title: Reduced disability at five years with early treatment of inflammatory polyarthritis: results from a large observational cohort, using propensity models to adjust for disease severity.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the effect of treatment with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and/or steroids on 5-year disability outcome in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis.
  
  
  METHODS
  Three hundred eighty-four patients registered by the Norfolk Arthritis Register (a primary care-based observational cohort) were followed up for 5 years. Treatment details and Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) scores were recorded annually. Logistic regression was used to model differences in baseline factors associated with the start of DMARDs and/or steroids within 12 months of baseline. Based on this model, each subject was given a probability of starting treatment ("propensity score"). A second model compared the odds of disability (HAQ score > or =1.00) in treated and untreated patients, adjusting for differences in disease severity using the propensity score.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Unadjusted analysis suggested that patients who received treatment had an increased odds of a worse outcome compared with those who did not receive treatment. When adjusted for differences in disease severity, using the propensity score, early treatment (within 6 months of symptom onset) was associated with a similar odds of disability at 5 years compared with those not treated (odds ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.34, 1.44). In contrast, starting treatment later (> or =6 months) was associated with a 2-fold increased odds of having a HAQ score > or =1.00 at 5 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The propensity score was a useful method of adjusting for "confounding by indication" in observational studies. Furthermore, this study showed that early treatment with DMARDs/steroids (within 6 months of symptom onset) reduced the odds of disability 5 years later to a level comparable with that of patients judged clinically as not requiring treatment.
authors.affiliation: University of Manchester, UK.
authors.forename: N J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Wiles
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lunt
authors.forename: E M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Barrett
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bukhari
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Silman
authors.forename: D P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Symmons
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Dunn
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D018501:Antirheumatic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D001168:Arthritis / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000276:immunology / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010352:Patient Dropouts; D010661:Phenylketonurias; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012042:Registries; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D018501:Antirheumatic Agents