title: Prediction of readmission to acute psychiatric units.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Many factors are known to influence readmission to psychiatric wards, and readmission rates have been suggested as proxy outcome indicators of quality.
  
  
  METHODS
  Korner returns were used to ascertain readmission rates for all psychiatric admissions to acute wards in North Staffordshire, 1987-1993. Predictor variables were derived from Korner returns or obtained from the 1991 Census data. Survival analysis techniques were used to examine which variables predicted readmission.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A predictive model was derived using Cox regression, which followed the observed data at greater than chance probability (chi2=48.5, df=4, P < 0.001). A psychotic diagnosis was the most influential predictor of readmission.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Length of stay is not predictive in the Cox regression model, which suggests patients are not being prematurely discharged. The derived models may have value in service planning, audit and resource allocation.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, School of Postgraduate Medicine, Keele University, Stoke on Trent, North Staffs, UK.
authors.forename: R E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Hodgson
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lewis
authors.forename: A P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Boardman
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006778:Hospitals, Psychiatric / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000628:therapy*; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010359:Patient Readmission / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011567:Psychiatric Department, Hospital / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D019984:Quality Indicators, Health Care; D016019:Survival Analysis