title: Predicting HIV RNA virologic outcome at 52-weeks follow-up in antiretroviral clinical trials. The INCAS and AVANTI Study Groups.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the ability of intermediate plasma viral load (pVL) measurements to predict virologic outcome at 52 weeks of follow-up in clinical trials of antiretroviral therapy.
  
  
  METHODS
  Individual patient data from three clinical trials (INCAS, AVANTI-2 and AVANTI-3) were combined into a single database. Virologic success was defined to be plasma viral load (pVL) <500 copies/ml at week 52. The sensitivity and specificity of intermediate pVL measurements below the limit of detection, 100, 500, 1000, and 5000 copies/ml to predict virologic success were calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of a pVL measurement <1000 copies/ml at week 16 to predict virologic outcome at week 52 were 74%, 74%, 48%, and 90%, respectively, for patients on double therapy. For patients on triple therapy, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of a pVL measurement <50 copies/ml at week 16 to predict virologic outcome were 68%, 68%, 80%, and 47%, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  For patients receiving double therapy, a poor virologic result at an intermediate week of follow-up is a strong indicator of virologic failure at 52 weeks whereas intermediate virologic success is no guarantee of success at 1 year. For patients on triple therapy, disappointing intermediate results do not preclude virologic success at 1 year and intermediate successes are more likely to be sustained.
authors.affiliation: Canadian HIV Trials Network and Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, St. Paul's Hospital/University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Raboud
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rae
authors.forename: J S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Montaner
mesh_terms: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D004311:Double-Blind Method; D004359:Drug Therapy, Combination; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006678:HIV / Q000502:physiology*; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D012372:ROC Curve; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D019562:Viral Load
chemical_list: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents