title: Is the impact of environmental noise visible in the dynamics of age-structured populations?
abstract: Climate change has ignited lively research into its impact on various population-level processes. The research agenda in ecology says that some of the fluctuations in population size are accountable for by the external noise (e.g. weather) modulating the dynamics of populations. We obeyed the agenda by assuming population growth after a resource-limited Leslie matrix model in an age-structured population. The renewal process was disturbed by superimposing noise on the development of numbers in one or several age groups. We constructed models for iteroparous and semelparous breeders so that, for both categories, the population growth rate was matching. We analysed how the modulated population dynamics correlates with the noise signal with different time-lags. No significant correlations were observed for semelparous breeders, whereas for iteroparous breeders high correlations were frequently observed with time-lags of 71 year or longer. However, the latter occurs under red-coloured noise and for low growth rates when the disturbance is on the youngest age group only. It is laborious to find any clear signs of the (red) noise- and age group-specific fluctuations if the disturbance influences older age groups only. These results cast doubts on the possibility of detecting the signature of external disturbance after it has modulated temporal fluctuations in age-structured populations.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, PO Box 35, FIN-40351 Jyväskylä, Finland. vkaitala@cc.jyu.fi
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Kaitala
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Ranta
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000818:Animals; D004777:Environment; D008432:Mathematical Computing; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics