title: Effects of baseline risk information on social and individual choices.
abstract: This article analyzes preferences for risk reductions in the context of individual and societal decision making. The effect of information on baseline risk is analyzed in both contexts. The results indicate that if individuals are to imagine that they suffer from 1 low-risk and 1 high-risk ailment, and are offered a specified identical absolute risk reduction, a majority will ceteris paribus opt for treatment of the low-risk ailment. A different preference structure is elicited when priority questions are framed as social choices. Here, a majority will prefer to treat the high-risk group of patients. The preference reversal demonstrates the extent to which baseline risk information can influence preferences in different choice settings. It is argued that presentation of baseline risk information may induce framing effects that lead to nonoptimal resource allocations. A solution to this problem may be to not present group-specific baseline risk information when eliciting preferences.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense. dgh@sam.sdu.dk
authors.forename: Dorte
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Gyrd-Hansen
authors.forename: Ivar Sønbø
authors.initials: IS
authors.lastname: Kristiansen
authors.forename: Jørgen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Nexøe
authors.forename: Jesper Bo
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Nielsen
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D002755:Choice Behavior; D003142:Communication; D003258:Consumer Behavior / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003718:Denmark; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D010342:Patient Acceptance of Health Care / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012938:Social Perception; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires