Life-expectancy projection by modelling and computer simulation (UKPDS 46).
A method is described for estimating the life-expectancy of cohorts of type 2 diabetic patients, based on computer simulation from a parametric model. The method can be used where non-parametric methods, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimate, fail due to lack of the data. The simulation algorithm combines observed and modelled information to estimate the life-expectancy implications of event rates observed within a study. The use of bootstrap methods to estimate confidence intervals is discussed. The methods are illustrated with results that have been previously published, without derivation, in a health economic analysis of tight blood pressure (BP) control in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS), and the application to other health economic analyses of UKPDS data is discussed.
Stevens
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R
Diabetes Trials Unit, Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Infirmary, Woodstock Road, OX2 6HE, Oxford, UK. richard.stevens@dtu.ox.ac.uk
Adler
A
A
Gray
A
A
Briggs
A
A
Holman
R
R
D000465:Algorithms; D001794:Blood Pressure; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003198:Computer Simulation; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology* / Q000534:rehabilitation; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000188:drug therapy*; D008017:Life Expectancy; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015337:Multicenter Studies as Topic; D010353:Patient Education as Topic; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic; D015996:Survival Rate; D006113:United Kingdom