Mathematical conservation ecology: a one-predator-two-prey system as case study.
A method is presented to analyse the long-term stochastic dynamics of a biological population that is at risk of extinction. From the full ecosystem the method extracts the minimal information to describe the long-term dynamics of that population by a stochastic logistic system. The method is applied to a one-predator-two-prey model. The choice of this example is motivated by a study on the near-extinction of a porcupine population by mountain lions whose presence is facilitated by mule deer taking advantage of a change in land use. The risk of extinction is quantified by the expected time of extinction of the population.
Grasman
J
J
Subdepartment of Mathematics, Wageningen University, Dreijenlaan 4, 6703 HA Wageningen, The Netherlands. grasman@rcl.wau.nl
van den Bosch
F
F
van Herwaarden
O A
OA
D000818:Animals; D002335:Carnivora; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D003670:Deer; D017753:Ecosystem; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011235:Predatory Behavior; D012377:Rodentia; D013269:Stochastic Processes