title: Predictability of the UK variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic.
abstract: Back-calculation analysis of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic in the United Kingdom is used to estimate the number of infected individuals and future disease incidence. The model assumes a hazard of infection proportional to the incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in the United Kingdom and accounts for precautionary control measures and very wide ranges of incubation periods. The model indicates that current case data are compatible with numbers of infections ranging from a few hundred to several millions. In the latter case, the model suggests that the mean incubation period must be well beyond the human life-span, resulting in disease epidemics of at most several thousand cases.
authors.affiliation: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK. jerome.huillard@lshtm.ac.uk
authors.forename: J N
authors.initials: JN
authors.lastname: d'Aignaux
authors.forename: S N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Cousens
authors.forename: P G
authors.initials: PG
authors.lastname: Smith
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000367:Age Factors; D017668:Age of Onset; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D007562:Creutzfeldt-Jakob Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000235:genetics / Q000635:transmission; D004032:Diet; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D016643:Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform / Q000453:epidemiology; D014644:Genetic Variation / Q000235:genetics*; D005838:Genotype; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008715:Methionine / Q000235:genetics; D051379:Mice; D008954:Models, Biological; D015995:Prevalence; D011328:Prions / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000235:genetics; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D011328:Prions; D008715:Methionine