title: [Impact of the exclusion of donors who have stayed in the United Kingdom on the residual risk of HIV transmission by blood transfusion].
abstract: BACKGROUND
  One of the measures aimed at reducing the risk of transmission of the agent responsible for the new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease was to exclude blood donors having stayed in the United Kingdom between 1980 and 1996. The objective of the study was to estimate the impact on the residual risk of HIV transmission of recruiting extra first-time donors to replace donors having stayed in the United Kingdom.
  
  
  METHODS
  The residual risk of HIV transmission due to donations made during the window period was estimated in all donations made in France during the 3-year period 1996-1998 by a linear combination of residual risks in repeat donors and first-time donors. In repeat donors, the estimate is based on the incidence rate of HIV in this population and in first-time donors on the "detuned assay" method. Seven simulations of the impact on the residual risk were made using various percentages of donors which would be excluded (from -5% to -35%).
  
  
  RESULTS
  In all donations made in France during the 1996-1998 period, the residual risk of HIV transmission was estimated at 0.70 per million donations, which represents five to six donations made during the window period. If all the donors who had stayed in the United Kingdom were excluded from the donation (35%) and replaced by first-time donors, the residual risk of HIV transmission would be increased from 0.70 to 0.86 per million donations. This increase of 24% would represent one or two extra cases of post-transfusion HIV infection over a 3-year period.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results of this study show that the exclusion of a large number of blood donors, replaced by first-time donors, would have a low but quantifiable impact on the residual risk of HIV transmission. This increase of risk was one of the factors that led to the decision of not excluding donors having stayed in the United Kingdom between 1980 and 1996.
authors.affiliation: Institut de veille sanitaire (InVS), 12, rue du Val d'Oise, 94415 Saint-Maurice, France. j.pillonel@invs.sante.fr
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pillonel
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Couroucé
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Saura
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Désenclos
mesh_terms: D001782:Blood Donors / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D018579:Patient Selection; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D065227:Transfusion Reaction; D014195:Travel; D006113:United Kingdom