Bayesian inference for prevalence in longitudinal two-phase studies.
We consider Bayesian inference and model selection for prevalence estimation using a longitudinal two-phase design in which subjects initially receive a low-cost screening test followed by an expensive diagnostic test conducted on several occasions. The change in the subject's diagnostic probability over time is described using four mixed-effects probit models in which the subject-specific effects are captured by latent variables. The computations are performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. These models are then compared using the deviance information criterion. The methodology is illustrated with an analysis of alcohol and drug use in adolescents using data from the Great Smoky Mountains Study.
Erkanli
A
A
Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27701, USA. al@psych.mc.duke.edu
Soyer
R
R
Costello
E J
EJ
D000293:Adolescent; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001699:Biometry; D002648:Child; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008390:Markov Chains; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D009657:North Carolina / Q000453:epidemiology; D011336:Probability; D012424:Rural Population; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology