An assessment of the recidivism rates of substantiated and unsubstantiated maltreatment cases.
OBJECTIVE
This study assembles information about the large number of maltreatment reports that are determined by social services to be unsubstantiated. Specifically, we assess whether the status of a maltreatment case (substantiated vs. unsubstantiated) has implications for recidivism. Recidivism rates for substantiated and unsubstantiated maltreated juveniles were also compared to juvenile offenders.


METHODS
Juvenile court records for 15,812 juveniles were assessed over a 3 year period. The data included 2558 maltreatment cases. Fifty-four percent of these cases were unsubstantiated. Logistic regression analysis was employed to assess the probability of recidivism based on time one referral status.


RESULTS
Youth whose maltreatment allegations were unsubstantiated had significantly lower odds of recidivating than abused youth. Having a case recorded as unsubstantiated lowered a youth's odds of subsequent offending by 55% relative to being abused. The probability of recidivating was highest for juvenile offenders, followed in order by maltreated youth and youth whose reports were unsubstantiated.


CONCLUSIONS
This is one of the first studies to examine the court histories of substantiated and unsubstantiated maltreatment cases. If the subsequent outcomes following maltreatment investigations are used as an indicator of seriousness, our results suggest that assessment caseworkers are successfully sorting out the serious from the less serious cases.
Thompson
K M
KM
Department of Sociology, North Dakota State University, Fargo 58105, USA.
Wonderlich
S A
SA
Crosby
R D
RD
Ammerman
F F
FF
Mitchell
J E
JE
Brownfield
D
D
D002648:Child; D002649:Child Abuse / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002669:Child Welfare / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016015:Logistic Models; D019221:Mandatory Reporting; D009658:North Dakota / Q000453:epidemiology; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012008:Recurrence; D012307:Risk Factors; D012926:Social Control, Formal; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology