title: A prognostic index for 30-day mortality after stroke.
abstract: The objective of this study was to develop a simplified scoring system to predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. A retrospective cohort study was performed in a tertiary referral hospital in the Hunter Region of Australia. A prognostic index was created by assigning points to the variables in a Cox model. The index included impaired consciousness (5 points), dysphagia (3 points), urinary incontinence (4 points), admission body temperature higher than 36.5 degrees C (2 points), and hyperglycemia without a clinical history of diabetes (2 points). A score of 11 or more defined a high-risk group. The index achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 68%, 98% and 75%, respectively, in the derivation sample and 57%, 97% and 68%, respectively, in the validation sample. The results provide a simple risk stratification instrument for clinical research and practice. Further evaluation of the model in a prospective cohort is warranted
authors.affiliation: Centre for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, David Maddison Clinical Sciences Building, Royal Newcastle Hospital, Newcastle, New South Wales 2300, Australia. wyang@ceeb.newcastle.edu.au
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: L L
authors.initials: LL
authors.lastname: Lim
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Levi
authors.forename: R F
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Heller
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fischer
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D003244:Consciousness Disorders / Q000150:complications; D003680:Deglutition Disorders / Q000150:complications; D048909:Diabetes Complications; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009517:New South Wales; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012042:Registries; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D020521:Stroke / Q000145:classification / Q000401:mortality*; D014549:Urinary Incontinence / Q000150:complications