ROC analysis of alcoholism markers--100% specificity.
A combination of 4 so-called markers of alcoholism, i.e. methanol, acetone + 2-propanol, gamma-glutamyltransferase and carbohydrate deficient transferrin, was investigated in 341 blood samples from alcoholics and non-alcoholics. From the history of alcohol consumption, four defined subgroups were formed: non-alcoholics divided into (A) 33 persons with no ethanol consumption during the past year and (B) 60 persons with daily consumption less than 40 g ethanol. Alcoholics were divided into (C) 177 persons with no ethanol at the time of admission/first blood sampling (withdrawal therapy) and (D) 71 persons with positive ethanol levels on admission/first blood sampling. All markers showed different extents of overlap between the collectives of alcoholics and non-alcoholics. By logistic regression, a formula was developed combining these markers with different mathematical weights. Thus an "Alc-Index" could be calculated for each individual. The ROC curve connecting all individual values gives an ideal form with 100% specificity and nearly 93% sensitivity. The threshold between the collectives of alcoholics and non-alcoholics was defined by the Alc-Index value 1.7. This was associated with no false positives among the non-alcoholics while nearly 93% of the alcoholics exceeded this index. The ROC-based calculation of the Alc-Index thus seems to be the most effective method for the diagnosis of alcoholism.
Brinkmann
B
B
Institut für Rechtsmedizin, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität, Münster, Germany.
Köhler
H
H
Banaschak
S
S
Berg
A
A
Eikelmann
B
B
West
A
A
Heinecke
A
A
D000433:1-Propanol / Q000097:blood; D000096:Acetone / Q000097:blood; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis*; D015415:Biomarkers; D004797:Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D000432:Methanol / Q000097:blood; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010783:Photometry; D012372:ROC Curve; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014168:Transferrin / Q000031:analogs & derivatives / Q000032:analysis; D005723:gamma-Glutamyltransferase / Q000097:blood
D015415:Biomarkers; D014168:Transferrin; C056759:carbohydrate-deficient transferrin; D000096:Acetone; D000433:1-Propanol; D005723:gamma-Glutamyltransferase; D000432:Methanol