title: Exact tests of goodness of fit of log-linear models for rates.
abstract: We propose Metropolis-Hastings sampling methods for estimating the exact conditional p-value for tests of goodness of fit of log-linear models for mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios. We focus on two-way tables, where the required conditional distribution is a multivariate noncentral hypergeometric distribution with known noncentrality parameter. Two examples are presented: a 2 x 3 table, where the exact results, obtained by enumeration, are available for comparison, and a 9 x 7 table, where Monte Carlo methods provide the only feasible approach for exact inference.
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, UK. jwm@alcd.soton.ac.uk
authors.forename: J W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: McDonald
authors.forename: P W
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: J J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Forster
mesh_terms: D001699:Biometry; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008390:Markov Chains; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D009026:Mortality; D015999:Multivariate Analysis