systems scores at key times during hospital stay.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At 24 h after symptom onset, the median urinary TAP concentration was 37 nmol/L (IQR 17-110) for severe and 15 nmol/L (5-35) for mild disease (p<0.001). The respective values for plasma C-reactive protein were 24 mg/L (3-34) and 25 mg/L (6-75; p=0.208). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive, and negative predictive values of the test to show severe acute pancreatitis compared with mild acute pancreatitis at 24 h were: for TAP (>35 nmol/L), 58%, 73%, 39%, and 86%, respectively, and for C-reactive protein (>150 mg/L), 0%, 90%, 0%, and 75%. 48 h after admission the values for the clinicobiochemical scoring systems were: APACHE II (> or =8), 56%, 64%, 30%, and 85%; Ranson score (> or =3), 89%, 64%, 38%, and 96%; and Glasgow score (> or =3), 77%, 75%, 44%, and 93%. At 48 h, the values for C-reactive protein were 86%, 61%, 37%, and 94% and for TAP were 83%, 72%, 44%, and 94%. Combined testing of C-reactive protein and TAP was not superior to TAP alone for accuracy.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Urinary TAP provided accurate severity prediction 24 h after onset of symptoms. This single marker of severity in acute pancreatitis deserves routine clinical application.
authors.affiliation: University Department of Surgery, Royal Liverpool University Hospital, UK. j.p.neoptolemos@liverpool.ac.uk
authors.forename: J P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Neoptolemos
authors.forename: E A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Kemppainen
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Mayer
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Fitzpatrick
authors.forename: M G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Raraty
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Slavin
authors.forename: H G
authors.initials: HG
authors.lastname: Beger
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Hietaranta
authors.forename: P A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Puolakkainen
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D002097:C-Reactive Protein / Q000378:metabolism*; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009842:Oligopeptides / Q000652:urine*; D010195:Pancreatitis / Q000145:classification* / Q000378:metabolism / Q000652:urine; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012720:Severity of Illness Index
chemical_list: D009842:Oligopeptides; C080396:trypsinogen activation peptide; D002097:C-Reactive Protein