[Prognostic factors in advanced pancreatic cancer. Multivariate analysis of predictive survival score. University Surgery Association].
OBJECTIVE
To identify prognostic factors in advanced pancreatic cancer and to define a predictive score.


METHODS
One hundred and sixty six patients were included in this multicentre study. Seventeen covariables were prospectively collected for each patient. Covariables associated with survival (p < 0.10) were analysed by a stepwise Cox model.


RESULTS
Four prognostic factors were selected on multivariate analysis: pain (RR 1.5; CI: 1.1-2.0), ascites (RR 1.7; CI: 1.0-2.9), weight loss > 10 kg (RR 1.4; CI: 1.0-2.0), and metastases (RR 2.3: CI: 1.6-3.2). A score was defined by attributing a value of one for pain, ascites and weight loss, and two for metastases. Patients with a score > 2 had a median survival of 2 months (SE: 0.5), and patients with a score < or = 2 had a median survival of 6 months (SE: 0.6) (Logrank p < 0.0001).


CONCLUSIONS
The proposed score may be helpful in therapeutic decisions concerning surgery, palliative chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy. However, this score must be validated on an independent series of patients.
Trigui
B
B
Service de chirurgie digestive, hôpital Tenon, Paris, France.
Barrier
A
A
Flahault
A
A
Huguier
M
M
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001201:Ascites; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009362:Neoplasm Metastasis; D009367:Neoplasm Staging / Q000379:methods; D010146:Pain; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology*; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D016019:Survival Analysis; D015431:Weight Loss