Is the National Health Service at the edge of chaos?
We used chaos and complexity theory to analyse waiting-list data (1998-2001) pertaining to over 20 000 National Health Service (NHS) patients from general surgical, orthopaedic and neurosurgical units across England. Plots of frequency versus quarter-to-quarter change in waiting times revealed a power relation which seems independent of surgical specialty and hospital location. One interpretation of these findings is that, for the period in question, the NHS was a system at the edge of chaos. This hypothesis might explain why waiting times have resisted attempts at shortening.
Papadopoulos
M C
MC
Department of Neurosurgery, Hurstwood Park Neurological Centre, Hayward's Heath RH16 4EX, UK. MPapadopoulos@compuserve.com
Hadjitheodossiou
M
M
Chrysostomou
C
C
Hardwidge
C
C
Bell
B A
BA
D000553:Ambulatory Care / Q000458:organization & administration / Q000592:standards; D006801:Humans; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D012017:Referral and Consultation / Q000458:organization & administration / Q000592:standards; D013222:State Medicine / Q000458:organization & administration / Q000592:standards*; D006113:United Kingdom; D014850:Waiting Lists