[A study on the trend of tuberculosis in an area of Shanghai City using mathematical model].
A widely-used mathematical model (compartmental model) in epidemiological studies was utilized to analyze the tuberculosis situation in area Y of Shanghai from 1971 till 1994. In this model, the whole population was divided into 5 groups, (susceptible, latent, prevalent, healed and immune). Six parameters (effective BCG coverage, immune loss rate, infection rate, disease risk, cure rate and heal loss rate) were introduced and discussed to describe the transmission of tuberculosis. The computed tuberculosis data from this model agree quite well with the observed data. The results show that the susceptible group is the largest among all groups. In 1994, the annual risk of infection was estimated to be 0.26%. It is predicted that elderly people will comprise an increasing percentage of tuberculosis patients in the future. It is also found that it will still take a long time to eliminate tuberculosis under current medical situations.
Fang
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Department of Epidemiology and Environmental Health Juntendo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012306:Risk; D013997:Time Factors; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology*