Constraint to adaptive evolution in response to global warming.
We characterized the genetic architecture of three populations of a native North American prairie plant in field conditions that simulate the warmer and more arid climates predicted by global climate models. Despite genetic variance for traits under selection, among-trait genetic correlations that are antagonistic to the direction of selection limit adaptive evolution within these populations. Predicted rates of evolutionary response are much slower than the predicted rate of climate change.
Etterson
J R
JR
University of Minnesota, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Minnesota Center for Community Genetics, 1987 Upper Buford Circle, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA. jre7e@virginia.edu
Shaw
R G
RG
D000222:Adaptation, Physiological; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D005075:Biological Evolution; D002980:Climate; D004190:Disasters; D007887:Fabaceae / Q000235:genetics / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D014644:Genetic Variation; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D015146:Midwestern United States; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D018515:Plant Leaves / Q000254:growth & development; D010946:Plants, Medicinal; D012641:Selection, Genetic