[Establishment and initial utilization of an arithmetic model of chronic hepatic diseases].
OBJECTIVE
An arithmetic model was established to reflect the natural development of chronic hepatitis B, and to help decision making in public health.


METHODS
The frame of this model was composed of 6 states - chronic hepatitis B (CHB), natural recovery (NR), compensated cirrhosis (CIR), decompensated cirrhosis (DEC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death (DEA). It was supposed that each state would develop into the other possible states at different rates after different years. According to many related reports, 15 values or functions of transfer rates were calculated, and on the ground of them the present model - the Foxpro program was established. Hypothetical CHB and other patients had been introduced to simulate the natural course over 55 years.


RESULTS
It was shown that the observation period when 50% of NR, CIR, DEC and HCC were developed from CHB were 3, 11, 20 and 24 years respectively. The CHB, CIR, DEC and HCC patients could last 30, 12, 4 and less than 1 year respectively before half of them died. At the 30(th) year, proportions of death were 41.3% from HCC, 33.0% from DEC and 25.7% from the other causes.


CONCLUSIONS
After the comparison between the main results of the model and real reports from the past years, it could be concluded that the model was reliable.
Zhang
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P
Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang 050017, China.
Liu
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S
Liu
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D
Liu
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D019694:Hepatitis B, Chronic / Q000150:complications* / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000209:etiology; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000209:etiology; D008433:Mathematics; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015996:Survival Rate