title: Data requirements in a model of the natural history of Alzheimer's disease.
abstract: The "natural history" of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is discussed in terms of the data required in a general, discrete-time, non-homogeneous Markov model. The proposed model differs from similar models reported in the literature because mortality is disaggregated into AD-specific mortality and competing mortality due to other causes. Data are reviewed from the literature for AD incidence, and rates of disease progression and mortality. We conduct a preliminary sensitivity analysis using the reviewed data as base-case. The model shows that survival is sensitive to the modelling assumptions concerning mortality. This observation could have important consequences for studies that assess the cost of care following therapeutic interventions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Cavendish School of Computer Science, University of Westminster, London, UK. chausst@wmin.ac.uk
authors.forename: T J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Chaussalet
authors.forename: W A
authors.initials: WA
authors.lastname: Thompson
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology*; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D018450:Disease Progression; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008390:Markov Chains; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000191:economics; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity