title: A model for estimating mental health service needs in South Africa.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a model for estimating the services and human resources needed to care for people with severe psychiatric conditions in a hypothetical population of 100,000 people in South Africa.
  
  
  METHODS
  Annual mental health service needs were estimated in terms of numbers of daily patient visits (DPV) in ambulatory care, the number of beds required, and staffing. Developed within a spreadsheet format, the model allows for the adjustment of key service variables according to estimated or existing service data.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At 100% coverage, 87 DPV, 28 acute beds, and 10 medium-long stay beds are necessary for a population of 100,000 people. This would require 35.2 full-time equivalent mental health staff: 21.3 for inpatient care, 12.0 for ambulatory care, and 1.9 for management.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Because the model can produce a range of service recommendations, the assumptions that inform it should be clearly stated and justified. This method makes the assumptions on which services are planned explicit and allows for a rational approach to decision making.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, University of Cape Town.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Lund
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Flisher
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Porteus
authors.forename: B A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Robertson
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000554:Ambulatory Care Facilities / Q000458:organization & administration; D006742:Hospital Bed Capacity; D006801:Humans; D008605:Mental Health Services / Q000458:organization & administration*; D008875:Middle Aged; D017146:Models, Organizational; D019964:Mood Disorders; D020380:Needs Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D010561:Personnel Staffing and Scheduling; D011567:Psychiatric Department, Hospital / Q000458:organization & administration; D011618:Psychotic Disorders; D013019:South Africa