title: Comparing methods for monitoring serum creatinine to predict late renal allograft failure.
abstract: Few studies have systematically investigated what changes in chronic renal allograft function best predict subsequent graft failure, when these changes occur, and whether they occur soon enough to allow possible intervention. We collected serum creatinine values (mean, 183 +/- 75 values/patient) measured over a maximum follow-up of 22 years in 101 consecutive renal transplant recipients (excluding creatinine levels from periods of acute rejection). We determined the dates of first decline in inverse creatinine (Delta1/Cr; < -20%, -30%, -40%, -50%, and -70%), declines in estimated creatinine clearance (CCr; <55, 45, 35, 25, and 15 mL/min), and declines in measured slope of 1/Cr over time. We used time-dependent covariates in Cox proportional hazards analyses to determine the relative effect of each renal function parameter on outcomes while adjusting for other risk factors. The best predictor of subsequent graft failure was Delta1/Cr. Delta1/Cr less than -40% first occurred at a median of 1.28 years after transplantation in 73 patients, and 67 patients went on to have graft failure a median of 3.28 years after Delta1/Cr less than -40%. The independent relative risk for graft failure attributable to Delta1/Cr less than -40% was 5.91 (95% confidence interval, 3.25 to 10.8; P < 0.0001). A decline in CCr, eg, less than 45 mL/min, also was a strong predictor of subsequent graft failure. Conversely, declines in allograft function estimated from slopes of 1/Cr were poor predictors of graft failure. In analysis limited to patients followed up for 2.5 years or less, Delta1/Cr continued to predict graft failure, suggesting that Delta1/Cr will be a useful predictor in populations with shorter follow-up. If confirmed in other populations, eg, patients treated with calcineurin inhibitors, this simple marker of chronic allograft dysfunction may prove to be a practical tool for defining patients at high risk for late graft failure.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Hennepin County Medical Center, Minneapolis, MN 55415, USA. kasis001@umn.edu
authors.forename: B L
authors.initials: BL
authors.lastname: Kasiske
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Andany
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Hernández
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Silkensen
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Rabb
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: McClean
authors.forename: J P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Roel
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Danielson
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D003404:Creatinine / Q000097:blood*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006084:Graft Rejection / Q000097:blood* / Q000503:physiopathology; D006085:Graft Survival / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D007668:Kidney / Q000503:physiopathology; D016030:Kidney Transplantation; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D013223:Statistics as Topic / Q000379:methods; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D003404:Creatinine