Hip fracture incidence in New Zealand, revisited.
OBJECTIVE
Earlier predictions of the incidence of hip fractures in the older adult population suggested that by 2011 the rate would rise to epidemic proportions. The purpose of this study was to compare the number hip fractures occuring in New Zealand from 1988 to 1999 with the hip fracture rate predicted in 1990 by Rockwood, Horne and Cryer.


METHODS
Data on the number of patients admitted to New Zealand hospitals with a diagnosis of fractured neck of femur were obtained, and compared with weighted regression and baseline predictions of Rockwood et al.


RESULTS
The numbers of hip fractures for females, from 1988 to 1993, were similar to the number predicted, yet have been significantly lower than stated predictions since 1995. For males, hip fracture numbers since 1995 were less than the weighted regressions predicted (NS).


CONCLUSIONS
Numbers of hip fractures since 1995 have been fewer than predicted. Possible reasons for maintaining the rates of hospitalisation due to fractured neck of femur at pre-1995 levels, are discussed.
Fielden
J
J
Department of Surgery, Wellington School of Medicine.
Purdie
G
G
Horne
G
G
Devane
P
P
D000058:Accidental Falls / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D015914:Estrogen Replacement Therapy; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009520:New Zealand / Q000453:epidemiology; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution