Lies, damned lies, and DNA statistics: DNA match testing Bayes' Theorem, and the criminal courts.
This study explains the correct method for the interpretation of DNA matches by using Bayesian Probability, and its various traps: the DNA fallacies. The current approach of the Court of Appeal to the use and presentation of DNA evidence is outlined. A new Bayesian Fallacy is explored. Specific focus is on Norman Fenton and Martin Neil's recent research (Fenton and Neil, 2000) which suggests a new dimension in the presentation of DNA evidence in court.
Jowett
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D001499:Bayes Theorem; D016172:DNA Fingerprinting / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005104:Expert Testimony; D005554:Forensic Medicine; D006801:Humans; D007603:Jurisprudence; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D006113:United Kingdom