title: Prospective evaluation of Ki-67 labeling in predicting the recurrence and progression of superficial bladder transitional cell carcinoma.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We studied a series of superficial transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder to assess whether the Ki-67 labeling index predicts recurrence and progression in a cohort of patients treated by transurethral resection alone or receiving adjuvant intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guerin therapy (BCG).
  
  
  METHODS
  From 1989 to 1990, we prospectively studied 70 consecutive cases of superficial transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder using Ki-67 immunostaining. The tumors were 43 pTa and 27 pTl. Thirteen were treated with transurethral resection only and 57 received adjuvant intravesical BCG. The median follow-up times was 64 months. The threshold index values of Ki-67 for recurrence and progression were determined using ROC curves. The relative predictive values of the Ki-67 labeling index and tumor characteristics for recurrence and progression were evaluated using Cox's proportional hazards model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A cutoff value of 13% was determined. The recurrence free survival rate at 5 years was 68% for cases with a Ki-67 labeling index of 13 or higher and 71% for those with an index of less than 13 (NS). The progression-free survival rate at 5 years was 43% in cases with an index of 13 or higher and 89% in those with an index of less than 13 (p<0.0001). Using multivariate analysis the Ki-67 labeling index is an independent risk factor for tumor progression with a relative risk of 4.61 (p<0.05).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  When BCG is used for high and intermediate risk superficial bladder cancers, the Ki-67 labeling index is an independent predictive factor of progression but not of recurrence.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, University School of Medicine and Bicêtre Hospital, Bicêtre, France.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Blanchet
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Droupy
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Eschwege
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Viellefond
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Paradis
authors.forename: M F
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Pichon
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Jardin
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Benoit
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002295:Carcinoma, Transitional Cell / Q000737:chemistry* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000473:pathology; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D019394:Ki-67 Antigen / Q000032:analysis*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000737:chemistry* / Q000453:epidemiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate; D001749:Urinary Bladder Neoplasms / Q000737:chemistry* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000473:pathology
chemical_list: D019394:Ki-67 Antigen