title: The use of mixed logit models to reflect heterogeneity in capture-recapture studies.
abstract: We examine issues in estimating population size N with capture-recapture models when there is variable catchability among subjects. We focus on a logistic-normal mixed model, for which the logit of the probability of capture is an additive function of a random subject and a fixed sampling occasion parameter. When the probability of capture is small or the degree of heterogeneity is large, the log-likelihood surface is relatively flat and it is difficult to obtain much information about N. We also discuss a latent class model and a log-linear model that account for heterogeneity and show that the log-linear model has greater scope. Models assuming homogeneity provide much narrower intervals for N but are usually highly overly optimistic, the actual coverage probability being much lower than the nominal level.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA. bcoull@hsph.harvard.edu
authors.forename: B A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Coull
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Agresti
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001699:Biometry; D007793:Lagomorpha; D016014:Linear Models; D016015:Logistic Models; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011156:Population Density