title: Interpretation of nonfatal events after cardiac surgery: actual versus actuarial reporting.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To describe the cumulative incidence (actual) method of analysis and to contrast it with the Kaplan-Meier method.
  
  
  METHODS
  We use data on porcine valve replacement to illustrate these two statistical techniques.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The "actual" analysis estimates the percentage of events expected to occur. The percentage given by the Kaplan-Meier method is much larger.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Actual (cumulative incidence) analysis is preferred for estimating the probability of occurrence of a nonfatal time-related event.
authors.affiliation: Providence Health System, Portland, OR, USA. ggrunkemeier@providence.org
authors.forename: G L
authors.initials: GL
authors.lastname: Grunkemeier
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wu
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000818:Animals; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D019918:Heart Valve Prosthesis Implantation / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000401:mortality*; D011475:Prosthesis Failure; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013552:Swine; D013923:Thromboembolism / Q000401:mortality*