Analysis of the infection system of human T-cell leukaemia virus type I based on a mathematical epidemic model.
Human T-cell leukaemia virus type I (HTLV-I) is a retrovirus that causes adult T-cell leukaemia (ATL). HTLV-I has existed in Japanese people for thousands of years. In order to prevent an epidemic of HTLV-I, it is important to explain the infection system by a mathematical approach. By considering the main infection routes in Japan, that is: (i) mother-to-child transmission; (ii) male (husband)-to-female (wife) transmission; and (iii) female (wife)-to-male (husband) transmission, a mathematical model for describing the time-dependent change of the infection proportion can be constructed. An upper bound of the present infection rate per year in male-to-female transmission and that in female-to-male transmission is given by the model, and theoretical results related to HTLV-I infection are also deduced from the mathematical model. A simulation study based on the present model demonstrates the theoretical results relating to the HTLV-I infection.
Eshima
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N
Department of Medical Information Analysis, Faculty of Medicine, Oita Medical University, Oita 879-5593, Japan. eshima@oita-med.ac.jp
Tabata
M
M
Kikuchi
H
H
Karukaya
S
S
Taguchi
T
T
D003198:Computer Simulation; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D015490:HTLV-I Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D015368:Human T-lymphotropic virus 1 / Q000254:growth & development*; D006801:Humans; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological