title: Predictive value of immunologic and virologic markers after long or short duration of HIV-1 infection.
abstract: Laboratory markers that predict HIV-1 disease progression include plasma viral burden, CD4+ T-cell count, and CD38 expression on CD8 T cells. To better understand whether the predictive value of these markers is dependent on how long an individual has been infected, we analyzed data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study early (median = 2.8 years) and late (median = 8.7 years) in the course of infection. Overall, we found that HIV RNA and CD38 levels were similarly predictive of AIDS early on compared with a relatively weaker CD4 cell count signal. Later in the course of infection, CD38 level remained the strongest predictive marker and CD4 cell count registered a marked increase in prognostic power. Among untreated individuals, there was little difference in prognosis (median time to AIDS) associated with given marker values regardless of infection duration. The prognosis given a specific viral load level tended to deteriorate late in the course of infection among those undergoing treatment with monotherapy or combination therapy, however. These data provide a unique historical look at the predictive value and prognostic significance of HIV-1 disease markers at different stages of infection in a large cohort, with direct relevance to current patients who are untreated or for whom treatment is ineffective.
authors.affiliation: UCLA School of Medicine and Center for AIDS Research, Los Angeles, California 90095-1475, USA.
authors.forename: Janis V
authors.initials: JV
authors.lastname: Giorgi
authors.forename: Robert H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Lyles
authors.forename: Jose L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Matud
authors.forename: Traci E
authors.initials: TE
authors.lastname: Yamashita
authors.forename: John W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Mellors
authors.forename: Lance E
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Hultin
authors.forename: Beth D
authors.initials: BD
authors.lastname: Jamieson
authors.forename: Joseph B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Margolick
authors.forename: Charles R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Rinaldo
authors.forename: John P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Phair
authors.forename: Roger
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Detels
mesh_terms: D036541:ADP-ribosyl Cyclase; D051997:ADP-ribosyl Cyclase 1; D000328:Adult; D015703:Antigens, CD; D000943:Antigens, Differentiation / Q000378:metabolism*; D015415:Biomarkers; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D018414:CD8-Positive T-Lymphocytes / Q000276:immunology / Q000378:metabolism; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000276:immunology / Q000503:physiopathology* / Q000821:virology; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000302:isolation & purification / Q000502:physiology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008562:Membrane Glycoproteins; D008875:Middle Aged; D009244:NAD+ Nucleosidase / Q000378:metabolism*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012367:RNA, Viral / Q000097:blood*; D013997:Time Factors; D019562:Viral Load
chemical_list: D015703:Antigens, CD; D000943:Antigens, Differentiation; D015415:Biomarkers; D008562:Membrane Glycoproteins; D012367:RNA, Viral; D036541:ADP-ribosyl Cyclase; C498154:CD38 protein, human; D009244:NAD+ Nucleosidase; D051997:ADP-ribosyl Cyclase 1