Use of a computer model to identify potential hotspots for dengue fever in New Zealand.
OBJECTIVE
To describe the areas of potential dengue fever risk in New Zealand for present climatic conditions and projected scenarios of climate change.


METHODS
A computer model, the HOTSPOTS System, was developed. This allowed the integration of climatic, topographical, entomological, demographic, trade and travel data to generate spatial information describing vector introduction risk, potential vector distribution and dengue fever risk.


RESULTS
Under present climatic conditions, Auckland and Northland, and some coastal areas of other northern parts of the North Island, have a potential risk for dengue outbreaks supported by the vector Aedes albopictus. Greenhouse gas induced climate change could make these areas also receptive to Aedes aegypti--the more efficient tropical dengue vector--and increase the potential distribution of A. albopictus to much of the South Island.


CONCLUSIONS
Given the introduction of a competent vector, there is an appreciable risk of dengue fever occurring in New Zealand under present climatic conditions. Greenhouse gas induced climate change would substantially increase the magnitude and spatial extent of this risk.
de Wet
N
N
International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, Hamilton. ndewet@waikato.ac.nz
Ye
W
W
Hales
S
S
Warrick
R
R
Woodward
A
A
Weinstein
P
P
D002980:Climate; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003715:Dengue / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D019353:Endemic Diseases; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D009520:New Zealand / Q000453:epidemiology; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity