title: Assessment of health economics in Alzheimer's disease (AHEAD) based on need for full-time care.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a framework for estimating the long-term health and economic consequences of AD based on patient characteristics at a given point in time.
  
  
  METHODS
  A pharmacoeconomic model (Assessment of Health Economics in Alzheimer's Disease, AHEAD) was developed based on equations that relate the probability of needing full-time care (FTC) over time to patient characteristics summarized in index scores. These equations were developed from published data on interquartile times until FTC is needed and until death, using nonlinear regressions of the resulting index-specific hazards. These equations were then incorporated into a hidden Markov framework that allows for calculation of expected time to FTC and to death, as well as of the economic consequences of disease progression. There are three major states in the model: not requiring FTC ("pre-FTC"), requiring FTC, and death.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Outcomes for five sample patients are derived to illustrate application of the AHEAD model. The impact of altering disease markers in these patients is also considered.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The need for a generally applicable tool to forecast long-term outcomes based on relatively short-term data is becoming increasingly acute with the advent of new therapies for AD. The AHEAD model provides a relatively simple framework for the prediction of time to FTC requirement based on short-term observed data such as those from clinical trials. Although subject to the uncertainties inherent in modeling, the model nevertheless provides a standard estimation technique that may facilitate comparisons between existing and emerging therapies.
authors.affiliation: Caro Research Institute, Concord, MA 01742, USA. jcaro@caroresearch.com
authors.forename: J J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Caro
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Getsios
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Migliaccio-Walle
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Raggio
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ward
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000145:classification / Q000191:economics* / Q000401:mortality; D017281:Cost of Illness; D005260:Female; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000191:economics*; D006801:Humans; D008134:Long-Term Care / Q000191:economics*; D008297:Male; D018803:Models, Economic; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D014481:United States