title: Caries prediction by multiple salivary mutans streptococcal counts in caries-free children with different levels of fluoride exposure, oral hygiene and sucrose intake.
abstract: The aims of this study were to assess whether multiple salivary mutans streptococcal (ms) counts have a higher predictive power than a single one, and whether the predictive power of the test is different at different levels of fluoride exposure, oral hygiene and sucrose consumption. Three salivary ms tests were performed at 3-month intervals (positive test: salivary ms >/=5x10(5) cfu/ml) on a sample of 304, initially caries-free, 6- to 7-year-olds. Plaque index was also assessed and the parents filled out a questionnaire concerning sucrose-containing eating events and fluoride exposure. Sensitivity, specificity and Youden's index (J) were used to compare the predictive power. Thirty-six percent of the children developed caries during the 2-year follow-up. The highest J value for a single ms test (the second) was 0.24 (sensitivity 29.1%, specificity 95.4%). The multiple ms test with the highest J value (0.29) was obtained by the dichotomies 0 vs. 1-3 positive tests (sensitivity 50.0%, specificity 79.9%) and 0-1 vs. 2-3 positive tests (sensitivity 31.8%, specificity 97.4%). The predictive power of the multiple test was passable for children with low fluoride exposure and high plaque index (sensitivity 57.4%, specificity 93.7%, J 0.51), while it was low for the other groups. Sucrose exposure did not significantly affect the predictive power of the ms test.sion.
authors.affiliation: G. Sanarelli Hygiene Institute, La Sapienza University, Rome, Italy. spetti@axrma.uniroma1.it
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Petti
authors.forename: H W
authors.initials: HW
authors.lastname: Hausen
mesh_terms: D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D002648:Child; D015169:Colony Count, Microbial; D004245:DMF Index; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D003732:Dental Caries Activity Tests; D003774:Dental Plaque Index; D019422:Dietary Sucrose; D019587:Dietary Supplements; D005459:Fluorides / Q000008:administration & dosage; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D016015:Logistic Models; D009910:Oral Hygiene / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012307:Risk Factors; D012463:Saliva / Q000382:microbiology*; D013295:Streptococcus mutans / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires
chemical_list: D019422:Dietary Sucrose; D005459:Fluorides