title: [Prognostic model of drug abuse and HIV infection morbidity among youth].
abstract: The description of prognostication model the distribution process of a narcotism (the heroine) among youth of large city is given. The model is developed with the purpose of study of a consequence of a narcotism among the teenagers and youth, which use a intravenous drugs user and have high risk of infection by a HIV-infection. The results of settlement researches heroine epidemic process in large city with the population about 1 million on retrospective per 10 years are submitted. The forecast of number of drug users on prospect per 5 years is made. It allows to estimate long-term consequences of a narcotism, as "has sunk down" for powerful epidemic AIDS in city in nearest 10 years.
authors.affiliation: Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, Moscow, Russia.
authors.forename: B V
authors.initials: BV
authors.lastname: Boev
authors.forename: V M
authors.initials: VM
authors.lastname: Bondarenko
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D006556:Heroin Dependence / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011379:Prognosis; D012426:Russia / Q000453:epidemiology; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology