Modeling the consequences of bioterrorism response.
Military medicine is playing important roles in preparing for the possibility of a covert biological attack on the United States. The objective of this work was to develop a spreadsheet tool that allows planners to compare the consequences of different speeds of response to a covert bioterrorist attack using the metric of preventable deaths. Our model simulates the number of patients to be treated and the number of deaths by day. It allows planners to vary their assumptions, such as the biological agent used, treatment efficacy, and speed of providing initial treatment. Responding to an attack on a city would involve many steps, such as determining the agent used, determining the time and location of the attack and the affected population, obtaining and delivering antibiotics, and providing treatment. Our model is a useful tool for planning the necessary size and timing of bioterrorism response.
Giovachino
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M
Center for Naval Analyses, 4825 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311-1850, USA.
Carey
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N
D023482:Bioterrorism / Q000517:prevention & control; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004189:Disaster Planning / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008887:Military Medicine / Q000379:methods*; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States