title: A prospective study on the prognosis of multiple sclerosis.
abstract: Two hundred and twenty-four patients at their first diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS) were prospectively followed for a mean period of 9.78 years. We considered as endpoints the time to reach non-reversible disability levels corresponding to EDSS scores of 4.0 and 6.0, and the beginning of a secondary progressive phase in the relapsing-remitting subgroup of patients. An initially progressive course and higher basal EDSS scores proved to be the best predictors of unfavorable prognosis. A greater number of functional systems involved at onset as well as higher residual deficits in pyramidal, visual, sphincteric and cerebellar systems were other factors predictive of a poor outcome, whereas sensory system involvement turned out to be favorable. A longer first inter-attack interval was associated with a better prognosis. However, overall number of relapses in the first two years of the disease was of no prognostic value. The presence of oligoclonal banding in the cerebrospinal fluid and a cerebral MRI exam strongly suggestive or suggestive of MS in the early phases of the disease were associated with a higher probability of a worse outcome.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, University of Florence, Italy.
authors.forename: M P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Amato
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Ponziani
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017668:Age of Onset; D001921:Brain / Q000503:physiopathology; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009103:Multiple Sclerosis / Q000503:physiopathology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012008:Recurrence; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors