Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum.
We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th-century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 degrees to 0.4 degrees C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation as solar irradiance decreases. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 degrees to 2 degrees C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.
Shindell
D T
DT
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA.
Schmidt
G A
GA
Mann
M E
ME
Rind
D
D
Waple
A
A