[Incidence of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark and expected number of future cases among men].
BACKGROUND
The aim was to analyse incidence rates and to predict the future number of cases of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark.


METHODS
We analysed the 1912 cases of malignant mesothelioma reported to the Danish Cancer Register, 1943-1993, in order to describe the current incidence rates. The relative risks of synthetic birth cohorts were estimated by a Poisson regression model and used to predict the future number of cases in males.


RESULTS
The incidence rate increased to 1.33 per 100,000 person years in men in 1983-1987, and to 0.51 in women in 1973-1977. According to a Poisson regression model, the risk in birth cohorts in males peaked in the 1940-1944 cohort and decreased to 0.57 in the 1950-1954 cohort. The age-specific incidence rate peaked at 246 per 100,000 person years in the age group of 80-84. The future annual number of mesothelioma cases is expected to peak around 2015 with 93 cases in men born before 1955.


CONCLUSIONS
The fit of the model was not ideal, but with careful interpretation of the results we conclude that a further increase in the number of mesothelioma cases can be expected, and the effect of regulating the environmental exposure to asbestos cannot be expected within the next 10-15 years.
Kjaergaard
J
J
Dokumentationscentret, forebyggelsesafdelingen, Kraeftens Bekaempelse, København. jesperk@cancer.dk
Andersson
M
M
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003718:Denmark / Q000453:epidemiology; D006338:Heart Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008654:Mesothelioma / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008875:Middle Aged; D010496:Pericardium / Q000473:pathology; D010534:Peritoneal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D010997:Pleural Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D011379:Prognosis; D012042:Registries; D012307:Risk Factors