title: External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings.
abstract: A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed significantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model successfully simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature variations, indicating that the climate response on these scales is strongly influenced by external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year land temperature variations are due to changes in external forcings. Anthropogenic global warming under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a rate similar to that observed in recent decades.
authors: Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SY, UK. pastott@meto.gov.uk
authors: P A
authors: PA
authors: Stott
authors: S F
authors: SF
authors: Tett
authors: G S
authors: GS
authors: Jones
authors: M R
authors: MR
authors: Allen
authors: J F
authors: JF
authors: Mitchell
authors: G J
authors: GJ
authors: Jenkins