title: Homocysteine and coronary heart disease in the Caerphilly cohort: a 10 year follow up.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Prospective assessment of the risk of coronary heart disease associated with total serum homocyst(e)ine (homocysteine) concentration.
  
  
  METHODS
  Nested case-control study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Caerphilly and surrounding villages in south Wales, UK.
  
  
  METHODS
  2290 men who participated in phase II of the study in 1984. After a mean follow up of 10 years, 312 men developed coronary heart disease and were compared with 1248 randomly selected, age frequency matched controls.
  
  
  METHODS
  Acute myocardial infarction or death from coronary heart disease.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The geometric mean serum homocysteine concentration was higher in cases (12.2 micromol/l, 95% confidence interval (CI) 11.8 to 12.6 micromol/l) than in controls (11.8 micromol/l, 95% CI 11.3 to 12.5 micromol/l) (p = 0.09). There was a graded increase in the odds ratio of coronary heart disease across quintiles of the homocysteine concentration distribution compared with the first (p = 0.04), which was attenuated when adjusted for confounding variables (p = 0.4). There was a small but non-significant increase in the adjusted odds ratio of coronary heart disease per standard deviation change in the log distribution of homocysteine concentration (OR = 1.07 (95% CI.93 to 1.24), p = 0.34). Comparing the top quintile of the homocysteine concentration with the remaining 80%, the adjusted odds ratio of coronary heart disease was 1.03 (95% CI 0.73 to 1.45) (p = 0.8) and comparing the top 5% with the remaining 95% it was 1.05 (95% CI 0.56 to 1.95) (p = 0.9).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These findings do not support the hypothesis that a raised homocysteine concentration is a strong independent risk factor for coronary heart disease. Randomised controlled trials of homocysteine lowering treatment such as folic acid are needed before generalizing the early positive results of observational studies.
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Medicine, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, Whiteladies Rd, Bristol BS8 2PR, UK. una.fallon@bristol.ac.uk
authors.forename: U B
authors.initials: UB
authors.lastname: Fallon
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ben-Shlomo
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Elwood
authors.forename: J B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Ubbink
authors.forename: G D
authors.initials: GD
authors.lastname: Smith
mesh_terms: D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000097:blood* / Q000209:etiology; D004032:Diet; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006710:Homocysteine / Q000097:blood*; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008055:Lipids / Q000097:blood; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D008055:Lipids; D006710:Homocysteine