title: A GIS/simulation framework for assessing change in water yield over large spatial scales.
abstract: Recent legislation to initiate vegetation management in the Central Sierra hydrologic region of California includes a focus on corresponding changes in water yield. This served as the impetus for developing a combined geographic information system (GIS) and simulation assessment framework. Using the existing vegetation density condition, together with proposed rules for thinning to reduce fire risk, a set of simulation model inputs were generated for examining the impact of the thinning scenario on water yield. The approach allows results to be expressed as the mean and standard deviation of change in water yield for each 1-km2 map cell that is thinned. Values for groups of cells are aggregated for typical watershed units using area-weighted averaging. Wet, dry, and average precipitation years were simulated over a large region. Where snow plays an important role in hydrologic processes, the simulated change in water yield was less than 0.5% of expected annual runoff for a typical watershed. Such small changes would be undetectable in the field using conventional stream flow analysis. These results suggest that use of water yield increases to help justify forest-thinning activities or offset their cost will be difficult.
authors.affiliation: Environmental Sciences and Computational Physics and Engineering Divisions, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6038, USA.
authors.forename: Dale D
authors.initials: DD
authors.lastname: Huff
authors.forename: William W
authors.initials: WW
authors.lastname: Hargrove
authors.forename: Robin
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Graham
authors.forename: Ned
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Nikolov
authors.forename: M Lynn
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Tharp
mesh_terms: D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005843:Geography; D007256:Information Systems; D011891:Rain; D012914:Snow; D014197:Trees; D014872:Water Movements; D014881:Water Supply