title: A model for evaluating intervention strategies to control salmonella in the poultry meat production chain.
abstract: A model of the transmission of salmonella through the poultry meat production chain is developed, to predict the effects of intervention strategies for salmonella control. The model first describes the situation before intervention in terms of salmonella prevalences at flock level and some transmission parameters. After single control measures are translated into effects on these transmission parameters, the effects of sets of control measures (intervention strategies), can be calculated with the model. As research data are lacking, the model input parameters were derived from expert opinion. As an example, the effects of two intervention strategies proposed for the Dutch poultry industry are predicted. A sensitivity analysis is performed to indicate where the most effective control measures may be expected. Additionally, the reliability of the model predictions is studied by an uncertainty analysis. The use of the model as a tool for policy makers deciding about salmonella control strategies is discussed.
authors.affiliation: Microbiological Laboratory for Health Protection (MGB), National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Nauta
authors.forename: A W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Van de Giessen
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Henken
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry; D000818:Animals; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000662:veterinary*; D005506:Food Contamination / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011201:Poultry Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D015995:Prevalence; D011640:Public Policy; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012481:Salmonella Infections, Animal / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity