title: A three-stage clinical trial design for rare disorders.
abstract: Many clinical trials of uncommon diseases are underpowered because of the difficulty of recruiting adequate numbers of subjects. We propose a clinical trial design with improved statistical power compared to the traditional randomized trial for use in clinical trials of rare diseases. The three-stage clinical trial design consists of an initial randomized placebo-controlled stage, a randomized withdrawal stage for subjects who responded, and a third randomized stage for placebo non-responders who subsequently respond to treatment. Test level and power were assessed by computer-intensive exact calculations. The three-stage clinical trial design was found to be consistently superior to the traditional randomized trial design in all cases examined, with sample sizes typically reduced by 20 per cent to 30 per cent while maintaining comparable power. When a treatment clearly superior to placebo was considered, our design reached a power of 75 per cent with a sample of 21 patients compared with the 52 needed to attain this power when only a randomized controlled trial was used. In situations where patient numbers are limited, a three-stage clinical trial design may be a more powerful design than the traditional randomized trial for detecting clinical benefits.
authors.affiliation: Division of Rheumatology, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada.
authors.forename: V E
authors.initials: VE
authors.lastname: Honkanen
authors.forename: A F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Siegel
authors.forename: J P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Szalai
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Berger
authors.forename: B M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Feldman
authors.forename: J N
authors.initials: JN
authors.lastname: Siegel
mesh_terms: D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D012107:Research Design; D018401:Sample Size