Positive feedback, memory, and the predictability of earthquakes.
We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities." The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive feedback of the seismic activity on its release rate. The most important mechanisms for such positive feedback are presented. We solve analytically a simple model of geometrical positive feedback in which the stress shadow cast by the last large earthquake is progressively fragmented by the increasing tectonic stress.
Sammis
C G
CG
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0740, USA. sammis@usc.edu
Sornette
D
D
D004190:Disasters; D030141:Feedback, Psychological; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008568:Memory