title: A two-factor model for predicting when a couple will divorce: exploratory analyses using 14-year longitudinal data.
abstract: This article examines 14-year longitudinal data and attempts to create a post hoc model that uses Time-1 data to "predict" the length of time the marriage will last. The sample consists of the 21 couples (of 79 studied) who divorced over a 14-year period. A two-factor model is proposed. One factor is the amount of unregulated volatile positive and negative affect in the marriage, and this factor predicts a short marriage length for the divorcing couples. A second factor is called "neutral affective style," and this factor predicts a long marriage length for the divorcing couples. This model is compared to a Time-1 model of ailing marriage in which Time-1 marital satisfaction is used to predict the timing of divorce.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Personality Research, Department of Psychology, University of California, USA. jgottman@gottman.com
authors.forename: John Mordechai
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Gottman
authors.forename: Robert Wayne
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Levenson
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000339:Affect / Q000145:classification; D003220:Conflict, Psychological; D004243:Divorce / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007196:Indiana; D007398:Interpersonal Relations; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008393:Marriage / Q000523:psychology*; D008960:Models, Psychological; D010549:Personal Satisfaction; D012044:Regression Analysis; D013995:Time