title: Comparison of treadmill scores with physician estimates of diagnosis and prognosis in patients with coronary artery disease.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Our purpose was to compare exercise test scores and ST measurements with a physician's estimation of the probability of the presence and severity of angiographic disease and the risk of death. The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association exercise testing guidelines provide equations to calculate treadmill scores and recommend their use to improve the predictive accuracy of the standard exercise test. However, if physicians can estimate the probability of coronary artery disease and prognosis as well as the scores, there is no reason to add this complexity to test interpretation.
  
  
  METHODS
  A clinical exercise test was performed and an angiographic database was used to print patient summaries and treadmill reports. The clinical/treadmill test reports were sent to expert cardiologists and to 2 other groups, including randomly selected cardiologists and internists. They classified the patients summarized in the reports as having a high, low, or intermediate probability for the presence of any severe angiographic disease and estimated a numerical probability from 0% to 100%. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine survival status of the patients.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Twenty-six percent of the patients had severe angiographic disease, and the annual mortality rate for the population was 2%. Forty-five expert cardiologists returned estimates on 473 patients, 37 randomly chosen practicing cardiologists returned estimates on 202 patients, 29 randomly chosen practicing internists returned estimates on 162 patients, 13 academic cardiologists returned estimates on 145 patients, and 27 academic internists returned estimates on 272 patients. When probability estimates for presence and severity of angiographic disease were compared, in general, the treadmill scores were superior to physicians' and ST analysis at predicting severe angiographic disease. When prognosis was estimated, treadmill prognostic scores did as well as expert cardiologists and better than most other physician groups.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Estimates of the presence of clinically significant and severe angiographic coronary artery disease provided by scores were superior to physician estimates and ST analysis alone. Estimates of prognosis provided by scores were similar to the estimates made by expert cardiologists and more accurate than the estimates made by most other physician groups.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, Stanford University at Palo Alto Veterans Affairs Health Care Center, Palo Alto, Calif 94304, USA.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lipinski
authors.forename: Victor
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Froelicher
authors.forename: Eddie
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Atwood
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Tseitlin
authors.forename: Barry
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Franklin
authors.forename: Lars
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Osterberg
authors.forename: Dat
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Do
authors.forename: Jonathan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Myers
mesh_terms: D002983:Clinical Competence; D017023:Coronary Angiography; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000145:classification / Q000175:diagnosis*; D004562:Electrocardiography; D005080:Exercise Test; D017408:Guidelines as Topic; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012372:ROC Curve; D012720:Severity of Illness Index