title: Forecasting enrollments for immigrant entry-port school districts.
abstract: This paper projects school enrollments in Santa Ana, California and evaluates the accuracy of the projections. It emphasizes the distinctive aspects of a local setting undergoing substantial immigrant influx and highlights the uncertainties that must be addressed. I adapt existing forecasting approaches to such local situations, match assumptions to future unknowns, and devise "early warning" thresholds keyed to timely decision making. This hybrid approach offers forecasters a useful point of departure in local settings dominated by wide margins of uncertainty and inherently risky assumptions.
authors.affiliation: RAND, Santa Monica, CA 90407, USA. morrison@rand.org
authors.forename: P A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Morrison
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002140:California; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003710:Demography; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D017058:Mexican Americans; D011156:Population Density; D012574:Schools / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends