title: Self-organization, the cascade model, and natural hazards.
abstract: We consider the frequency-size statistics of two natural hazards, forest fires and landslides. Both appear to satisfy power-law (fractal) distributions to a good approximation under a wide variety of conditions. Two simple cellular-automata models have been proposed as analogs for this observed behavior, the forest fire model for forest fires and the sand pile model for landslides. The behavior of these models can be understood in terms of a self-similar inverse cascade. For the forest fire model the cascade consists of the coalescence of clusters of trees; for the sand pile model the cascade consists of the coalescence of metastable regions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA. turcotte@geology.cornell.edu
authors.forename: Donald L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Turcotte
authors.forename: Bruce D
authors.initials: BD
authors.lastname: Malamud
authors.forename: Fausto
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Guzzetti
authors.forename: Paola
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Reichenbach