title: Mortality related to cold and air pollution in London after allowance for effects of associated weather patterns.
abstract: We looked for atypical weather patterns that could confound, and explain large inconsistencies in, conventional estimates of mortality due to SO(2), CO, and smoke. Using Greater London data for 1976-1995 in the linear temperature/mortality range 0-15 degrees C we determined weather patterns associated with pollutants (all deseasonalized) by single regressions of daily temperature, wind, rain, humidity, and sunshine at successive days advance and delay. Polluted days were colder (P<0.01 for SO(2), CO, and smoke) and less windy and rainy than usual, and this cold weather was more prolonged than usual with 50% maximum temperature depression 5.9 days (95% interval 4.0-7.7) before high SO(2), compared to 2.0 (1.6-2.3) days before average cold days. We also used multiple regression of mortality at 50+ years of age on all these weather factors and pollutants at 0-, 1-, 2- to 4-, 5- to 13-, and 14- to 24-day delays to allow for the atypical weather patterns. This showed cold weather associated with 2.77 excess deaths per million during 24 days following a 1 degrees C fall for 1 day, but no net excess deaths with SO(2) (mean 28.0 ppb) or CO (1.26 ppm). It suggested (P>0.05) some increase with smoke, perhaps acting as surrogate for PM(10), for which data were too scanty to analyze.
authors.affiliation: Biomedical Sciences, St. Bartholomew's and the Royal London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary and Westfield College, Mile End Road, London, E1 4NS, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: W R
authors.initials: WR
authors.lastname: Keatinge
authors.forename: G C
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: Donaldson
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000032:analysis; D002248:Carbon Monoxide / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D003081:Cold Climate / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D008131:London; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012906:Smoke / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors; D014887:Weather
chemical_list: D012906:Smoke; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide; D002248:Carbon Monoxide