Assessing the resource implications of extending routine invitation to breast screening to women aged 65-67 years.
UK breast screening policy currently restricts routine 3-yearly invitation to screening to 50-64 year olds. However, it is likely that routine invitation will be extended to 65-67 year olds in 2001. This paper first predicts the additional demand for breast screening as a result of this new policy by modelling the response to the 1998 invitation of women eligible for screening in 2001. The independent variables include (i) the woman's characteristics: her screening history; the deprivation score of the area she lives in; and (ii) the characteristics of the screening: whether the screening took place in a mobile van or at a static site; and time of the year. The modelling of attendance is quite successful in that most hypothesised variables have the expected sign. It is estimated that an additional 10829 women will be screened per annum. The additional invitation, screening and assessment costs are expected to be approximately pound350000 in 2001.
van der Pol
M
M
Health Economics Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, Foresterhill, AB25 2ZD, Scotland, Aberdeen, UK. m.m.vanderpol@abdn.ac.uk
Cairns
J
J
D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000191:economics; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D005260:Female; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006295:Health Resources / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008327:Mammography / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000191:economics / Q000458:organization & administration*; D010342:Patient Acceptance of Health Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012606:Scotland; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors