title: Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population.
abstract: The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological, and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes ("extreme events"). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multiagent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.
authors.affiliation: Oxford Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Oxford University, Oxford, OX1 3LB, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Lamper
authors.forename: S D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Howison
authors.forename: N F
authors.initials: NF
authors.lastname: Johnson
mesh_terms: D005075:Biological Evolution; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011157:Population Dynamics