title: The monitoring and prediction of solar particle events--an experience report.
abstract: The routine monitoring and prediction of solar proton events that may be a hazard to personnel and materials in space are a routine service of the Space Environment Services Center in Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. The services provided are made available to the space centers in the United States for use in their operations. The real time monitoring consists primarily of Space Environment Monitors on both geosynchronous and polar orbiting weather satellites. The monitoring emphasizes proton fluxes but alpha particles, electrons, and in one case, heavier particles, are included. The predictions are of two types; a general outlook made 1 to 3 days in advance, and specific prediction of event size and probability of occurrence made after a solar flare occurs. The accuracy of the prediction made for solar cycle 21 are assessed.
authors.affiliation: Space Environment Services Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80303, USA.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Heckman
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hirman
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kunches
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Balch
mesh_terms: D018534:Earth, Planet; D005544:Forecasting; D011336:Probability; D011522:Protons; D011834:Radiation Monitoring; D019445:Solar Activity; D018531:Spacecraft
chemical_list: D011522:Protons