Climate change and mosquito-borne disease.
Global atmospheric temperatures are presently in a warming phase that began 250--300 years ago. Speculations on the potential impact of continued warming on human health often focus on mosquito-borne diseases. Elementary models suggest that higher global temperatures will enhance their transmission rates and extend their geographic ranges. However, the histories of three such diseases--malaria, yellow fever, and dengue--reveal that climate has rarely been the principal determinant of their prevalence or range; human activities and their impact on local ecology have generally been much more significant. It is therefore inappropriate to use climate-based models to predict future prevalence.
Reiter
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Dengue Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, San Juan, Puerto Rico 00920-3860. preiter@cdc.gov
D000818:Animals; D009033:Culicidae; D003715:Dengue / Q000635:transmission; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D004782:Environmental Health; D005544:Forecasting; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors; D008288:Malaria / Q000635:transmission; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011634:Public Health; D015004:Yellow Fever / Q000635:transmission