title: IgA nephropathy: multivariate statistical analysis aimed at predicting outcome.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Several risk factors of IgA nephropathy (IgAN) have been identified, but their importance in predicting outcome is still controversial.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted a retrospective study on 119 patients (pts) with IgAN. All had a follow-up of over five years (mean 134+/-56 months). For each patient we recorded age, 24h proteinuria, hematuria, renal function (RF), arterial hypertension (AH) and histological features. Multivariate analysis was done for predictive purposes (segmentation, using Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection-CHAID).
  
  
  RESULTS
  AH at the time of renal biopsy was the principal and independent predicting factor: 30/50 (60%) hypertensive pts had serum creatinine > or =1.5 mg/dL at the end of follow-up compared to 9/69 (13%) pts with normal blood pressure. Age was a further predictive parameter: 21/28 (75%) pts with AH and age over 39 years had reduced RF at the last examination. In this subgroup, 18/19 (95%) with evidence of tubulo-interstitial lesions showed a decline of RF.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  AH and age alone are significant prognostic factors; tubulo-interstitial lesions are an additional pointer to poor outcome in these pts. The algorithm obtained with segmentation analysis may be a guideline for prognosis in single patients with IgA nephropathy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Sciences, Chair of Nephrology, La Sapienza University, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Fofi
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Pecci
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Galliani
authors.forename: M C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Comunian
authors.forename: A O
authors.initials: AO
authors.lastname: Muda
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pierucci
authors.forename: G A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Cinotti
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D005922:Glomerulonephritis, IGA / Q000628:therapy*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D016896:Treatment Outcome