[Prediction of mortality from findings of annual health checkups utility for health care programs].
OBJECTIVE
To clarify relationships between the findings of annual health checkups and mortality in men and women living in Ibaraki prefecture.


METHODS
The subjects were 32,705 men and 63,959 women aged 40 to 79 years who participated in annual health checkups in 1993. They were followed up until November 30, 1998, with a systemic review of resident registration and death certificates. The Cox's proportional hazards model was used to estimate relative risk, after adjustment for age, smoking status, usual alcohol intake, hypertension category, serum total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, blood glucose, serum creatinine, body mass index (BMI) and urinary protein.


RESULTS
During the 5.2-year follow-up, there were 2,937 deaths (including 384 deaths from stroke, 242 from coronary heart disease and 1,305 from cancer). Significant predictors of mortality from all causes were smoking, usual alcohol intake, hypertension, low serum total cholesterol, low BMI, high blood glucose level, proteinuria for men and women, and low HDL cholesterol for men, and high serum creatinine for women. Significant predictors of mortality from all cardiovascular diseases were smoking, hypertension, low BMI, high serum creatinine, proteinuria for men and women, usual alcohol intake and low HDL cholesterol for men, and serum total cholesterol and high blood glucose level for women. Significant predictors of mortality from stroke were hypertension, low BMI, high serum creatinine for men and women, and proteinuria for women. Significant predictors of mortality from coronary heart disease were smoking, high serum total cholesterol, high blood glucose level, proteinuria for men and women, hypertension, low HDL cholesterol for men. Significant predictors of mortality from cancer were smoking, usual alcohol intake, BMI for men and women, low serum total cholesterol, low HDL cholesterol and proteinuria for men, and high blood glucose level for women. Smoking, usual alcohol intake, low HDL cholesterol and proteinuria were significant predictors of mortality from lung cancer for men.


CONCLUSIONS
Smoking, usual alcohol intake, hypertension, BMI, serum level of total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, blood glucose, creatinine, and urinary protein are significantly associated with mortality. We obtained the new finding that serum creatinine level is a significant predictor of mortality from all cardiovascular diseases in Japanese men and women, and that the multivariate relative risk in female moderate alcohol drinkers (46-68 g ethanol intake/day) vs non-drinkers is significantly elevated for death from all causes. The results of our study are useful for planning of health care education and services.
Department of Health and Welfare, Ibaraki Prefectural Office.
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F
Irie
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T
Sairenchi
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H
Iso
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T
Shimamoto
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003153:Community Health Services; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000401:mortality*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008019:Life Style; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening; D008875:Middle Aged; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D020521:Stroke / Q000401:mortality*