title: The value of salivary bacterial counts as a supplement to past caries experience as caries predictor in children.
abstract: This study aimed to determine whether salivary mutans streptococci and lactobacilli counts could add any value to a combination of caries experience variables that was recently presented for the prediction of caries. Sixty-nine children at the age of 7.5 yr participated in this longitudinal study. Microbiological data were obtained at the ages of 7.5, 9.5 and 11.5 yr and caries data at the ages of 7.5. 9.5. 11.5, 13.5 and 15.5 yr. Spearman's correlation coefficients were computed, and forward multiple regression analyses were carried out using bacterial counts and caries experience parameters as explanatory variables and caries increment as a dependent variable. The explained variance (adjusted R2 value) was the measure used to assess the additional value of bacterial counts to the caries predictive potential of the combined parameters of the past caries experience. Correlation coefficients between bacterial counts and 4-yr caries increment were from 0.22 tip to 0.54. In all cases, the simultaneous streptococcus mutans-lactobacilli counts showed a statistically non-significant additional adjusted R2 value of <0.06. The results do not lend support to the concept that these salivary bacterial counts are useful additional caries predictors for the mixed dentition, when a combination of caries experience parameters is used.
authors.affiliation: WHO Collaborating Centre for Oral Health Care Planning and Future Scenarios, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. w.vanpalenstein@dent.kun.nl
authors.forename: W H
authors.initials: WH
authors.lastname: van Palenstein Helderman
authors.forename: F H
authors.initials: FH
authors.lastname: Mikx
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Van't Hof
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Truin
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Kalsbeek
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D015169:Colony Count, Microbial; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D004245:DMF Index; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000145:classification / Q000382:microbiology; D003750:Dental Fissures / Q000382:microbiology; D003818:Dentition, Mixed; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007778:Lactobacillus / Q000254:growth & development*; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008963:Molar / Q000382:microbiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012463:Saliva / Q000382:microbiology*; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D013295:Streptococcus mutans / Q000254:growth & development*