[An analysis on need and demand for dental service in urban residents of Beijing].
OBJECTIVE
To analyze the needs and demands for dental services in urban residents of Beijing, and to forecast developmental trends of dental demand in the future.


METHODS
There were 1,517 subjects examined by a stratified, clustering, random sampling, and a questionnaire survey were completed.


RESULTS
The prevalence of oral diseases was 97.6%, but only 31.5% of subjects visited the dentist in a year, the total number of residents who had need of dental care were 4,412,010 more than that of demand level. Potential demand was mainly due to the negative awareness of people and problem from service provider. It was predicted that, if the potential demand caused by awareness and service provider were satisfied, the demand for dental care would increase by 69.4% and 13.2%, respectively. By the year of 2005, the demand will increase by 1.14%, and the value will be 3.76% in 2010.


CONCLUSIONS
A substantial discrepancy is found between oral disease presence and demand for dental service. The levels of demand are also irrational. The large potential demand is caused by both receiver and provider's factors. At last, the future demand for dental care is forecasted under three hypothesis.
Wang
Z
Z
Department of Preventive Dentistry, School of Stomatology, Beijing Medical University, Beijing 100081, China.
Wang
H
H
Cao
C
C
D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003752:Dental Health Services; D005544:Forecasting; D006282:Health Personnel; D006801:Humans; D009059:Mouth Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000628:therapy; D019037:Urban Health Services; D014506:Urban Renewal