Mathematical conservation ecology: a one-predator-two-prey system as case study.
A method is presented to analyse the long-term stochastic dynamics of a biological population that is at risk of extinction. From the full ecosystem the method extracts the minimal information to describe the long-term dynamics of that population by a stochastic logistic system. The method is applied to a one-predator-two-prey model. The choice of this example is motivated by a study on the near-extinction of a porcupine population by mountain lions whose presence is facilitated by mule deer taking advantage of a change in land use. The risk of extinction is quantified by the expected time of extinction of the population.
Subdepartment of Mathematics, Wageningen University, Dreijenlaan 4, 6703 HA Wageningen, The Netherlands. grasman@rcl.wau.nl
J
J
Grasman
F
F
van den Bosch
O A
OA
van Herwaarden
D000818:Animals; D002335:Carnivora; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D003670:Deer; D017753:Ecosystem; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011235:Predatory Behavior; D012377:Rodentia; D013269:Stochastic Processes