title: Using a dynamic hydrology model to predict mosquito abundances in flood and swamp water.
abstract: We modeled surface wetness at high resolution, using a dynamic hydrology model, to predict flood and swamp water mosquito abundances. Historical meteorologic data, as well as topographic, soil, and vegetation data, were used to model surface wetness and identify potential fresh and swamp water breeding habitats in two northern New Jersey watersheds. Surface wetness was positively associated with the subsequent abundance of the dominant floodwater mosquito species, Aedes vexans, and the swamp water species, Anopheles walkeri. The subsequent abundance of Culex pipiens, a species that breeds in polluted, eutrophic waters, was negatively correlated with local modeled surface wetness. These associations permit real-time monitoring and forecasting of these floodwater and nonfloodwater species at high spatial and temporal resolution. These predictions will enable public health agencies to institute control measures before the mosquitoes emerge as adults, when their role as transmitters of disease comes into play.
authors.affiliation: Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Rm 106, Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, USA. jshaman@ldeo.columbia.edu
authors.forename: Jeffrey
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Shaman
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stieglitz
authors.forename: Colin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Stark
authors.forename: Sylvie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Le Blancq
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cane
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000254:growth & development; D000818:Animals; D000852:Anopheles / Q000254:growth & development; D003465:Culex / Q000254:growth & development; D009033:Culicidae / Q000254:growth & development*; D004190:Disasters; D005618:Fresh Water; D005843:Geography; D007300:Insect Control; D016015:Logistic Models; D008954:Models, Biological; D009515:New Jersey; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011891:Rain; D014867:Water / Q000009:adverse effects
chemical_list: D014867:Water