External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings.
A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed significantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model successfully simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature variations, indicating that the climate response on these scales is strongly influenced by external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year land temperature variations are due to changes in external forcings. Anthropogenic global warming under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a rate similar to that observed in recent decades.
Stott
P A
PA
Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SY, UK. pastott@meto.gov.uk
Tett
S F
SF
Jones
G S
GS
Allen
M R
MR
Mitchell
J F
JF
Jenkins
G J
GJ