Increasing taxes as a strategy to reduce cigarette use and deaths: results of a simulation model.
OBJECTIVE
The aim of this study was to develop a simulation model to predict the effects of taxes on the smoking rate and smoking-attributable deaths.


METHODS
The model projects the number of smokers and smoking-related deaths from a baseline year forward. The effects of taxes of different sizes, indexed and unindexed, and temporary vs sustained are modeled.


RESULTS
The model predicts that sustained tax increases have the potential to substantially reduce the number of smokers and the number of premature deaths, with the effects growing over time. Indexing taxes to inflation stems erosion of the tax effect.


CONCLUSIONS
Tax hikes have the ability to substantially affect smoking rates in the near term. These effects grow over time and lead to substantial savings in lives and health care costs.
Levy
D T
DT
Department of the University of Baltimore and Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Rockville, Maryland 20852, USA.
Cummings
K M
KM
Hyland
A
A
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D017046:Cost Savings; D005544:Forecasting; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006291:Health Policy / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D006801:Humans; D007250:Inflation, Economic; D008875:Middle Aged; D017059:Models, Econometric; D015995:Prevalence; D017678:Sex Distribution; D012907:Smoking / Q000191:economics / Q000401:mortality* / Q000523:psychology / Q000639:trends; D000074606:Smoking Prevention; D013660:Taxes / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D013997:Time Factors; D019460:Tobacco Industry / Q000191:economics*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D026712:Value of Life