title: Decision-theoretic designs for pre-phase II screening trials in oncology.
abstract: A Bayesian decision-theoretic method is proposed for conducting small, randomized pre-phase II selection trials. The aim is to improve on the design of Thall and Estey (1993, Statistics in Medicine 12, 1197-1211). Designs are derived that optimize a gain function accounting for current and future patient gains, per-patient cost, and future treatment development cost. To reduce the computational burden associated with backward induction, myopic versions of the design that consider only one, two, or three future decisions at a time are also considered. The designs are compared in the context of a screening trial in acute myelogenous leukemia.
authors.affiliation: Medical and Pharmaceutical Statistics Research Unit, The University of Reading, Earley Gate, UK. n.stallard@reading.ac.uk
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Stallard
authors.forename: P F
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Thall
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D017322:Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003662:Decision Theory; D006801:Humans; D015470:Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute / Q000628:therapy; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000628:therapy*; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data