The future of chronic diseases.
Major chronic diseases continue to be the main health scourge of the most developed countries, have only recently been retreating in frequency in the fledgling market economies, and are becoming dominant in many populous areas of the developing world. The descriptive evidence from the developments of the near past strongly suggests that much of the control outcomes have already been achieved with the existent imperfect causative knowledge. The continuation of desirable trends in major chronic diseases in some places like Central & Eastern Europe, is uncertain within the intermediate time range without gaining more etiological clues, among which the role of medical care is worthy of reconsideration. Other factors can grow in importance, like obesity, which may be freed from the suppressive influence of cigarette smoking to trigger major mass pathologies, like type 2 diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, some cancers etc. The role of social underpriviledge seems recalcitrant, although the part played by social share of biological risk agents may diminish in response to educational persuasion. The remotest destinies of some chronic diseases may depend on the mixture of external and genetic influences ending as predispositions towards some ailments, antecedents of which might have protected their carriers from dangers of the past unfriendly environment, like obesity (or diabetes) against famine, or hypertension against inefficient defense reaction. The resulting medium-range prediction of well-being for inhabitants of more developed world may not be forbidding, since increasing life expectancy needs not be synonymous with disability, and attaining old age does not require excessive sacrifice, beyond reducing number smoked, or preserving decent respiratory volumes.
Department of Epidemiology, Institute of Social Medicine, Warsaw Medical University, Poland.
J
J
Kopczyński
B
B
Wojtyniak
P
P
Goryński
Z
Z
Lewandowski
D002908:Chronic Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D003625:Data Collection; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D012307:Risk Factors