High-level reasoning and base-rate use: do we need cue-competition to explain the inverse base-rate effect?
Previous accounts of the inverse base-rate effect (D. L. Medin & S. M. Edelson, 1988) have revolved around the concept of cue-competition. In this article, the authors propose that high-level reasoning in the form of an eliminative inference mechanism may contribute to the effect. A quantitative implementation of this idea demonstrates that it has the power by itself to produce the pattern of base-rate effects in the Medin and Edelson (1988) design. Four predictions are derived that contradict the predictions by attention to distinctive input (ADIT; J. K. Kruschke, 1996), up to date the most successful account of the inverse base-rate effect. Results from 3 experiments disconfirm the predictions by ADIT and demonstrate the importance of high-level reasoning in designs of the Medin and Edelson kind. Implications for the interpretation of the inverse base-rate effect and the attention-shifting mechanisms presumed by ADIT are discussed.
Juslin
P
P
Department of Psychology, Umeå University, Sweden. peter.juslin@psy.umu.se
Wennerholm
P
P
Winman
A
A
D000328:Adult; D001288:Attention; D003463:Cues; D003657:Decision Making; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D011214:Practice, Psychological; D011340:Problem Solving