Hindsight bias demonstrated in the prediction of a sporting event.
The authors examined hindsight bias in the context of a sporting event (Super Bowl XXXIII) with individuals who had previous knowledge of the hindsight bias-42 students who were currently enrolled in psychology classes that had previously covered hindsight bias. To control for extraneous variables, the authors analyzed how often the participants watched football, their gender, and whom they predicted to win; they found no differences between how often the participants watched football and whom they predicted to win. The hindsight bias existed for the prediction of the outcome for the Super Bowl, and the participants with previous knowledge were not immune to its effect. Results are discussed in relation to attribution theory, the reconstructionist view, and response bias view.
Bonds-Raacke
J M
JM
Department of Behavioral Sciences, Christian Brothers University, Memphis, TN 38104, USA.
Fryer
L S
LS
Nicks
S D
SD
Durr
R T
RT
D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D007721:Knowledge of Results, Psychological; D008297:Male; D011287:Prejudice; D013177:Sports