title: Can we predict a high risk group in stage I epithelial ovarian cancer?
abstract: A retrospective review of 373 patients with stage I invasive epithelial ovarian cancer was undertaken over a 5 year period to develop a model to characterize the patient at high risk. Actuarial 5-year survival was 70%. To identify factors with an independent effect on 5-year survival, a logistic regression analysis was performed. Adjuvant chemotherapy, histologic grade and peritoneal washings, were identified as independent variables. A model to determine the predictivity of survival was created using a learning sample (2/3 of the cases) and the model was then used to reclassify a validation sample (1/3 of the cases). Using all the independent variables, outcome was predicted correctly in 78% of cases. However the model failed to improve identification of those at risk of recurrence (specificity of 53%).
authors.affiliation: Academic Department of Obstetrics Gynaecology, Dudley Road Hospital, Birmingham and Cancer Research Campaign Clinical Trials Unit, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, UK.
authors.forename: C.B.
authors.initials: CB
authors.lastname: Finn
authors.forename: J.
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Dunn
authors.forename: E.J.
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Buxton
authors.forename: D.M.
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Luesley
authors.forename: M.
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Shafi