title: The lag structure between particulate air pollution and respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 10 US cities.
abstract: To assess differences in the lag structure pattern between particulate matter < 10 microns/100 microns in diameter (PM10) and cause-specific mortality, we performed a time-series analysis in 10 US cities using generalized additive Poisson regressions in each city; nonparametric smooth functions were used to control for long time trend, weather, and day of the week. The PM10 effect was estimated based on its daily mean, 2-day moving average, and the cumulative 7-day effect by means of an unconstrained distributed lag model. A 10-microgram/m3 increase in the 7-day mean of PM10 was associated with increases in deaths due to pneumonia (2.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5, 3.9), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.7%, 95% CI: 0.1, 3.3), and all cardiovascular diseases (1.0%, 95% CI: 0.6, 1.4). A 10-microgram/m3 increase in the 2-day mean of PM10 was associated with a 0.7% (95% CI: 0.3, 1.1) increase in deaths from myocardial infarction. When the distributed lag was assessed, two different patterns could be observed: respiratory deaths were more affected by air pollution levels on the previous days, whereas cardiovascular deaths were more affected by same-day pollution. These results contribute to the overall efforts so far in understanding how exposure to air pollution promotes adverse health effects.
authors.affiliation: Environmental Epidemiology Program, Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, 665 Huntington Avenue, Bldg I, Room 1414, Boston, MA 02115, USA. abraga@unisa.br
authors.forename: A L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Braga
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Zanobetti
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Schwartz
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000009:adverse effects*; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000139:chemically induced* / Q000401:mortality*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D006801:Humans; D010316:Particle Size; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012140:Respiratory Tract Diseases / Q000139:chemically induced* / Q000401:mortality*; D012307:Risk Factors; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014505:Urban Population; D014887:Weather
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants