title: Winter planning. Seasonal cycles.
abstract: It is possible to forecast emergency admissions and bed requirements with considerable accuracy up to a year in advance. A model is being developed which would analyse the effects of weather, flu epidemics and different surges in demand. The discharge pattern of many hospitals indicates a rush to discharge by the weekend that could raise concerns about appropriate care.
authors.affiliation: Manchester School of Management, University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology.
authors.forename: Nathan
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Proudlove
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Brown
mesh_terms: D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D010343:Patient Admission / Q000639:trends*; D010351:Patient Discharge / Q000639:trends*; D010934:Planning Techniques; D012621:Seasons; D013222:State Medicine / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006113:United Kingdom