Sensitivity analysis of risk assessment programs to various input parameters.
HESP 2.b risk assessment program was studied in detail concerning the effect of changing different input parameters for the output ADI values calculated by the program. We used the standard Netherlands 1.0 scenario offered by the program. With this we fixed a lot of input parameters which define the area, human and animal recipient parameters etc. The remaining 31 unfixed parameters were fixed at first to "BASE" input values and the BASE output values were calculated by HESP. Later we chose only one parameter at a time and changed it to an another value. The calculated ADI values were then compared to BASE output values. Seven parameters (soil type, soil usage, site length, soil pH, groundwater fraction in drinking water, basement floor type and Qev) were studied. We found, that changing soil pH or Qev have not any influence on the output ADI values in case of any contaminant. Soil type change has not any effect on the output ADI value in case of Pb or Cd but it seems to play important role in all cases of the four organic material we investigated. Changing soil usage have influence on the output ADI value almost in every case. It seems to be linear relation between the maximal concentration of contaminant and calculated ADI. Changing the site length and basement floor type gave in some cases different ADI values compared to BASE values. If we alter the groundwater fraction in drinking water we got usually different ADI values. With Risc Human risk assessment program we got similar results: nor the changes in soil type, site diameter or soil pH gave any changes in output ADI values. Our results hint that using HESP and Risc Human requires enhanced caution.
Vadász
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National Institute of Environmental Health, Fodor József National Public Health Center, Budapest, Hungary.
Hassanien
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László
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Dura
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D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D006801:Humans; D006814:Hungary; D018570:Risk Assessment