title: [Development of a predictive model for respiratory isolation of patients suspected of having pulmonary tuberculosis].
abstract: BACKGROUND
  As numerous nosocomial outbreaks of pulmonary tuberculosis have been reported during the last two decades, prompt identification and effective isolation of contagious patients should be made a priority in tuberculosis control policies. There is a need to develop a predictive model which would allow prompt recognition and isolation of smear-positive patients.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Various authors have attempted to improve the respiratory isolation policies for patients suspected of having pulmonary tuberculosis. A French multicenter prospective study of 211 patients suspected of having pulmonary tuberculosis established that: 1) the current respiratory isolation policy of suspected pulmonary tuberculosis needs improvement (sensitivity = 71.4%; i.e., 28.6% of smear-positive patients are admitted without isolation) and 2) better interpretation of clinical and radiological data available on patient admission could improve the adequacy of respiratory isolation. Univariate analysis showed that predictive factors of pulmonary tuberculosis were chest X-rays (P < 0.00001), symptoms (P = 0.0004), age (mean: 40.8 years for TB vs. 47.5 for non-TB, P = 0.04), HIV infection (10.6% vs. 28.7%, P = 0.01), immigrant (72% vs. 55%, P = 0.03) and BCG status (P = 0.025), while multivariate analysis demonstrated that chest X-ray pattern (P < 0.00001), HIV infection (P = 0.002) and symptoms (P = 0.009) were independent predictive factors.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  From these data, a model was proposed and evaluated in the derivation cohort using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. We retrospectively studied the predictive model in two populations different from the one from which it was derived. The model would have improved sensitivity of the respiratory isolation policy from 71.4% (current respiratory isolation policy) to 82.4% and 91.1%, respectively. Prospective, multicenter studies are requested to establish the value of such a predictive model in improving the respiratory isolation policy for patients suspected of having pulmonary tuberculosis.
authors.affiliation: Clinique de réanimation des maladies infectieuses, hôpital Bichat-Claude-Bernard, Paris, France.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Tattevin
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Egmann
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Casalino
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Fleury
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ruel
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bouvet
mesh_terms: D015331:Cohort Studies; D003428:Cross Infection / Q000517:prevention & control*; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000150:complications; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010356:Patient Isolation; D013902:Radiography, Thoracic; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D014397:Tuberculosis, Pulmonary / Q000517:prevention & control*