title: How to show that unicorn milk is a chronobiotic: the regression-to-the-mean statistical artifact.
abstract: Few chronobiologists may be aware of the regression-to-the-mean (RTM) statistical artifact, even though it may have far-reaching influences on chronobiological data. With the aid of simulated measurements of the circadian rhythm phase of body temperature and a completely bogus stimulus (unicorn milk), we explain what RTM is and provide examples relevant to chronobiology. We show how RTM may lead to erroneous conclusions regarding individual differences in phase responses to rhythm disturbances and how it may appear as though unicorn milk has phase-shifting effects and can successfully treat some circadian rhythm disorders. Guidelines are provided to ensure RTM effects are minimized in chronobiological investigations.
authors.affiliation: School for Health, University of Durham, Stockton-on-Tees, United Kingdom
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Atkinson
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Waterhouse
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Reilly
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Edwards
mesh_terms: D001699:Biometry; D001831:Body Temperature / Q000502:physiology; D002909:Chronobiology Phenomena; D002940:Circadian Rhythm / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012107:Research Design