[Incidence of colorectal cancer in Bas-Rhin, trend and prediction in 2009].
The colorectal cancer is one of the three most frequent cancers. It concerns more and more men and women and is a of heavy consequence for mortality and treatment. This study attempted to predict the incidence and the number of incident cases of colorectal cancer. The analysis is a Poisson regression based on an age-period-cohort model. The predicted value of the incidence of colon cancer, standardized on the world population (25-89 years old), is increasing with time: it is, in 2005-2009, 41.5 for 100,000 for the women and 104.9 for 100,000 for the men. For rectum cancer, the predicted value of incidence is, in 2005-2009, 22.9 for 100,000 for the women and 37.2 for 100, 000 for the men. During the period 2005-2009, the number of incident cases is, for colon, 1,195 women (the mean increase, every ten years, is 31%) and 2,254 men (the mean increase, every ten years, is 65%). During the same period, the number of incident cases is, for rectum, 640 women (the mean increase, every ten years, is 24%) and 807 men (the mean increase every ten years is 14%). These results are similar to those of other studies in Europe and in the World.
Eilstein
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D
Laboratoire d'épidémiologie et de santé publique, Faculté de médecine de Strasbourg, 11, rue Humann, 67000 Strasbourg.
Hédelin
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G
Schaffer
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P
D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003110:Colonic Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012004:Rectal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D017678:Sex Distribution; D013997:Time Factors