Explaining national road fatalities.
The purpose of this paper is to report on a model that can be used to explain the differences in road fatalities of individual countries. National infrastructure, transportation and socio-economic variables from international databases were considered as possible variables. The model was developed by means of stepwise regression analyses. It was found that the passenger car ownership is a better predictor of fatalities per 100000 passenger cars than vehicle ownership as a predictor of fatalities per 100000 vehicles. Many individual infrastructure and socio-economic variables have a significant effect on the fatality rate. The final model includes passenger car ownership, the Human Development Index (HDI), and the percentage of other vehicles as explanatory variables.
Bester
C J
CJ
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Stellenbosch, Matieland, South Africa. cjb4@eng.sun.ac.za
D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality*; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008962:Models, Theoretical