title: TIMI risk score for ST-elevation myocardial infarction: A convenient, bedside, clinical score for risk assessment at presentation: An intravenous nPA for treatment of infarcting myocardium early II trial substudy.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Considerable variability in mortality risk exists among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Complex multivariable models identify independent predictors and quantify their relative contribution to mortality risk but are too cumbersome to be readily applied in clinical practice.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We developed and evaluated a convenient bedside clinical risk score for predicting 30-day mortality at presentation of fibrinolytic-eligible patients with STEMI. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for STEMI was created as the simple arithmetic sum of independent predictors of mortality weighted according to the adjusted odds ratios from logistic regression analysis in the Intravenous nPA for Treatment of Infarcting Myocardium Early II trial (n=14 114). Mean 30-day mortality was 6.7%. Ten baseline variables, accounting for 97% of the predictive capacity of the multivariate model, constituted the TIMI risk score. The risk score showed a >40-fold graded increase in mortality, with scores ranging from 0 to >8 (P:<0.0001); mortality was <1% among patients with a score of 0. The prognostic discriminatory capacity of the TIMI risk score was comparable to the full multivariable model (c statistic 0. 779 versus 0.784). The prognostic performance of the risk score was stable over multiple time points (1 to 365 days). External validation in the TIMI 9 trial showed similar prognostic capacity (c statistic 0.746).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The TIMI risk score for STEMI captures the majority of prognostic information offered by a full logistic regression model but is more readily used at the bedside. This risk assessment tool is likely to be clinically useful in the triage and management of fibrinolytic-eligible patients with STEMI.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02115, USA. damorrow@bics.bwh.harvard.edu
authors.forename: D A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Morrow
authors.forename: E M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Antman
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Charlesworth
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Cairns
authors.forename: S A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Murphy
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: de Lemos
authors.forename: R P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Giugliano
authors.forename: C H
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: McCabe
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Braunwald
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005343:Fibrinolytic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology; D019095:Point-of-Care Systems; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D015912:Thrombolytic Therapy
chemical_list: D005343:Fibrinolytic Agents