title: [Incidence and natural history of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To report the natural history of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and hepatocarcinoma (HCC) and to define clinico-biological variables with prognostic and predictive value of this complication.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 543 patients consecutively diagnosed of chronic infection with HCV were included and followed prospectively and observationally regarding the development of HCC by means of semestral abdominal ultrasonography and measurement of serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). To determine variables with predictive value of HCC, the parameters determined at the start were compared, and all subjects diagnosed of hepatoma during the first twelve months after admission were excluded from the analysis. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate both survival and accumulated probability of HCC.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During a mean follow-up period of 28.9 months, an incidence density of HCC of 2.6 per 100 inhabitants-year was obtained (n = 35). 52.6% of those with HCC in the first year were asymptomatic. The only initial variables associated with further development of HCC were age (64.6 vs 58.4 years; p = 0.0039) and alkaline phosphatase (373.5 vs 259 U/l; p = 0.001). Patients with cirrhosis at the start of the study had a higher risk of developing hepatoma than non-cirrhotic patients (RR: 11.5; 95% CI: 4.25-29.9; p < 0.0001). The presence of HCC decreased the survival of patients with cirrhosis (median 20 vs 75 months; log rank < 0.0001), with the exception of patients in stage C of the Child-Pugh classification.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  a) In the chronic infection with HCV, HCC showed to be an oligosymptomatic complication affecting almost exclusively patients with long-lasting cirrhosis. b) Survival in patients in the stage C of the Child-Pugh classification is independently associated with the coexistence of hepatoma; therefore, the early diagnosis of this complication should be restricted to those with a better liver functional reserve.
authors.affiliation: Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital General Básico de la Serranía, Ronda.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Salgado Ordóñez
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Gavilán Carrasco
authors.forename: F J
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Bermúdez Recio
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rivera Jiménez
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: González Santos
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Fuentes López
mesh_terms: D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000209:etiology*; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000150:complications* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000209:etiology*; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies