[Deciding in conditions of uncertainty: the Delphi method and its use in the formulation of guidelines].
The purpose of this paper is to analyze one of the most powerful tools in the decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, the Delphi method, and to verify the related interest of scientific world, particularly, for formulation of guidelines. The method combines the expert opinion preventing biases due to institutional role, status or dominant personality. In the text we explain the methodology and the steps through which it is possible to realize the consensus; we schematized in a didactic manner all the phases for an operational approach of the reader. The search by the most diffused biomedical database (Medline) individualized 623 citations, 7 of which are guidelines (3 of remarkable importance). In conclusion, the Delphi method may be considered particularly interesting for its theoretical assumptions and it can be used as reference tool for assuming decisions in the formulation of clinical practice guidelines as objectively as possible.
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Unità Operativa di Metodologia Clinica, A.R.N.A.S. Civico e Benfratelli, G. Di Cristina, M. Ascoli, Palermo. s.corrao@tiscalinet.it
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D003663:Decision Trees; D003697:Delphi Technique; D017408:Guidelines as Topic; D016247:Information Storage and Retrieval; D016239:MEDLINE
Decidere in condizioni di incertezza: il metodo Delfi e il suo utilizzo per la formulazione di linee-guida.