title: Statistical elements of predicting the impact of a variety of odour sources.
abstract: Two key elements in predicting odour response are the estimation of peak (few seconds) ground-level concentrations and the evaluation of the likelihood of a consequent adverse response. Peak rather than ensemble-average concentrations are not easily predicted by current dispersion models. The required peak-to-mean ratios depend on source characteristics, downwind distance and atmospheric stability. Using recent wind-tunnel simulations for four types of sources and two atmospheric stabilities and various measures of intermittency and non-stationarity, different regimes of behaviour are resolvable. A set of peak-to-mean ratios for a specified probability of exceedance is recommended and their practicality discussed.
authors.affiliation: Katestone Scientific, 9 Sherwood Road, Toowong, Queensland, 4066, Australia.
authors.forename: P R
authors.initials: PR
authors.lastname: Best
authors.forename: K E
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Lunney
authors.forename: C A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Killip
mesh_terms: D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005544:Forecasting; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009812:Odorants; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014919:Wind