title: Problems in the forecasting of solar particle events for manned missions.
abstract: Manned spacecraft will require a much improved ability to forecast solar particle events. The lead time required will depend on the use to which the forecast is put. Here we discuss problems of forecasting with the lead times of hours to weeks. Such forecasts are needed for scheduling and carrying out activities. Our present capabilities with these lead times is extremely limited. To improve our capability we must develop an ability to predict fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). It is not sufficient to observe that a CME has already taken place since by that time it is already too late to make predictions with these lead times. Both to learn how to predict CMEs and to carry out forecasts on time scales of several days to weeks, observations of the other side of the Sun are required. We describe a low-cost space mission of this type that would further the development of an hours-to-weeks forecast capability.
authors.affiliation: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena 91109, USA. jfeynman@jplsp.jpl.nasa.gov
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Feynman
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ruzmaikin
mesh_terms: D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D008280:Magnetics; D011522:Protons; D019445:Solar Activity; D013026:Space Flight; D018531:Spacecraft; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D011522:Protons