title: Intervention times series analysis of pertussis vaccination in England and Wales.
abstract: We use the ARIMA model with intervention in order to analyse the epidemiological situation of whooping-cough in England and Wales for the period of 1940-1990. The ARIMA modelling of this illness contains intervention variables, such as the introduction of widespread vaccination in 1957 and the fall in the level of vaccination down to 30% in 1978. The results of this analysis confirm the role of the intervention variables on the evolution of the morbidity due to whooping-cough, by quantifying their impact on the level of the morbidity, as well as the delay needed before they have an influence on the increase of recorded cases of whooping-cough.
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Nantes, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, LEN-CEBS, BP 52241, 44 322 Cedex 03, Nantes, France. girard@sc-eco.univ-nantes.fr
authors.forename: D Z
authors.initials: DZ
authors.lastname: Girard
mesh_terms: D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010567:Pertussis Vaccine / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D013997:Time Factors; D014852:Wales / Q000453:epidemiology; D014917:Whooping Cough / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000517:prevention & control
chemical_list: D010567:Pertussis Vaccine