title: Is the National Health Service at the edge of chaos?
abstract: We used chaos and complexity theory to analyse waiting-list data (1998-2001) pertaining to over 20 000 National Health Service (NHS) patients from general surgical, orthopaedic and neurosurgical units across England. Plots of frequency versus quarter-to-quarter change in waiting times revealed a power relation which seems independent of surgical specialty and hospital location. One interpretation of these findings is that, for the period in question, the NHS was a system at the edge of chaos. This hypothesis might explain why waiting times have resisted attempts at shortening.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurosurgery, Hurstwood Park Neurological Centre, Hayward's Heath RH16 4EX, UK. MPapadopoulos@compuserve.com
authors.forename: M C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Papadopoulos
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hadjitheodossiou
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Chrysostomou
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Hardwidge
authors.forename: B A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Bell
mesh_terms: D000553:Ambulatory Care / Q000458:organization & administration / Q000592:standards; D006801:Humans; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D012017:Referral and Consultation / Q000458:organization & administration / Q000592:standards; D013222:State Medicine / Q000458:organization & administration / Q000592:standards*; D006113:United Kingdom; D014850:Waiting Lists