title: A statistical riverine litter propagation model.
abstract: A statistical riverine litter propagation (RLP) model based on importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC) simulation was developed in order to predict the frequency distribution of certain litter types in river reaches. The model was preliminarily calibrated for plastic sheeting by a pilot study conducted on the River Taff, Wales (UK). Litter movement was predominantly controlled by reach characteristics, such as vegetation overhang and water-course obstructions. These affects were modeled in the simulations, by utilizing geometric distributions of river reaches in the time domain. The proposed model satisfactorily simulated the dosing experiments performed at the River Taff. It was concluded from the preliminary calibrations that, the RLP model can be efficiently utilized to portray litter propagation at any arbitrarily selected river site, provided that the stream flows and reach characteristics are calibrated by representative probability distributions of similar sections. Therefore, the RLP model can be considered as a new statistical technique that can predict litter propagation in river sections.
authors.affiliation: Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey. cabal@mmf.gazi.edu.tr
authors.forename: C E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Balas
authors.forename: A T
authors.initials: AT
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: S L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Simmons
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ergin
mesh_terms: D002138:Calibration; D005544:Forecasting; D005735:Garbage; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D010944:Plants; D014872:Water Movements; D014873:Water Pollutants
chemical_list: D014873:Water Pollutants