title: Fall-risk screening test: a prospective study on predictors for falls in community-dwelling elderly.
abstract: This large prospective cohort study was undertaken to construct a fall-risk model for elderly. The emphasis of the study rests on easily measurable predictors for any falls and recurrent falls. The occurrence of falls among 1285 community-dwelling elderly aged 65 years and over was followed during 1 year by means of a "fall calendar." Physical, cognitive, emotional and social functioning preceding the registration of falls were studied as potential predictors of fall-risk. Previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and use of benzodiazepines were the strongest predictors identified in the risk profile model for any falls (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.65), whereas previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and functional limitations proved to be the strongest predictors in the model for recurrent falls (AUC = 0.71). The probability of recurrent falls for subsequent scores of the screening test ranged from 4.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 4.0-5.4%) to 46.8% (95% CI: 43.0-50.6%). Our study provides a fall-risk screening test based on four easily measurable predictors that can be used for fall-risk stratification in community-dwelling elderly.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Research in Extramural Medicine (EMGO Institute), Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Tromp
authors.forename: S M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Pluijm
authors.forename: J H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Smit
authors.forename: D J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Deeg
authors.forename: L M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Bouter
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Lips
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D014151:Anti-Anxiety Agents / Q000009:adverse effects; D001569:Benzodiazepines; D005260:Female; D005853:Geriatrics; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014549:Urinary Incontinence; D014796:Visual Perception
chemical_list: D014151:Anti-Anxiety Agents; D001569:Benzodiazepines