Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission.
OBJECTIVE
To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission.


METHODS
The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria.


CONCLUSIONS
The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.
Departamento de Matemática Aplicada, Instituto de Matemática, Estatística e Ciência da Computação, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brasil. hyunyang@ime.unicamo.br
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Ferreira
D000818:Animals; D000852:Anopheles / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D008954:Models, Biological; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors