title: The distribution of early acquired immune deficiency syndrome cases and conditions for the establishment of new epidemics.
abstract: This article presents discussion on two issues: the distribution of early cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), and the epidemiological conditions for the establishment of new diseases. Evidence from four presentations on early AIDS cases is discussed, together with issues of interpreting association and inferring causation. In the second section, the results of a stochastic epidemiological model using the 'real' geography of villages in northern Zaire is presented. This is used to investigate the conditions under which newly introduced infections with different characteristics are able to establish in human populations. It highlights additional spatial, temporal and behavioural conditions necessary for the persistence of introduced diseases, in addition to the condition that the basic reproductive rate R(0) > 1.
authors.affiliation: Sidney Sussex College, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3HU, UK. dl10004@cam.ac.uk
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Low-Beer
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D000349:Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic; D006801:Humans; D002679:Pan troglodytes / Q000821:virology; D011055:Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral; D015995:Prevalence; D012424:Rural Population; D013269:Stochastic Processes
chemical_list: D011055:Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral