title: A kill curve for Phanerozoic marine species.
abstract: A kill curve for Phanerozoic species is developed from an analysis of the stratigraphic ranges of 17,621 genera, as compiled by Sepkoski.  The kill curve shows that a typical species' risk of extinction varies greatly, with most time intervals being characterized by very low risk.  The mean extinction rate of 0.25/m.y. is thus a mixture of long periods of negligible extinction and occasional pulses of much higher rate.  Because the kill curve is merely a description of the fossil record, it does not speak directly to the causes of extinction.  The kill curve may be useful, however, to li¿mit choices of extinction mechanisms.
authors.affiliation: Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA.
authors.forename: D M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Raup
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D005075:Biological Evolution; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005580:Fossils; D055593:Geological Phenomena; D005844:Geology; D008386:Marine Biology; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D010163:Paleontology / Q000379:methods*; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors