title: [Ecologo-economical model of the region development based on the expert approach (example of Bieszczad montain region, Poland)].
abstract: A computer simulation has been developed for the dynamics of forest communities and abundance of wild animals in the Bieszczad mountain region (Carpathians, Southern Poland) at the background of changing quality of water resulting from the development of tourism and agriculture. The simulation operates on scaled variables in the 0-1 range. The functional relationships in the simulation were determined by the Delphi evaluation. The simulation was used to consider scenarios of various environmental influences of the region-climatic factors (warming and changed rainfall) as well as anthropogenic disturbances (development of tourism, agriculture, and commercial hunting). The simulation can be adapted for other regions.
authors.affiliation: International Ecological Center of Polish Academy of Sciences, Dziekanow Lesny, M. Konopnitskoi 1, Lomianki, 05-092 Poland.
authors.forename: V V
authors.initials: VV
authors.lastname: Menshutkin
authors.forename: R Z
authors.initials: RZ
authors.lastname: Klekovski
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D003697:Delphi Technique; D004463:Ecology; D011044:Poland; D012939:Social Planning
vernacular_title: Ekologo-ékonomicheskaia model' razvitiia regiona, osnovannaia na ékspertnykh otsenkakh (na primere gornogo raĭona Beshchad, Pol'sha).