title: The dynamics of heroin use; implications for intervention.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To use a readily available dataset to detect periods of epidemic change and to examine the progression of heroin epidemics in different geographical areas. To consider the implications of epidemic change for strategies to tackle drug misuse.
  
  
  METHODS
  Comparison of trends in new treatment demand, observed incidence, and age specific population rates for treated heroin users in two geographical areas.
  
  
  METHODS
  Heroin users recorded to have sought treatment.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The areas studied seem to show differences with respect to trends in new treatment demand, incidence of heroin use and distribution of age specific population rates; indicating that they may be at different epidemic stages.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These analyses show how areas may differ with respect to epidemic progression of heroin use. It is essential that government strategies, and local responses to these, should be cognisant of these dynamics.
authors.affiliation: University of Manchester Drug Misuse Research Unit, Manchester, UK. tim.millar@man.ac.uk
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Millar
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Craine
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Carnwath
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Donmall
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D006556:Heroin Dependence / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000628:therapy; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence