Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis of HIV prevention. Comparing a Bayesian approach with traditional deterministic sensitivity analysis.
In cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is used to measure economic efficiency of a new intervention, relative to an existing one. However, costs and effects are seldom known with certainty. Uncertainty arises from two main sources: uncertainty regarding correct values of intervention-related parameters and uncertainty associated with sampling variation. Recently, attention has focused on Bayesian techniques for quantifying uncertainty. We computed the Bayesian-based 95% credible interval estimates of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of several related HIV prevention interventions and compared these results with univariate sensitivity analyses. The conclusions were comparable, even though the probabilistic technique provided additional information.
Johnson-Masotti
A P
AP
Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Medicine, Medical College of Wisconsin, 2071 North Summit Avenue, Milwaukee, WI 53202, USA. ajohnson@mcw.edu
Laud
P W
PW
Hoffmann
R G
RG
Hayat
M J
MJ
Pinkerton
S D
SD
D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011336:Probability; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D012725:Sexual Behavior