title: Short-term course of drinking in an untreated sample of at-risk drinkers.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We know little about the short-term course of drinking, particularly the stability or instability of at-risk drinking in untreated drinkers. Because few at-risk drinkers obtain help for their drinking, it is important to understand the short-term fluctuations between at-risk drinking and full-fledged alcohol use disorders, as well as remission of at-risk drinking.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used four waves of data (each 6 months apart) from a probability community sample of 733 at-risk drinkers in six states in the southern United States to determine variation in abstinence, drinking patterns and alcohol use disorders over a 2-year period. For this analysis, we excluded those who reported receiving services for drinking during the 2-year study period (retrospectively at baseline), leaving a sample size of 664 (444 male); 479 (306 male) completed all four interviews.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Although the majority (88%) of the sample was nonabstinent throughout the study, we found significant decreases in average number of drinks per drinking day and recent (past 6 months) alcohol disorders, and an increase in 6-month abstinence. Almost 30% of those with no recent alcohol disorder at baseline (n = 280) later met diagnostic criteria in at least one interview. Of those with a recent alcohol disorder at baseline (n = 199), one third met criteria in at least two subsequent interviews.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  There is some evidence for short-term progression from at-risk drinking to alcohol disorder. However, there is stronger evidence for declining problems and a fluctuation in and out of recovery and relapse, which may reflect an effort to maintain controlled drinking. Understanding this short-term course is important for primary and secondary prevention efforts and for screening of at-risk drinking in primary care and in the workplace.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, Centers for Mental Healthcare Research, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock 72204, USA. boothbrendam@uams.edu
authors.forename: B M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Booth
authors.forename: S M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Fortney
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Fortney
authors.forename: G M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Curran
authors.forename: J E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Kirchner
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology / Q000628:therapy*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013695:Temperance / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D013997:Time Factors