title: Predicting 10-year care requirements for older people with suspected Alzheimer's disease.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To describe the types and costs of care received for 10 years after the identification of an older person with suspected Alzheimer's disease (AD) by using data from 3254 patients with suspected AD who participated in the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS).
  
  
  METHODS
  By using a Markov model derived using grade of membership techniques, the following were determined: survival probabilities at 10 years; years of survival during the 10 years; years in institutions; years with two or more impairments in basic activities of daily living; hours of paid and informal care while the older person lived in the community; and costs of paid community, institutional, and medical care.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Greater degrees of cognitive impairment present when AD was identified were associated with reduced predicted probability of surviving 10 years, increased predicted number of years spent in institutions, increased hours of care required while affected individuals remained in the community, and increased costs of paid community, institutional, and medical care. Substantial differences between men and women were seen: severity-adjusted 10-year costs were almost two times higher for women with AD than for men ($75,000 compared with $44,000); according to sensitivity analysis, average 10-year costs might be as high as $109,000 for women and $67,000 for men.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  AD imposes a substantial burden on older persons. Interventions that slow the progression of the disease may therefore affect community survival as well as healthcare costs.
authors.affiliation: Division of General Internal Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 19104, USA.
authors.forename: B P
authors.initials: BP
authors.lastname: Kinosian
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Stallard
authors.forename: J H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Woodbury
authors.forename: A S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Zbrozek
authors.forename: H A
authors.initials: HA
authors.lastname: Glick
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006285:Health Planning / Q000379:methods*; D006295:Health Resources / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006299:Health Services for the Aged / Q000458:organization & administration*; D006801:Humans; D008134:Long-Term Care / Q000458:organization & administration* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D006278:Medicare / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology