Multiple factor scoring system for risk assessment of acute pancreatitis.
BACKGROUND
The initial prognostic classification of a pathologic event has important implications for management, outcome, and resource utilization. A variety of prognostic classification methods have been developed, but none has thus far shown consistent predictive accuracy in individual patients. In an attempt to overcome some of the limitations encountered by earlier workers, we have developed a simplified system for evaluation and prognosis of acute pancreatitis.


METHODS
We studied retrospectively 306 patients with acute pancreatitis. Nonstandard statistical calculations were used to create risk indices for pancreatitis severity for all 13 variables which were included in a standard chart.


RESULTS
The risk assessment rule's correct prediction is 81.32% (sensitivity) and 93.95% (specificity) for severe and mild pancreatitis, respectively. The total accuracy is 90.20%.


CONCLUSIONS
The results of this nonstandard small retrospective study seem promising. It should remain experimental until larger prospective studies confirm the usefulness of the method.
Losanoff
J E
JE
Department of Surgery, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, Missouri 65212, USA.
Asparouhov
O K
OK
Jones
J W
JW
D000208:Acute Disease; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010195:Pancreatitis / Q000209:etiology* / Q000503:physiopathology; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012720:Severity of Illness Index