Risk and value analysis of SETI.
This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI.  In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking.  Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.
Billingham
J
J
NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California 94035, USA.
D001256:Astronomy / Q000639:trends; D003142:Communication; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D018559:Exobiology / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D005118:Extraterrestrial Environment; D005544:Forecasting; D018535:Mars; D008872:Microwaves; D015397:Program Evaluation / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D011846:Radio Waves; D013026:Space Flight; D018581:Technology Transfer; D014481:United States; D018557:United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration