Dose-response implications of the University of Alabama study of lymphohematopoietic cancer among workers exposed to 1,3-butadiene and styrene in the synthetic rubber industry.
New quantitative cancer risk estimates for exposure to 1,3-butadiene are presented. These estimates are based on the most recent human epidemiologic data developed by Drs Delzell and Macaluso and their colleagues at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. The implications of Poisson regression analyses of the relative rate for leukemia are explored using their updated dose estimates and lymphohematopoietic cancer data. The Poisson regression model in these analyses has the same form as in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s draft risk assessment of 1,3-butadiene [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Health Risk Assessment of 1,3-Butadiene - External Review Draft, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, 63 Fed. Reg. 7167 (February 12, 1998) Publication NCEA-W-0267, Washington, 1998]. Consistent with the proposed cancer risk assessment guidelines of the EPA and the EPA's draft risk assessment, the exploration includes the maximum likelihood estimate of the 'effective concentration' (EC(01)) corresponding to an extra risk of leukemia of 0.01 (1%) from a lifetime continuous exposure to 1,3-butadiene based on a linear dose-response model and the cumulative 1,3-butadiene dose metric (ppm-years). The incorporation of the most recent exposure estimates results in a 2.5-fold decrease in the estimates of leukemia risks computed by EPA. In addition, three changes proposed by the American Chemistry Council (formerly the Chemical Manufacturers Association) to the EPA's Science Advisory Board (SAB) for EPA's draft risk assessment of 1,3-butadiene are incorporated into the calculation. This results in approximately an additional fivefold decrease in the risk estimates of leukemia. The leukemia cancer risk estimates in the EPA's draft risk assessment of 1,3-butadiene decrease by approximately a factor of 13-fold when the updated epidemiologic data and the alternative numbers proposed by industry to the SAB are both incorporated. Specifically, the maximum likelihood estimate of the EC(01) increases from EPA's 1.2 ppm to 2.8 ppm on the basis of the updated epidemiologic data and increases further to 15.1 ppm when the CMA's proposed changes are also incorporated.
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Sielken & Associates Consulting Inc., Suite 230, 3833 Texas Avenue, Bryan, TX 77802, USA. sielkeninc@aol.com
Valdez-Flores
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D000407:Alabama; D002070:Butadienes / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000633:toxicity*; D002617:Chemical Industry; D019992:Databases as Topic; D004305:Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007938:Leukemia / Q000139:chemically induced / Q000401:mortality; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008223:Lymphoma / Q000139:chemically induced / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D009784:Occupational Diseases / Q000139:chemically induced / Q000401:mortality; D016273:Occupational Exposure; D012044:Regression Analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012408:Rubber / Q000138:chemical synthesis; D020058:Styrene / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000633:toxicity*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
D002070:Butadienes; D020058:Styrene; D012408:Rubber; C031763:1,3-butadiene