title: Bedside quantification of atherosclerosis severity for cardiovascular risk stratification: a prospective cohort study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We sought to assess the ability of a new noninvasive method to quantify atherosclerosis severity and to examine its power to predict cardiovascular events.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Drug prevention of cardiovascular events is effective but costly, leading to a debate about who should receive this treatment. Patient selection is often based on surrogate markers, but quantification of atherosclerosis severity is desirable.
  
  
  METHODS
  Atherosclerosis severity was quantified by determination of specific aortic wall elastance in transthoracic echocardiography, applying the biomechanics of pulse wave propagation. After validating the method in 52 patients by measuring aortic plaque burden in transesophageal echo directly, another 336 patients were prospectively studied by monitoring atherosclerotic events at one year and comparing the results with conventional risk stratification.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Specific aortic elastance was well correlated with plaque burden (p < 0.0001) and largely independent of confounding variables. Specific aortic elastance predicted the primary end point of "atherosclerotic death, myocardial infarction or stroke" at one year (p < 0.0002). Event rate at one year in the lowest specific elastance tertile was 1.8% (CI 0.0% to 4.3%), in the middle tertile 5.4% (CI 1.1% to 9.7%) and in the highest tertile 12.7% (CI 6.3% to 19%). Secondary end points supported these findings. Stepwise multivariate analysis identified specific aortic elastance, prior atherosclerotic events and left ventricular ejection fraction as independent risk predictors. Specific elastance was of incremental value to clinically identified variables.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Bedside measurement of specific aortic elastance allows assessment of atherosclerosis severity. It predicts the risk for future atherosclerotic events beyond conventional risk factors, promising better targeting of pharmacologic prevention and improved cost effectiveness.
authors.affiliation: Medical Intensive Care Unit, University Hospital, Basel, Switzerland. Patrick.Hunziker@unibas.ch
authors.forename: Patrick R
authors.initials: PR
authors.lastname: Hunziker
authors.forename: Christophe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Imsand
authors.forename: Dagmar
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Keller
authors.forename: Niki
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Hess
authors.forename: Vânia
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Barbosa
authors.forename: Fabian
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Nietlispach
authors.forename: Noah
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Liel-Cohen
authors.forename: Arthur E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Weyman
authors.forename: Matthias
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pfisterer
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Buser
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001011:Aorta / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000503:physiopathology; D001161:Arteriosclerosis / Q000150:complications* / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000503:physiopathology; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000209:etiology* / Q000503:physiopathology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018619:Echocardiography, Doppler, Pulsed / Q000379:methods*; D017548:Echocardiography, Transesophageal; D004548:Elasticity; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D019095:Point-of-Care Systems; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index