title: Prognostic parameters for flare in systemic lupus erythematosus.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To characterize prognostic parameters for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares.
  
  
  METHODS
  In a prospective study, 120 SLE patients attending our out-patient clinic were evaluated every 3 months for 2 yr. At every visit clinical manifestations and laboratory parameters were assessed and the SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI) was determined. A correlation analysis of the number of flares in the first year and SLEDAI as a marker of disease activity after 1 and 2 yr with several parameters determined at the start of the study was performed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Flares were predicted by erythrocyte sedimentation rate (P=0.001), anaemia (P=0.006) and lymphopenia (P=0.005). The SLEDAI after 1 yr was predicted by the titre of antinuclear antibodies (P=0.009), antibodies against double-stranded DNA (P=0.007), lymphopenia (P=0.007), anaemia (P=0.0002) and SLEDAI determined at the start of the study (P=0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Anaemia and lymphopenia predict both flares and SLEDAI within the next year of follow-up.
authors.affiliation: Abteilung Klinische Immunologie, Medizinische Hochschule Hannover, Carl-Neuberg-Strasse 1, D-30625 Hannover, Germany.
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Mirzayan
authors.forename: R E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Schmidt
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Witte
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000740:Anemia / Q000209:etiology; D000974:Antibodies, Antinuclear / Q000032:analysis; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000032:analysis; D001799:Blood Sedimentation; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008180:Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic / Q000276:immunology / Q000473:pathology*; D008231:Lymphopenia; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies
chemical_list: D000974:Antibodies, Antinuclear; D015415:Biomarkers