title: Accuracy of point predictions in survival analysis.
abstract: Survival time prediction is important in many applications, particularly for patients diagnosed with terminal diseases. A measure of prediction error taken from the medical literature is advocated as a practicable method of quantifying reliability of point predictions. Optimum predictions are derived for familiar survival models and the accuracy of these predictions is investigated. We argue that poor predictive capability is inherent to standard survival models with realistic parameter values. A lung cancer example is used to illustrate difficulties in prediction in practice.
authors.affiliation: Medical Statistics Unit, Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, LA4 4YF, U.K. robin.henderson@lancaster.ac.uk
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Henderson
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Stare
mesh_terms: D002289:Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011379:Prognosis; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013727:Terminal Care