title: The UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in Type II diabetes (UKPDS 56).
abstract: A definitive model for predicting absolute risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in male and female people with Type II diabetes is not yet available. This paper provides an equation for estimating the risk of new CHD events in people with Type II diabetes, based on data from 4540 U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study male and female patients. Unlike previously published risk equations, the model is diabetes-specific and incorporates glycaemia, systolic blood pressure and lipid levels as risk factors, in addition to age, sex, ethnic group, smoking status and time since diagnosis of diabetes. All variables included in the final model were statistically significant (P<0.001, except smoking for which P=0.0013) in likelihood ratio testing. This model provides the estimates of CHD risk required by current guidelines for the primary prevention of CHD in Type II diabetes.
authors.affiliation: Diabetes Trials Unit, Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Infirmary, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6HE, UK. richard.stevens@dtu.ox.ac.uk
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Stevens
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Kothari
authors.forename: A I
authors.initials: AI
authors.lastname: Adler
authors.forename: I M
authors.initials: IM
authors.lastname: Stratton
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001794:Blood Pressure; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000208:ethnology / Q000209:etiology*; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000503:physiopathology*; D003925:Diabetic Angiopathies / Q000208:ethnology / Q000209:etiology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000032:analysis; D006801:Humans; D008055:Lipids / Q000097:blood; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects; D015996:Survival Rate
chemical_list: D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin; D008055:Lipids