title: Development of a risk assessment based technique for design/retrofitting of WWTPs.
abstract: Up to now, within the design/retrofit of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), deterministic models were used to evaluate different scenarios on their merits in terms of effluent compliance. This paper describes an approach in which a Monte Carlo engine is coupled to a deterministic treatment plant model, followed by risk interpretation in the form of concentration-duration-frequency (cdf) curves of norm exceedance. The combination of probabilistic modelling techniques with the currently available deterministic models allows to determine the probability of exceeding the effluent limits of a WWTP. This percentage of exceedance is accompanied by confidence intervals resulting from the inherent uncertainty of influent characteristics and model parameters. The approach is illustrated for a hypothetical case study, consisting of a denitrifying plant model inspired by the benchmark model described by Spanjers et al.
authors.affiliation: BIOMATH Department, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, B-9000 Gent, Belgium.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Rousseau
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Verdonck
authors.forename: O
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Moerman
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Carrette
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Thoeye
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Meirlaen
authors.forename: P A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Vanrolleghem
mesh_terms: D016001:Confidence Intervals; D004867:Equipment Design; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011336:Probability; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014865:Waste Disposal, Fluid / Q000295:instrumentation* / Q000592:standards*