title: Persistence patterns of scrapie in a sheep flock.
abstract: The epidemiology and transmission dynamics of sheep scrapie is as yet poorly understood. Here we present a theoretical analysis of the transmission dynamics within a sheep flock, concentrating on how persistence properties depend on transmission scenario and flock size. Patterns of disease persistence and extinction are studied analytically using branching-process approximations and numerically using stochastic model simulations. For a given basic reproduction number, disease extinction is most likely when late-stage infected animals are responsible for most of the transmission. This effect can be understood in terms of aggregation in the distribution of the number of secondary infections arising from a single primary infection. The presence of an environmental reservoir reduces the probability of extinction.
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: T J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Hagenaars
authors.forename: N M
authors.initials: NM
authors.lastname: Ferguson
authors.forename: C A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Donnelly
authors.forename: R M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Anderson
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012608:Scrapie / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D012756:Sheep; D013997:Time Factors