title: Predictive factors of post-discharge mortality in the hospitalised elderly.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To study the death rate of noninstitutionalised elderly after discharge from hospital, describe the causes of death and identify predictive factors of mortality.
  
  
  METHODS
  Vital status and cause of death of patients was ascertained by linkage to the death registry I year post discharge. Age, sex, race, marital status, housing and class of ward (to reflect socioeconomic status), presence of carer, Elderly Cognitive Assessment Questionnaire (ECAQ) score, Barthel score, presence of depression, number of chronic illnesses and length of stay in the hospital were studied as potential predictive factors for mortality using Cox proportional hazard regression models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Death occurred in 38 out of 113 patients. The commonest causes of death were malignancy (18%) and cerebrovascular disease (18%). Barthel score and length of stay were independent significant predictive factors of mortality. Elderly with low ECAQ score, with carers and from C class wards also had higher mortality although these results were not statistically significant.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Post-discharge mortality is high in the elderly. We recommend that further studies be done to determine if amelioration of these predictive factors would lead to decreased mortality or improvement of quality of life.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geriatric Medicine, Alexandra Hospital, Singapore.
authors.forename: Y H
authors.initials: YH
authors.lastname: Ang
authors.forename: S F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Wong
authors.forename: K M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Chan
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002423:Cause of Death; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality; D010351:Patient Discharge; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012307:Risk Factors; D012846:Singapore / Q000453:epidemiology