Incidence of nursing home placement in a defined community.
OBJECTIVE
To assess cumulative incidence and non-cognitive factors predicting nursing home placement in a defined older population.


METHODS
Six-year follow-up of a population-based cohort living west of Sydney.


METHODS
3654 non-institutionalised residents aged 49 years or older (82.4% of those eligible) participated in baseline examinations during 1992 to 1994.


METHODS
Permanent nursing home admission for long-term institutionalised aged care in New South Wales, confirmed by records of approvals by the regional Aged Care Assessment Team and subsidy payments by government.


RESULTS
After excluding 384 participants who moved from the area or were lost to follow-up, 162 participants (5.0%) had been admitted to nursing homes on a permanent basis by October 1999. Of participants who died since baseline, 20% had been admitted to a nursing home before death. Of those alive, 1.6% were current nursing home residents. Six-year cumulative incidence rates for nursing home placement were 0.7%, 1.1%, 2.4%, 3.9%, 9.0%, 18.3% and 34.9% for people aged 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84 and 85 years or older, respectively. Non-cognitive factors at baseline predicting subsequent nursing home admission included each additional year of age (risk ratio [RR], 1.14), fair or poor compared with excellent self-rated health (RR, 2.9, 3.6), walking difficulty (RR, 3.6) and current smoking (RR, 1.9). People owning their homes had a decreased likelihood of nursing home placement (RR, 0.6).


CONCLUSIONS
Incidence rates of institutional aged care doubled for each five-year interval from the age of 60 years. A range of non-cognitive factors predict nursing home placement.
Wang
J J
JJ
Department of Ophthalmology, Save Sight Institute, University of Sydney, Westmead, NSW, Australia.
Mitchell
P
P
Smith
W
W
Cumming
R G
RG
Leeder
S R
SR
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015984:Causality; D005260:Female; D006304:Health Status; D006707:Homes for the Aged / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009517:New South Wales; D009735:Nursing Homes / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D010343:Patient Admission / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012306:Risk