Validation of a Swiss method of caries prediction in Dutch children.
OBJECTIVE
This study aimed to validate a caries prediction method, the Dentoprog-Method, which was developed on Swiss children.


METHODS
A Dutch child population was used for validation. The diagnosis of caries, age of the children and the caries experience were slightly different from the population from which the Dentoprog-Method was developed. With the Dentoprog-Method, Dutch children were ranked in increasing order of high caries risk probability. The measure of prediction was expressed in sensitivity and specificity, which were calculated at 10% risk probability intervals for each class of "high" caries increment and for different forecast periods. ROC curves presenting sensitivity as a function of (100-specificity) were employed to summarize the obtained information. The area under the ROC curve was used as a measure of predictive accuracy.


RESULTS
The area under the ROC curves for various caries increment classes of 7.5-year-old and 9.5-year-old Dutch children was in the range of the area under the ROC curves of Swiss children.


CONCLUSIONS
This analysis indicated that the Dentoprog-Method when applied on a sample of Dutch children was robust enough to overcome small differences in caries diagnosis, age and caries experience.
Helderman
W H
WH
WHO Collaborating Centre for Oral Health Care Planning and Future Scenarios, University of Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. w.vanpalenstein@dent.kun.nl
Mulder
J
J
van'T Hof
M A
MA
Truin
G J
GJ
D000465:Algorithms; D002648:Child; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015995:Prevalence; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013557:Switzerland / Q000453:epidemiology