First risk functions for prediction of coronary and cardiovascular disease incidence in the Gubbio Population Study.
BACKGROUND
The Gubbio study is an Italian population study which measures the risk factors and incidence of major cardiovascular diseases. This analysis produces multivariate models for the prediction of cardiovascular end-points.


METHODS
A population sample of 2,963 men and women aged 35-74, free from major cardiovascular diseases, was examined in 1983 with risk factor measurement, and a 6-year incidence was computed for coronary heart disease and all cardiovascular (atherosclerotic) events. Proportional hazards models were solved for the prediction of these events.


RESULTS
Over a 6-year period, 74 hard criteria, and 126 any criterion coronary heart disease and 174 cardiovascular events were recorded. Multivariate models showed the predictive power of sex (relative risk ranging 1.63 to 2.60), age (relative risk for 5-year difference ranging 1.38 to 1.48), systolic blood pressure (relative risk for 20 mmHg difference ranging 1.17 to 1.27), HDL cholesterol (relative risk for a difference of 10 mg/dl ranging 0.73 to 0.81), non-HDL cholesterol (relative risk for 40 mg/dl difference ranging 1.15 to 1.27), cigarette smoking (relative risk for 10 cigarette difference ranging 1.21 to 1.28), and body mass index (relative risk for 3 units ranging 0.99 to 1.02). All coefficients were statistically significant except that for body mass index, they were larger for hard criteria coronary heart disease, and their magnitude was similar to that found in previous Italian population studies.


CONCLUSIONS
Traditional cardiovascular risk factors predict coronary and cardiovascular events in another Italian population study confirming previous findings and similar predictive models.
Association for Cardiac Research, Rome, Italy.
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Menotti
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Lanti
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Puddu
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Mancini
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Zanchetti
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Cirillo
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Vagnarelli
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001794:Blood Pressure; D015992:Body Mass Index; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D002784:Cholesterol / Q000097:blood; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012306:Risk; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects
D002784:Cholesterol