Predicting presidential performance in the United States: equation replication on recent survey results.
For more than 2 decades, researchers have tried to identify the variables that predict the overall performance of U.S. presidents. In 1986, there emerged a 6-variable prediction equation (D. K. Simonton, 1986c, 1987b) that has been replicated repeatedly. The predictors are years in office, war years, scandal, assassination, heroism in war, and intellectual brilliance. The author again replicated the equation on recent rankings of all presidents from George Washington through William Jefferson Clinton according to a survey of 719 experts (W. R. Ridings, Jr., & S. B. McIver, 1997). The original 6-variable equation successfully predicted both the overall rankings as well as the 5 core components of the rankings (leadership qualities, accomplishment, political skill, appointments, character and integrity). The predictive value of the equation was illustrated for the presidencies of Ronald W. Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Clinton.
Simonton
D K
DK
Department of Psychology, University of California, Davis 95616-8686, USA. dksimonton@ucdavis.edu
D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007857:Leadership; D011057:Politics; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014481:United States