Incidence and prevalence of all cancerous diseases in Italy: trends and implications.
The burden of cancer in ageing populations is causing great concern, particularly in Italy with Europe's fastest growing elderly population. Studying all cancers combined in one group, although of limited medical value, is of great interest from the viewpoints of public health, epidemiology and the economy. Using mortality data and an estimate of cancer patients' survival we have estimated and projected incidence and prevalence in Italy of all cancers combined in one group. Five major phenomena are highlighted in the paper: (1) the decrease in the age-adjusted cancer mortality rates among females and the stable mortality rates among males since 1990; (2) the changing pattern of cancer incidence since 1990, it has started to decrease for females and is stabilising for males; (3) the decrease in cancer incidence among males and females born after 1940; (4) the increase in the proportion of cancer patients that are cured with calendar years of diagnosis; (5) the increase in the total and the healthy life expectancy (i.e. cancer-free) among the Italian population since 1970. The declining and flat trends in age-adjusted cancer incidence and mortality rates since 1990 is the combined effect of survival improvements and cancer risk reduction for younger cohort groups, after 1940. These favourable trends contribute to the increase in healthy life expectation, thus supporting the idea that we live longer and healthier.
Verdecchia
A
A
Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Viale Regina Elena, 299, 00161, Rome, Italy. verdeck@iss.it
Mariotto
A
A
Capocaccia
R
R
Gatta
G
G
Micheli
A
A
Sant
M
M
Berrino
F
F
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D015995:Prevalence; D016019:Survival Analysis; D015996:Survival Rate; D013997:Time Factors