title: Predicting early mortality following percutaneous stent insertion for malignant biliary obstruction: a multivariate risk factor analysis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Percutaneous stent placement is an accepted method of palliation in malignant biliary obstruction. Factors predicting early mortality after this procedure have not been identified.
  
  
  METHODS
  We performed a retrospective study of 141 patients with malignant biliary obstruction who underwent percutaneous stent placement for biliary decompression to identify the risk factors associated with early mortality (< or = 30 days).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of 14 clinicopathological and laboratory variables analysed blood urea, albumin, haemoglobin and alkaline phosphatase were found to be significant on univariate analysis. The age and gender of the patient along with cancer type, level of obstruction, presence of pyrexia and bilirubin level had no influence on early mortality. Stepwise logistic regression identified the haemoglobin level and blood urea to be independently significant in predicting early mortality. Overall 30-day mortality was 20.5% (29/141). Patients with blood urea over 4.3 mmol/l and a haemoglobin less than 10.9 g/dl had a mortality rate of 52% (12/23) compared with 14% (17/118) in the remainder. Using these two variables a regression equation has been derived which allows calculation of the probability of survival at 30 days after the percutaneous procedure.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Laboratory variables in patients with malignant obstructive jaundice can be used to predict mortality following percutaneous stent insertion.
authors.affiliation: University Department of Surgery, Royal Free and University College Medical School, London, UK.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Rai
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Dick
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Doctor
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Dafnios
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Morris
authors.forename: B R
authors.initials: BR
authors.lastname: Davidson
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001661:Biliary Tract Neoplasms / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D002779:Cholestasis / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006932:Hyperbilirubinemia / Q000150:complications; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011183:Postoperative Complications; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D015607:Stents; D016019:Survival Analysis