Exponential evolution: implications for intelligent extraterrestrial life.
Some measures of biologic complexity, including maximal levels of brain development, are exponential functions of time through intervals of 10(6) to 10(9) yrs. Biological interactions apparently stimulate evolution but physical conditions determine the time required to achieve a given level of complexity. Trends in brain evolution suggest that other organisms could attain human levels within approximately 10(7) yrs. The number (N) and longevity (L) terms in appropriate modifications of the Drake Equation, together with trends in the evolution of biological complexity on Earth, could provide rough estimates of the prevalence of life forms at specified levels of complexity within the Galaxy. If life occurs throughout the cosmos, exponential evolutionary processes imply that higher intelligence will soon (10(9) yrs) become more prevalent than it now is. Changes in the physical universe become less rapid as time increases from the Big Bang. Changes in biological complexity may be most rapid at such later times. This lends a unique and symmetrical importance to early and late universal times.
Russell
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Paleobiology Division, National Museum of Natural Sciences, Ottawa, Canada.
D000818:Animals; D005075:Biological Evolution; D001921:Brain / Q000033:anatomy & histology* / Q000502:physiology; D002980:Climate; D019419:Evolution, Planetary; D018559:Exobiology; D005118:Extraterrestrial Environment; D006801:Humans; D007360:Intelligence; D008433:Mathematics; D009929:Organ Size