title: Critical transitions in colliding cascades
abstract: We consider here the interaction of direct and inverse cascades in a hierarchical nonlinear system that is continuously loaded by external forces. The load is applied to the largest element and is transferred down the hierarchy to consecutively smaller elements, thereby forming a direct cascade. The elements of the system fail (i. e., break down) under the load. The smallest elements fail first. The failures gradually expand up the hierarchy to the larger elements, thus forming an inverse cascade. Eventually the failures heal, ensuring that the system will function indefinitely. The direct and inverse cascades collide and interact. Loading triggers the failures, while failures release and redistribute the load. Notwithstanding its relative simplicity, this model reproduces the major dynamical features observed in seismicity, including the seismic cycle, intermittence of seismic regime, power-law energy distribution, clustering in space and time, long-range correlations, and a set of seismicity patterns premonitory to a strong earthquake. In this context, the hierarchical structure of the model crudely imitates a system of tectonic blocks spread by a network of faults (note that the behavior of such a network is different from that of a single fault). Loading mimics the impact of tectonic forces, and failures simulate earthquakes. The model exhibits three basic types of premonitory pattern reflecting seismic activity, clustering of earthquakes in space and time, and the range of correlation between the earthquakes. The colliding-cascade model seemingly exhibits regularities that are common in a wide class of complex hierarchical systems, not necessarily Earth specific.
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907-1395, USA.
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gabrielov
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Keilis-Borok
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Zaliapin
authors.initials: WI
authors.lastname: Newman