title: A new and accurate prediction model for growth response to growth hormone treatment in children with growth hormone deficiency.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To identify parameters which predict individual growth response to recombinant human GH (rhGH) therapy and to combine these parameters in a prediction model.
  
  
  METHODS
  Fifty-eight prepubertal patients with GH deficiency (17 females) participated in this prospective multicenter trial with 1 year of follow-up.
  
  
  METHODS
  Auxological measurements, parameters of GH status and markers of bone metabolism were measured at baseline and at 1, 3 and 6 months after the start of rhGH treatment. Correlations with height velocity during the first 12 months of treatment (HV+12) were calculated. Prediction models were derived by multiple regression analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The model which best predicted HV+12 combined the following parameters: pretreatment bone age retardation as a fraction of chronological age, pretreatment serum levels of IGF-I, urinary levels of deoxypyridinoline (a marker of bone resorption) after 1 month of treatment and height velocity after 3 months of treatment. This model explained 89% of the variation in HV+12 with a standard deviation of the residuals of 0.93 cm/year. Defining successful rhGH therapy as a doubling of pretreatment height velocity, the model had a specificity of 90% and a sensitivity of 100% in predicting therapeutic success.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This model is an accurate and practicable tool to predict growth response in GH-deficient children. It may help to optimize rhGH therapy by individual dose adjustment and contribute to improved overall outcomes.
authors.affiliation: Children's Hospital, University of Cologne, Joseph-Stelzman-Strasse 9, 50924 Cologne, Germany. eckhard.schoenau@medizin.uni-koeln.de
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Schönau
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Westermann
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Rauch
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Stabrey
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Wassmer
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Keller
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Brämswig
authors.forename: W F
authors.initials: WF
authors.lastname: Blum
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000596:Amino Acids / Q000652:urine; D001827:Body Height; D001846:Bone Development; D001862:Bone Resorption; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006128:Growth; D019382:Human Growth Hormone / Q000172:deficiency* / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D018972:Insulin-Like Growth Factor Binding Protein 3 / Q000097:blood; D007334:Insulin-Like Growth Factor I / Q000032:analysis; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012044:Regression Analysis; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D000596:Amino Acids; D018972:Insulin-Like Growth Factor Binding Protein 3; D019382:Human Growth Hormone; D007334:Insulin-Like Growth Factor I; C036020:deoxypyridinoline