[Projections in the incidence of dementia in Austria for the years 1951 to 2050].
Because of the increasing life expectancy it is generally assumed that the number of demented individuals will steeply rise in the next decades. Dementia is a main reason for requiring extensive nursing care. Therefore, estimations of the future number of demented subjects in Austria are necessary for planning appropriate services. Since the age structure of the Austrian population has already changed during the last decades, the development of the number of demented individuals during the last five decades is compared with the estimations for the next five decades. These estimations are based on the population projections for Austria and on all available international meta-analyses of prevalence and incidence surveys. Estimations of the number of people suffering from dementia and of those developing dementia within one year are presented for the period between 1951 and 2050. In 1951, the number of dementia sufferers was 35,500; by 2050 this number will increase to 233,800. At present, 90,500 elderly people with dementia live in Austria. Thus, in the next decades, the number of people suffering from dementia will rise more steeply than the in the past. If the projected life expectancy leads to a prolonged duration of illness the number of dementia sufferers will be markedly higher. On the other hand, the working force will decrease in the next decades. Therefore, while in 1951 there were 120 employable persons per demented person, in 2050 there will be only 17 employable persons per demented person. Extensive planning of the future care of demented people is an urgent necessity.
Wancata
J
J
Universitätsklinik für Psychiatrie, Wien, Osterreich. johannes.wancata@akh-wien.ac.at
Kaup
B
B
Krautgartner
M
M
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging / Q000523:psychology*; D001317:Austria / Q000453:epidemiology; D003704:Dementia / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology*; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008017:Life Expectancy; D015201:Meta-Analysis as Topic; D008875:Middle Aged; D017059:Models, Econometric; D011157:Population Dynamics; D015995:Prevalence