A model of the transmission and control of genital herpes.
BACKGROUND
Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission can provide insight into the behavior of the epidemic and the effects of control measures.


OBJECTIVE
To examine parameter sensitivity and assess control strategies.


METHODS
The model simulates transmission in a young, sexually active, nonmonogamous population. The population is divided into compartments representing disease status (susceptible, exposed, primary infectious, asymptomatic, recurrent, vaccinated), and flows between compartments are described by differential equations.


RESULTS
With a base set of parameter values, the basic reproduction rate (R0) is 1.79, indicating that ultimate prevalence in this population will be 44%. The course of the epidemic is most sensitive to changes in behavioral parameters (time nonmonogamous and partner-change rate) and to the probability of transmission during the asymptomatic stage.


CONCLUSIONS
In the absence of behavior change, efforts to control the epidemic must focus on vaccine development and prevention of transmission during both symptomatic and asymptomatic phases.
Newton
E A
EA
Biometrics Unit of Cornell University, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853-4401, USA.
Kuder
J M
JM
D005260:Female; D006558:Herpes Genitalis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D018258:Herpesvirus 2, Human / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008433:Mathematics; D008954:Models, Biological