title: The end of world population growth.
abstract: There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is around an 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.
authors.affiliation: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. lutz@iiasa.ac.at
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Lutz
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Sanderson
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Scherbov
mesh_terms: D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008954:Models, Biological; D011158:Population Growth; D011336:Probability