title: Evaluating the impact of tuberculosis control: number of deaths prevented by short-course chemotherapy in China.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Tuberculosis (TB) is still amongst the most important causes of human morbidity and mortality, killing approximately two million people each year. Standard short-course chemotherapy (SSCC) can rapidly control illness and dramatically reduce the chance of death, but the impact of treatment has rarely been evaluated in these terms.
  
  
  METHODS
  We developed a mathematical model that makes use of routinely-collected data to calculate the number of deaths directly prevented by TB treatment (i.e. excluding those due to reduced transmission). The method was applied to the world's largest TB control programme covering over 500 million people in 12 provinces of China.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Counties which had been enrolled in the programme since 1991 were, by 1997, preventing at least 46% (37-56%) of the TB deaths that would otherwise have occurred. If replicated across the entire TB control programme area, this would amount to 30 000 (range 26 000-59 000) deaths directly prevented each year.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Short-course chemotherapy has substantially reduced TB mortality in half of China. The analytical method described here could be applied to TB control operations in many other countries, and should help to quantify the true burden of tuberculosis alleviated by SSCC.
authors.affiliation: Communicable Disease Control, Prevention and Eradication, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Dye
authors.forename: Z
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Fengzeng
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Scheele
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Williams
mesh_terms: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D017281:Cost of Illness; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D011315:Preventive Medicine; D014397:Tuberculosis, Pulmonary / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000401:mortality* / Q000517:prevention & control
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents