Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis. An example using the GUSTO trial.
A desirable element of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) modeling is a systematic way to relate uncertainty about input parameters to uncertainty in the computational results of the CEA model. Use of Bayesian statistical estimation and Monte Carlo simulation provides a natural way to compute a posterior probability distribution for each CEA result. We demonstrate this approach by reanalyzing a previously published CEA evaluating the incremental cost-effectiveness of tissue plasminogen activator compared to streptokinase for thrombolysis in acute myocardial infarction patients using data from the GUSTO trial and other auxiliary data sources. We illustrate Bayesian estimation for proportions, mean costs, and mean quality-of-life weights. The computations are performed using the Bayesian analysis software WinBUGS, distributed by the MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, England.
Fryback
D G
DG
University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA.
Chinnis
J O
JO
Ulvila
J W
JW
D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis / Q000379:methods*; D003657:Decision Making; D005343:Fibrinolytic Agents / Q000191:economics* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D006801:Humans; D008390:Markov Chains; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000191:economics*; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D013300:Streptokinase / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use; D020521:Stroke / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000191:economics*; D015912:Thrombolytic Therapy / Q000191:economics* / Q000379:methods; D010959:Tissue Plasminogen Activator / Q000191:economics* / Q000627:therapeutic use
D005343:Fibrinolytic Agents; D013300:Streptokinase; D010959:Tissue Plasminogen Activator